Suspect Area in Bahamas (ULL)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1805
Age: 65
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Suspect Area in Bahamas (ULL)

#1 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:31 am

Just noticed this area in bahamas that has what appears to be a circulation and that classic look.
Shear seems to be high but might be a tad lower directly over the center,
Hope it was alright to start thread.
2 likes   

User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1805
Age: 65
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: Suspect Area in Bahamas

#2 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:32 pm

An upper-level trough just east of the Florida peninsula is inducing a surface trough from 22N72W to 26N68W along with scattered moderate/isolated strong convection from 21N-26N between 71W-77W.


This was in the atlantic tropical weather discussion
1 likes   

ChrisH-UK
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 416
Joined: Sat May 29, 2021 8:22 am

Re: Suspect Area in Bahamas

#3 Postby ChrisH-UK » Mon Jun 27, 2022 4:08 pm

Looks like it has a rotation going on but as you can see it has shear to contend with.

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3865
Age: 60
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: West Melbourne, Florida
Contact:

Re: Suspect Area in Bahamas

#4 Postby AJC3 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 7:02 pm

ChrisH-UK wrote:Looks like it has a rotation going on but as you can see it has shear to contend with.

https://i.imgur.com/uVmDcWx.png


As is sometimes the case with disturbances in the subtropics, the shear is a "double-edged sword", as it's also quite divergent, which is giving a significant boost to the convection in that area, but will also keep the system from organizing (becoming vertically stacked). When and if the shear abates, so will the forced ascent that is aiding thunderstorm generation. We'll see what happens over the next few days. Whatever the case, conditions should stay unsettled down there as the mid-upper trough just to the W-NW won't be moving all that much, it just sort of sits in place and weakens.
1 likes   

User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1805
Age: 65
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: Suspect Area in Bahamas

#5 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Jun 27, 2022 7:21 pm

An upper-level area of low pressure over the eastern Bahamas is yet another area to watch this week. The spin from this low was clearly evident on visible satellite loops, with southwesterly shear pushing convection toward its northeast side. Such systems do not typically develop into tropical cyclones unless the low pressure can “drill down” to the surface, and none of the reliable models or ensembles are predicting development. However, the system may enhance typical summertime convection over Florida as it drifts south and west.

Jeff Masters contributed to this post.

From Bob Henson and Jeff Masters
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Dougiefresh, duilaslol, KirbyDude25 and 42 guests