Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#61 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jul 11, 2022 11:35 am

wxman57 wrote:Models are backing off on any offshore low development. Regardless, this would not be a wind threat, just some rain from SE LA to the western FL Peninsula Wed-Sat. Could use some of that here, but I did wake up to a thunderstorm that dropped 0.38" of rain in SW Houston.


I still haven't gotten crap. I was wedged between two cells yesterday, and got NOTHING.
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#62 Postby Steve » Mon Jul 11, 2022 11:35 am

tropicwatch wrote:Looking at Radar, it appears that the low might set up south of the Panam City, Port St. Joe area. There is also some 925mb and 850mb vorticity in that area.


I don't think it would close off that far east, but it certainly could eventually affect those areas. I think it's just flow near the sinking trough for now as the trough itself sags southward while the upper low over western Cuba spins counter-clockwise. The area where you're talking about is where the flows from both systems converge. Assuming it becomes the surface trough in the NE Gulf, you'd expect the real eddy to set up on the western side - if one ever does. Look at the flow on water vapor as it shows pretty well what I'm talking about.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#63 Postby Steve » Mon Jul 11, 2022 11:40 am

Stormcenter wrote:Thanks Steve, it should make for an interesting week
storm tracking wise with so much unknown assuming
something does develop.

Steve wrote:12z models are starting to roll in.

NAM12km - forms at the coast, brings up in to Terrebonne/Lafourche/Jefferson Parishes.

ICON - forms off the LA Coast, drops down and moves toward the NE Gulf and brings in an intensifying system (995mb it looks like) into Franklin/Wakulla Counties just east of Apalachicola.

GFS - Brings the energy inland before it can form. It's only out to 120h on TT, so it's possible there's something left behind to work with. But the curved low clearly goes in SELA and moves north/northeast.

RGEM (mesoscale also) forms a low just off the LA Coast and wants to move it westward slowly along the coast.

Not much consistency with the evolution which will be the case probably until we have a low down there.


Hey Stormcenter. Great seeing you and everyone else on the forum again. I saw where you guys had record heat yesterday in parts of Houston.

We're supposed to go to Pensacola this weekend, though that's now on standby. It probably won't matter from Houma-Panama City and points north (at least initially) are looking to get 2-5" on the often conservative QPF forecast. It's mostly coastal and offshore through 5 days (7am Saturday). Seeing how they present the changes over the next few days is often a clue as to what the NCEP is thinking.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1657556774
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#64 Postby KimmieLa » Mon Jul 11, 2022 11:53 am

SoupBone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Models are backing off on any offshore low development. Regardless, this would not be a wind threat, just some rain from SE LA to the western FL Peninsula Wed-Sat. Could use some of that here, but I did wake up to a thunderstorm that dropped 0.38" of rain in SW Houston.


I still haven't gotten crap. I was wedged between two cells yesterday, and got NOTHING.



SoupBone, I feel your pain, only got 1/4" of an inch, and lots of lightning, just N of BTR. But, the mammatus (sp) clouds afterwards sure put on a show. It was gorgeous, the colors.

From StormCast- Gulf Coast Weather this morning:

Lots of questions on this week. It's going to be a very tough forecast for meteorologists. There will be a very fine line to us dealing with a flood situation or very little rainfall. Some of these models (most of them actually) are eerily similar to the days leading up to the August 2016 flood. Will that happen again? Likely not, but just be safe and take any necessary precautions in case there's a surprise later in the week. So far most of these models are keeping the heaviest rains (near 30 inches in some models), offshore, BUT like we saw in August 2016, that can easily shift inland. This morning's 06z NAM has actually done this. While instead of a surface low developing and staying east of SELA, it actually develops it and slowly rides it west long the Louisiana coast, bringing the deepest tropical moisture right over SELA.
Definitely something we'll have to watch this week. -Scott Guidry
Last edited by KimmieLa on Mon Jul 11, 2022 12:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#65 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Jul 11, 2022 12:02 pm

