Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 95L)

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wxman22
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#61 Postby wxman22 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:16 am

The Euro is onboard now.

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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#62 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:23 am

We may have yet another event offshore of TX in which a system forms very quickly with relatively low chances of development by the NHC.
Vorticity is offshore now, lets see if 60-72 hrs is enough for it to organize.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#63 Postby Wampadawg » Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:24 am


This thing has more twists than a spy thriller movie!
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#64 Postby hurricane2025 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:34 am

Sure chances will be raise later today
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#65 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:34 am

Still pretty much across the board crickets for this one. A few local mentions but not much else. Houston needs some rain though, but not 18".
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#66 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:51 am

Interesting how the ICON has whatever forms move
NE later in the period.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#67 Postby Wampadawg » Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:53 am

SoupBone wrote:Still pretty much across the board crickets for this one. A few local mentions but not much else. Houston needs some rain though, but not 18".

Perhaps it will go down as the storm no one wanted to talk about ,or maybe NHC knows something the models don’t.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#68 Postby wxman22 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:09 am

There wont be much talk about this until the NHC raises formation chances. I would be surprised if they were not raised at 2pm.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#69 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:11 am

Wampadawg wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Still pretty much across the board crickets for this one. A few local mentions but not much else. Houston needs some rain though, but not 18".

Perhaps it will go down as the storm no one wanted to talk about ,or maybe NHC knows something the models don’t.



The lack of Wxman57 too much in this thread is why it hasn't jumped too much. This is his local area too.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#70 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:12 am

wxman22 wrote:There wont be much talk about this until the NHC raises formation chances. I would be surprised if they were not raised at 2pm.


Why would them raising the chances change that?
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#71 Postby underthwx » Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:14 am

wxman57 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:I'm not really seeing any local buzz about this. I guess no one is really concerned at this point. Strange, honestly.


The only concern we have is that it may not bring us as much rain as we need.


If the system, in whatever form it takes, goes in further south of Houston, I would tend to agree. But, some cloud cover and a little rain is a luxury after this stretch of heat...
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#72 Postby Wampadawg » Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:15 am

:cheesy: :cheesy:
SoupBone wrote:
wxman22 wrote:There wont be much talk about this until the NHC raises formation chances. I would be surprised if they were not raised at 2pm.


Why would them raising the chances change that?

From what I have seen ,they tend to dismiss when the chances are low, just my observation
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#73 Postby wxman22 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:18 am

SoupBone wrote:
wxman22 wrote:There wont be much talk about this until the NHC raises formation chances. I would be surprised if they were not raised at 2pm.


Why would them raising the chances change that?

Isn't that obvious?. The NHC is the official source for TC forecasting,the media and government agencies follow what he NHC/NWS forecast most of the time.Makes since for people to not be talking much about it when they only have it at 20% right now.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#74 Postby Wampadawg » Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:20 am

Wampadawg wrote::cheesy: :cheesy:
SoupBone wrote:
wxman22 wrote:There wont be much talk about this until the NHC raises formation chances. I would be surprised if they were not raised at 2pm.


Why would them raising the chances change that?

From what I have seen ,they tend to dismiss when the chances are low, just my observation.The latest GFS not buying it
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#75 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Jun 27, 2022 12:03 pm

There is some decent 925mb vorticity south of Louisiana now.

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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#76 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 12:18 pm

tropicwatch wrote:There is some decent 925mb vorticity south of Louisiana now.

https://i.imgur.com/S7s2bXy.gif


Real-time trends show something is trying to develop. I don't really care what model trends are now at this point concerning cyclogenesis. Watch the real-time trends.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#77 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Jun 27, 2022 12:25 pm

There is enough model support for this to keep a close eye on it. The slow movement will certainly help and shear seems to be light.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#78 Postby antonlsu » Mon Jun 27, 2022 12:26 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
tropicwatch wrote:There is some decent 925mb vorticity south of Louisiana now.

https://i.imgur.com/S7s2bXy.gif


Real-time trends show something is trying to develop. I don't really care what model trends are now at this point concerning cyclogenesis. Watch the real-time trends.



Real time trends?
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#79 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 12:28 pm

antonlsu wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
tropicwatch wrote:There is some decent 925mb vorticity south of Louisiana now.

https://i.imgur.com/S7s2bXy.gif


Real-time trends show something is trying to develop. I don't really care what model trends are now at this point concerning cyclogenesis. Watch the real-time trends.



Real time trends?


I'm referring to what is happening in reality (satellite/vorticity/radar etc.) These methods of observation overrule any model.
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Re: Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico

#80 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 27, 2022 12:57 pm

Stays at 20%
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