Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

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AJC3
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Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#1 Postby AJC3 » Sun Jul 10, 2022 4:03 am

Since there's a weak surface trough and an area of disturbed weather (albeit a decaying MCS) in this area, plus the model guidance is showing some sort of surface low development over the next few days, I think it's sufficient to start a new thread for potential development.

Post away...
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2022 5:55 am

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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#3 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 10, 2022 6:06 am

Model update ..


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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2022 6:57 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northern Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough of low pressure is expected to develop in the
northern Gulf of Mexico from a decaying frontal boundary currently
located over the southeastern United States. Any development of
this system is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts just
offshore of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline through the middle
to later part of this week. Regardless of development, heavy rains
will be possible along portions of the northern Gulf coastline from
Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next several days. For
more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation change through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin


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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#5 Postby Wampadawg » Sun Jul 10, 2022 8:32 am

Local guys talking early about it lol
https://twitter.com/travisabc13/status/ ... sz2Ox-OHSQ
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#6 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 10, 2022 8:38 am

Main "threat" will be the benefit of more rainfall. I'm pulling for the ECMWF, which puts the weak low inland into SE TX.
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#7 Postby Wampadawg » Sun Jul 10, 2022 8:47 am

wxman57 wrote:Main "threat" will be the benefit of more rainfall. I'm pulling for the ECMWF, which puts the weak low inland into SE TX.

Let’s go Euro!
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#8 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Jul 10, 2022 9:02 am

This reminds me a bit of Barry 2019 though this shouldn't have much of a chance to become a hurricane. Could bring some nice rain to TX though.
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#9 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jul 10, 2022 9:09 am

0z Euro:

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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#10 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Jul 10, 2022 9:45 am

We need the rain here in Lafayette, 12" deficit for the year but more like 18"+ going back to October 2021. The heat indexes have been brutal I would love a rainy week lol.
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#11 Postby Janie2006 » Sun Jul 10, 2022 10:01 am

I’m never going to complain about rain during summer in coastal Alabama. Well, most of the time.

That MCS moved through last night/early this morning and it seems to be maintaining itself, at the least. It’ll be interesting to see what happens. I’ve seen an MCS over the open waters do nothing and I’ve seen them become tropical systems.
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#12 Postby Nimbus » Sun Jul 10, 2022 10:12 am

Digging southwest of NOLA so it will be invest worthy soon.
The longer the trough digs the more likely Euro will verify.
Back side of the trough will keep it out over the gulf drifting west till the next short wave?
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#13 Postby mpic » Sun Jul 10, 2022 10:58 am

I'm all in for some rain, but after 2 months of only a half inch, I don't want heavy downpours. I agree with the poster above that I'll never complain about summer rain again. Bought a new riding mower in May and only used it twice.
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#14 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Jul 10, 2022 11:01 am

wxman57 wrote:Main "threat" will be the benefit of more rainfall. I'm pulling for the ECMWF, which puts the weak low inland into SE TX.


Alright, who kidnapped Wxman57? This could make it too cool for him to ride. Past that I am also rooting for ECMWF!!
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#15 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jul 10, 2022 11:23 am

vbhoutex wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Main "threat" will be the benefit of more rainfall. I'm pulling for the ECMWF, which puts the weak low inland into SE TX.


Alright, who kidnapped Wxman57? This could make it too cool for him to ride. Past that I am also rooting for ECMWF!!


Maybe he wants the rain to create more heat and humidity.
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2022 12:51 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough of low pressure is expected to form in the northern
Gulf of Mexico, partially related to a decaying frontal boundary
currently located over the southeastern United States. Any
development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it
drifts just offshore of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline
through the middle to later part of this week. Regardless of
development, heavy rains will be possible along portions of the
northern Gulf coastline from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over
the next several days. For more information about the potential for
heavy rain, please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation change through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Papin
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#17 Postby skyline385 » Sun Jul 10, 2022 1:03 pm

Gulf SSTs are also ridiculously high right now because of the death ridge. If conditions support it, it has potential to spin up very quickly.

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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#18 Postby Nimbus » Sun Jul 10, 2022 1:25 pm

This is a live link where its currently easy to spot the upper air circulation, large high to the north and upper level low centered near Cuba.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#19 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Jul 10, 2022 1:31 pm

12z Euro has TS Danielle by 120 hours just offshore the MS/AL state line. Moving SSE and intensifying by 144 hrs. Interesting run shaping up

Edit: Looks to be moving back north into Mobile Bay by 150hrs, 992mb. Over 20" of rain showing up along the coast :eek:
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#20 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Jul 10, 2022 1:36 pm

Great timing as we are currently driving to Orange Beach. Lol
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