Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

[Nimbus]

12z Euro has TS Danielle by 120 hours just offshore the MS/AL state line. Moving SSE and intensifying by 144 hrs. Interesting run shaping up

Edit: Looks to be moving back north into Mobile Bay by 150hrs, 992mb. Over 20" of rain showing up along the coast

This run first short wave misses.

[psyclone]

The marine heatwave that has plagued the gulf region increases the risk of a rainbomb for someone regardless of tropical development. I have noticed a drastically higher risk of torrential rain events locally when nearshore waters reach or exceed 88 degrees. We're currently near 90 locally and it looks like we have lots of company.

[Janie2006]

12z Euro has TS Danielle by 120 hours just offshore the MS/AL state line. Moving SSE and intensifying by 144 hrs. Interesting run shaping up

Edit: Looks to be moving back north into Mobile Bay by 150hrs, 992mb. Over 20" of rain showing up along the coast

You need to stop that.

[AtlanticWind]

Another situation that will likely require PTC advisories at some point.

[Emmett_Brown]

Yes, let's hope the 12Z Euro is wrong, it depicts a slow moving storm that could drop a lot of rain. We want these weak systems to move a little faster.

[captainbarbossa19]

Yes, let's hope the 12Z Euro is wrong, it depicts a slow moving storm that could drop a lot of rain. We want these weak systems to move a little faster.

I would also like for it to head towards Texas. Anything to break down this heat dome would be nice. Looks like the main difference of the 12z and 0z is that the system forms slightly closer to the coast which allows it to get trapped between ridges. If it forms further south, the ridge might be able to build more on top and send it west.

[weeniepatrol]

[Nederlander]

Yes, let's hope the 12Z Euro is wrong, it depicts a slow moving storm that could drop a lot of rain. We want these weak systems to move a little faster.

I’ll take anything at this point. I’m in the 700-800 KBDI range north of Houston. Haven’t gotten lucky with any of the random pop up showers that occasionally occur.

[skyline385]

Has any model showed it move towards Texas? All the runs from today seem to be aiming at LA or east of it.

[Nimbus]

Has any model showed it move towards Texas? All the runs from today seem to be aiming at LA or east of it.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

Its Sunday, they want everybody to be prepared so they start with the eastern scenario.
Looks more like Tx/Louisiana border to me but that is if the system develops just southwest of NOLA and the high pulls it back northwest.

[skyline385]

Going to be a real rainmaker if EURO verifies. All the precipitation is also going to be east of the system it looks like.

[toad strangler]

More 12z EURO output
Analyze at your own risk!

 http://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1546221127869022208




 http://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1546227423888510977

[Cpv17]

Has any model showed it move towards Texas? All the runs from today seem to be aiming at LA or east of it.

We need this here in Texas in the worst way. I’ve only had 8.75” here the entire year. Last year at this time I was already nearing 35”. This is the driest it’s been here since 2011.

[captainbarbossa19]

Has any model showed it move towards Texas? All the runs from today seem to be aiming at LA or east of it.

We need this here in Texas in the worst way. I’ve only had 8.75” here the entire year. Last year at this time I was already nearing 35”. This is the driest it’s been here since 2011.

18z GFS is getting closer to us. We need it to keep moving the rain west.

[Wampadawg]

Has any model showed it move towards Texas? All the runs from today seem to be aiming at LA or east of it.

We need this here in Texas in the worst way. I’ve only had 8.75” here the entire year. Last year at this time I was already nearing 35”. This is the driest it’s been here since 2011.

18z GFS is getting closer to us. We need it to keep moving the rain west.

GFS seems to be shifting our way but the way this drought has been,we may just get teased

[Steve]

We’ll see if this early reinforcement shot can hold together as it crosses the lake or if sundown kills it off and it fires up again over the gulf.

https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_ ... fQ%3D%3D#/

[wxman57]

12Z Euro now takes it to Mobile Bay. No rain for Houston. We can continue to enjoy this beautiful, dry, warm weather. It's 103 as of 6pm, but it's a dry heat with only a 68 dew point. Time to go outside and enjoy the warmth!

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of
days over the northern Gulf of Mexico, partially related to a
decaying frontal boundary currently located over the southeastern
United States. Some slow development of this system is possible if
it remains offshore during the middle and latter part of the week
while it moves little. Regardless of development, heavy rains will
be possible along portions of the northern Gulf coast from Louisiana
to the Florida Panhandle over the next several days. For more
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service office and the Weather
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation change through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Products from the Weather Prediction Center can be found at
wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and local National Weather Service products can
be found at weather.gov

Forecaster Cangialosi

[Wampadawg]

12Z Euro now takes it to Mobile Bay. No rain for Houston. We can continue to enjoy this beautiful, dry, warm weather. It's 103 as of 6pm, but it's a dry heat with only a 68 dew point. Time to go outside and enjoy the warmth!

Bahahaaa yea it’s a dry heat !
I am going to try something different “ we do not want rain in South Texas ! Rain stay away

[cycloneye]

The TWO didn't mentioned TD but NHC twitter does.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1546275707252117504