2022 Madden-Julian Oscillation

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Steve
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Re: 2022 Madden-Julian Oscillation

#21 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 19, 2022 11:47 pm

Be thankful this MJO progression isn’t two weeks from now if the Global Ensembles bias-corrected output is even close to what happens. If some of those stronger waves would have been on this side of the ocean, look out. If September is going to be busy, watch to see if after the first week of the month, it’s not coming back around again. 2 and 3 you really have to look for continental hits in September. But for now it gets the rain in the pattern from PTC4. Fair shot for a random US landfall right before Labor Day. CMC maybe telegraphed it first, but if we are in Phase 3 end of August…. Tomorrows JMA MJO forecast would verify if this should be taken seriously.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ncpe.shtml
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Re: 2022 Madden-Julian Oscillation

#22 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Sep 10, 2022 8:34 am

The MJO has been weak and incoherent for the past few weeks and will likely stay that way for a while.
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Re: 2022 Madden-Julian Oscillation

#23 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 10, 2022 12:37 pm

Iceresistance wrote:The MJO has been weak and incoherent for the past few weeks and will likely stay that way for a while.


JMA likes the move back to phase 2 next Friday. It got it right last time but did have to back up a couple days in successive runs.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... jman.shtml

Problem is the -VP’s are kind of weird for week 2. For west basin action, you’d want to see the orange and reds in the EPAC, but it’s just neutral. I’ll be wanting to see how that evolves each day and if it verifies or is close, what does that mean for the western Atlantic?

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html
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Re: 2022 Madden-Julian Oscillation

#24 Postby Teban54 » Fri Sep 30, 2022 11:01 pm

Question: What's the relationship between MJO, CCKW and VP anomalies?
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