Tropical Wave over the Western Caribbean

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Tropical Wave over the Western Caribbean

#1 Postby AJC3 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 10:50 pm

Since there's an actual wave that some of model guidance is showing at least some weak development, there's no problem with giving this wave its own thread.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical is along 16W from 02N to 15N, moving W at 15-20 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N
to 10N between 14W and 20W.
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Re: NHC area of interest over the Atlantic (tropical wave near 31W)

#2 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:55 pm

For us to have a need to create this kind of tropical wave thread in late June, yikes. :eek:

I can't imagine how intense August and September will be.
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Re: NHC area of interest over the Atlantic (tropical wave near 31W)

#3 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:07 am

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become conducive for
gradual development later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at around 15 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Image
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Re: NHC area of interest over the Atlantic (tropical wave near 31W)

#4 Postby AJC3 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:34 am

weeniepatrol wrote:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become conducive for
gradual development later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at around 15 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


https://i.imgur.com/NVdOeLR.png


It's interesting to see NHC mention this wave in the TWO because the wave the models are actually picking up on is the one farther east at 18W.

Edit: Upon further review, it looks like the wave near 18W actually catches up to the wave being mentioned by NHC (near 31W) . The waves are forecast to merge either between 40-50W WED-THU (ECM solution) or between 50-60W THU-FRI (GFS solution).

Either way, I'll re-title/tweak this thread a bit.


An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 18W, south of 16N
and moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 04N to 10N and between 14W and 22W.

Another tropical wave has its axis along 31W, south of 15N and
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 09N and between 26W and 36W.


I think what we'll see over the next few days is the NHC will start to mention some interaction between these two waves mentioned above, since that's what both the ECM and GFS are showing from mid-late week. In any event, I adjusted the thread title, however I plan on posting the TWD sections for both waves over the next several days, based on what I think will take place later this week.

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Re: NHC area of interest over the Atlantic (tropical wave near 31W)

#5 Postby IsabelaWeather » Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:35 am

Wow, I was amazed to see this lemon pop up. This one per the nhc looks to be headed right for the northern windwards and GA's. Will hopefully bring some rain.
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Re: NHC area of interest over the Atlantic (tropical wave near 31W)

#6 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Jun 27, 2022 4:01 am

I would expect an invest very soon , maybe later today.
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Re: NHC area of interest over the Atlantic (tropical wave near 31W)

#7 Postby SFLcane » Mon Jun 27, 2022 4:34 am

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Re: NHC area of interest over the Atlantic (tropical wave near 32W)

#8 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Jun 27, 2022 5:26 am

Is it June or september! :double:
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Re: NHC area of interest over the Atlantic (tropical wave near 32W)

#9 Postby ChrisH-UK » Mon Jun 27, 2022 6:05 am

Models have been showing further hurricanes developing off the current chain of tropical waves on and off over the last week or so. The one after 94L has had a circulation since the 25th and at times has looked better than 94L.
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Re: NHC area of interest over the Atlantic (tropical wave near 32W)

#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 27, 2022 7:22 am

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 32W,
extending from 02N to 16N and moving W around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N and between 30W and
40W.
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Re: NHC area of interest over the Atlantic (tropical wave near 32W)

#11 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:15 am

GFS tries to develop something but shear kills it before reaching the northern Leeward Islands.
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GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
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Re: NHC area of interest over the Atlantic (tropical wave near 32W)

#12 Postby SFLcane » Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:32 am

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Re: NHC area of interest over the Atlantic (tropical wave near 32W)

#13 Postby toad strangler » Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:34 am

AutoPenalti wrote:GFS tries to develop something but shear kills it before reaching the northern Leeward Islands.


That would be typical of a normal late June / early July.
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Re: NHC area of interest over the Atlantic (tropical wave near 38W)

#14 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:47 am

12z has this a bit stronger, maybe weak T.S. off se florida coast.
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Re: NHC area of interest over the Atlantic (tropical wave near 38W)

#15 Postby SFLcane » Mon Jun 27, 2022 12:02 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:12z has this a bit stronger, maybe weak T.S. off se florida coast.


Yea, On the east side of an ULL. Gotta see what happens when we mix all these waves with the TUTT there.
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Re: NHC area of interest over the Atlantic (tropical wave near 38W)

#16 Postby Blown Away » Mon Jun 27, 2022 12:14 pm

SFLcane wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:12z has this a bit stronger, maybe weak T.S. off se florida coast.


Yea, On the east side of an ULL. Gotta see what happens when we mix all these waves with the TUTT there.


Image
12Z GFS hinting this low will develop before crashing into Hispaniola and then back to a TD/TS into SFL in 10-11 days... Lots of land & upper level obstacles for this TW...
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Re: NHC area of interest over the Atlantic (tropical wave near 38W)

#17 Postby Nuno » Mon Jun 27, 2022 12:51 pm

Blown Away wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:12z has this a bit stronger, maybe weak T.S. off se florida coast.


Yea, On the east side of an ULL. Gotta see what happens when we mix all these waves with the TUTT there.


https://i.imgur.com/tSfHg6V.gif
12Z GFS hinting this low will develop before crashing into Hispaniola and then back to a TD/TS into SFL in 10-11 days... Lots of land & upper level obstacles for this TW...


ah yes, the classic Greater Antilles shield :lol:
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Re: NHC area of interest over the Atlantic (tropical wave near 38W)

#18 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Jun 27, 2022 2:13 pm

NAVGEM has stronger storm north of Hispaniola on 12z run.
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Re: NHC area of interest over the Atlantic (tropical wave near 40W)

#19 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 27, 2022 6:44 pm

8 PM.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions could become conducive for some gradual
development later this week while the system moves west-
northwestward at around 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: NHC area of interest over the Atlantic (tropical wave near 40W)

#20 Postby Blown Away » Mon Jun 27, 2022 7:05 pm

Image
18z GFS a little more bullish with our TW. TS for the NE Caribbean & SE Bahamas and recurving hurricane off the SE CONUS. Not sure if this will be a quick recurve after the NE Caribbean, previous model runs were into Florida. Lots of obstacles for this TW.
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