Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

[Stormlover1970]

12z run of ICON has anything that develops, only a good deal of rain.

Looks like a lot less than previously thought but it is only one model and one run

[Steve]

12z run of ICON has anything that develops, only a good deal of rain.

Looks like a lot less than previously thought but it is only one model and one run

It also pulls a circulation up late in the run along the west coast of Florida. Sometimes ICON is good for genesis. But sometimes it's bad on solutions. It was drip-dropping a little while ago, and there's a bunch of rain out my window to the SW.

[Stormcenter]

Models never do a good job with homegrown old frontal storms so I wouldn’t put too much weight on these runs.

[rolltide]

Some convection is building near the center of the rotation just south of Destin.

[Stormcenter]

As noted earlier keep an eye on the area south of Louisiana coast,

[cycloneye]

Down to 20%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
A couple of weak low pressure systems embedded along a surface
trough are producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over
the northern Gulf of Mexico, with some of that activity now
spreading inland over the Florida Panhandle. The surface trough is
expected to meander near the northern Gulf coast through the end of
the week, but gradual development will only be possible if it
remains over water during that time. Regardless of development,
heavy rains will pose a risk of flash flooding along portions of the
northern Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the
next several days. For more information about the potential for
heavy rain and flooding, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Products from the Weather Prediction Center can be found at
wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and local National Weather Service products can
be found at weather.gov

Forecaster Berg

[Wampadawg]

Down to 20%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
A couple of weak low pressure systems embedded along a surface
trough are producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over
the northern Gulf of Mexico, with some of that activity now
spreading inland over the Florida Panhandle. The surface trough is
expected to meander near the northern Gulf coast through the end of
the week, but gradual development will only be possible if it
remains over water during that time. Regardless of development,
heavy rains will pose a risk of flash flooding along portions of the
northern Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the
next several days. For more information about the potential for
heavy rain and flooding, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Products from the Weather Prediction Center can be found at
wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and local National Weather Service products can
be found at weather.gov

Forecaster Berg

Was fun for awhile

[Nimbus]

Some convection is building near the center of the rotation just south of Destin.

We were talking about that earlier this morning, but I guess they don't think that circulation will persist?

[Frank P]

Well 20% is still a chance, but only if the low washes out over the Panhandle moving inland and a new low forms off the LA coast.. stranger things have happened before! Watching the storms off the LA coast now. my glass is 20% full of water, 80% full of Crown.. and that’s how we roll on the front Beach in Biloxi.

[Steve]

^^ Mesovortex it looks like anyway if it's not a trick with converging clouds at different layers. Lots of rain for Panama City throughout the day for sure with the moisture pumping right into the panhandle there. We got 2-3" downtown New Orleans in the last hour. So the 4-8" threat for the week is probably real.

[Nimbus]

^^ Mesovortex it looks like anyway if it's not a trick with converging clouds at different layers. Lots of rain for Panama City throughout the day for sure with the moisture pumping right into the panhandle there. We got 2-3" downtown New Orleans in the last hour. So the 4-8" threat for the week is probably real.

It is far enough east that it should be headed north inland, but it shows what the SST conditions can do for even a short lived mesovort.

[rolltide]

This afternoon it looks like the tight swirl south of Destin is becoming elongated from the Fla panhandle wsw to south of LA.

[Nimbus]

This afternoon it looks like the tight swirl south of Destin is becoming elongated from the Fla panhandle wsw to south of LA.

This is a broad surface trough that was just one mesovort that spit north inland.
Even the buoy off Houston has been dipping to near 1009 MB.
That mesovort pressure is near 1012 MB at the surface.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=CDT

[tropicwatch]

Starting to see rotation on radar south of Mobile Alabama. Maybe the Hurricane Hunters will have something more definitive to look at when they fly tomorrow.

[Stormlover1970]

Starting to see rotation on radar south of Mobile Alabama. Maybe the Hurricane Hunters will have something more definitive to look at when they fly tomorrow.

Interesting why they would fly when the NHC dropped chances to 20 percent?

[Nimbus]

Starting to see rotation on radar south of Mobile Alabama. Maybe the Hurricane Hunters will have something more definitive to look at when they fly tomorrow.

Interesting why they would fly when the NHC dropped chances to 20 percent?

The vort south of Mobile bay didn't drill down to the surface but there might be a new area further west by morning. Surface pressures are a little lower on the western end of the trough according to the buoys we can access. Maybe there is an oil platform out there with a barometer we can fly

[hurricane2025]

Good rain maker

[Wampadawg]

Good rain maker

For some lol I lost the rain lottery again today storm to the east and storms to west ,pain full, we are dry dry here sprinklers can’t keep up my wallet can’t keep up

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO=Unlikely.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough extending from the Florida Panhandle west-
southwestward along the northern Gulf coast continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of
Mexico and adjacent land areas. The surface trough is forecast to
drift northward during the next few days and significant development
is unlikely due to the system's proximity to land. Regardless of
development, heavy rains will pose a risk of flash flooding along
portions of the northern Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida
Panhandle over the next several days. For more information about
the potential for heavy rain and flooding, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service office and the Weather
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Products from the Weather Prediction Center can be found at
wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and local National Weather Service products can
be found at weather.gov

Forecaster Brown

[Wampadawg]

Texas 0-2 on Homegrown
Till the next one lol