Y’all can have the rain. It’s been raining in north Georgia every single night since July started. It’s a mosquito wasteland. Still looks like it will dump a few inches on me tho. I’m wondering if we see a Barry 2.0 lol.
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#66 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 11, 2022 12:23 pm

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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#67 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 11, 2022 12:49 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure currently located over the northern
Gulf of Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible if it
can remain offshore while it meanders near the northern Gulf
of Mexico coast through the end of the week. Regardless of
development, heavy rains will be possible along portions of the
northern Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the
next several days. For more information about the potential for
heavy rain, please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Products from the Weather Prediction Center can be found at
wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and local National Weather Service products can
be found at weather.gov

Forecaster Papin
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#68 Postby Wampadawg » Mon Jul 11, 2022 2:21 pm

Latest Euro say meh!
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#69 Postby Wampadawg » Mon Jul 11, 2022 2:25 pm

Wampadawg wrote:Latest Euro say meh!

Maybe later
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#70 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Jul 11, 2022 2:36 pm

Never relied too much on forecast models when it came to home grown systems.
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#71 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Mon Jul 11, 2022 3:20 pm

Wampadawg wrote:Latest Euro say meh!

Nevertheless, the NHC has increased formation chances to 30%. Guess the Euro is currently going with the 70%.
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#72 Postby Steve » Mon Jul 11, 2022 3:36 pm

tropicwatch wrote:Never relied too much on forecast models when it came to home grown systems.


Agreed. What I'd add is that with home grown systems, sometimes the mesoscale models can pick up development better than the globals can. They're often out to lunch as well. NAM suite can be iffy on a good day. The 18z run of 12km is out to 54 hours and shows the spin but then it looks like the energy gets stretched north. Maybe that's time of day and something will consolidate off the LA coast before 84 hours when the run ends.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1118&fh=54
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#73 Postby Wampadawg » Mon Jul 11, 2022 3:55 pm

Steve wrote:
tropicwatch wrote:Never relied too much on forecast models when it came to home grown systems.


Agreed. What I'd add is that with home grown systems, sometimes the mesoscale models can pick up development better than the globals can. They're often out to lunch as well. NAM suite can be iffy on a good day. The 18z run of 12km is out to 54 hours and shows the spin but then it looks like the energy gets stretched north. Maybe that's time of day and something will consolidate off the LA coast before 84 hours when the run ends.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1118&fh=54

Seems to try to develop it further west this run
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#74 Postby rolltide » Mon Jul 11, 2022 5:02 pm

It looks like there is a broad turning in the gulf south of Mobile. Something to watch
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#75 Postby Wampadawg » Mon Jul 11, 2022 5:20 pm

I never tracked a homegrown storm,now I can certainly see that is a wild card! More twists and turns than an afternoon soap!
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#76 Postby Steve » Mon Jul 11, 2022 5:45 pm

rolltide wrote:It looks like there is a broad turning in the gulf south of Mobile. Something to watch


Yeah. That’s probably about what it amounts to outside of possible heavy rain for some. There is no MJO support which isn’t necessarily a requirement for in close development, but it leads me to believe this won’t be much if anything.
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#77 Postby Nimbus » Mon Jul 11, 2022 5:56 pm

Slow system, looks like its finally starting to cut off from the front this evening.
Clouds beginning to wrap back west inland Louisiana.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#78 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 11, 2022 6:34 pm

Every model seems to have a different solution. Looks like another weak low like a few weeks ago along the TX coast. Lots of rain for someone, maybe.
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#79 Postby Wampadawg » Mon Jul 11, 2022 7:00 pm

wxman57 wrote:Every model seems to have a different solution. Looks like another weak low like a few weeks ago along the TX coast. Lots of rain for someone, maybe.

Spin the model wheel and see where it lands
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Re: Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

#80 Postby Wampadawg » Mon Jul 11, 2022 8:16 pm

Wampadawg wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Every model seems to have a different solution. Looks like another weak low like a few weeks ago along the TX coast. Lots of rain for someone, maybe.

Spin the model wheel and see where it lands

1800 Euro shows some pity rain Houston area lol
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