Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

[Steve]

Texas 0-2 on Homegrown
Till the next one lol

Don’t be surprised if SE Texas doesn’t get some enhanced storms by the weekend. There is some activity W and SW of Houston Now and also are some strong storms rotating through extreme SW LA. Overall reach appears to be at least a bit farther west In time. The 6/7pm storms haven’t really held together after dark onshore the last two nights. But don’t give up all hope as you could still get an inch or two under a decent storm.

[jaguars_22]

It looks like in the convection under Louisiana there is a spin… any chance this could work down to surface???

[Wampadawg]

Texas 0-2 on Homegrown
Till the next one lol

Don’t be surprised if SE Texas doesn’t get some enhanced storms by the weekend. There is some activity W and SW of Houston Now and also are some strong storms rotating through extreme SW LA. Overall reach appears to be at least a bit farther west In time. The 6/7pm storms haven’t really held together after dark onshore the last two nights. But don’t give up all hope as you could still get an inch or two under a decent storm.

We will keep the faith liquid gold will fall from the sky some day, perhaps I should be careful what I wish for.

[Stormcenter]

There is definitely a spin down there south of central
LA. Coastline.

It looks like in the convection under Louisiana there is a spin… any chance this could work down to surface???

[Category5Kaiju]

It's one thing if the center just goes over land, never to re-emerge over the Gulf again.

It's another thing for a center jump to happen, causing this thing to get more time over the GoM bathwaters.

Idk, these kinds of pop-up, non-tropical origin systems sometimes don't follow what you would expect them to do. I'm still keeping an eye on this system, but despite it being unlikely that it will become anything major, rain will obviously be an issue.

[HeeBGBz]

Hi ya'll. I have been camped out around the Davis Bayou Campground. Been through some lightning storms last week. Luckily no wind. Quite a bit of rain. So if something is going to spawn a TD nearly overhead. I'll need to scoot.

[tiger_deF]

Convection has all but died down over the Gulf and Gulf coast, but there is fairly potent spin in the lower region of the disturbance over open water. Looking at Meso images, the collapse of storm activity has revealed a circulation well South of Vermillion Bay. IMO if there is any chance of this spinning up in the near term that is the most likely area of development. I think it definitely bears watching, if deeper convection does redevelop in that area I think we could be in for a suprise.

[Steve]

It's one thing if the center just goes over land, never to re-emerge over the Gulf again.

It's another thing for a center jump to happen, causing this thing to get more time over the GoM bathwaters.

Idk, these kinds of pop-up, non-tropical origin systems sometimes don't follow what you would expect them to do. I'm still keeping an eye on this system, but despite it being unlikely that it will become anything major, rain will obviously be an issue.

Latest 5 day QPF has > a foot down in lower Plaquenines and maybe 3-4” along the LA/MS/AL and Fl coastal areas. Looks like some storms are firing up south of MS tonight. Those will likely rotate across here tomorrow. It goes without saying but some people will get more and less than the map shows. I think lots more in some places. Otherwise it’s a warmup for a few weeks from now.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1657688454

[Dean4Storms]

Models all abandoned development but I am trying to drill down to the reason. There’s a trough, low shear and bath water, why didn’t this develop, continental dry air aloft?

[Nimbus]

Models all abandoned development but I am trying to drill down to the reason. There’s a trough, low shear and bath water, why didn’t this develop, continental dry air aloft?

Probably the continental dry air aloft, pros only giving this a 10% chance of developing but where there is shear over a surface trough you get uplift and rain. Air appears too stable off the Texas coast unless a circulation develops at the surface.

[Wampadawg]

Well let’s see if the little fella has any last gasping tricks up his sleeve this morning.

[Wampadawg]

Well let’s see if the little fella has any last gasping tricks up his sleeve this morning.

NHC says goodbye

[Steve]

Models all abandoned development but I am trying to drill down to the reason. There’s a trough, low shear and bath water, why didn’t this develop, continental dry air aloft?

July and MJO

[wxman57]

Models all abandoned development but I am trying to drill down to the reason. There’s a trough, low shear and bath water, why didn’t this develop, continental dry air aloft?

The fact that it was upstream of an upper-level low that was situated north of western Cuba didn't help. At least there is enough instability along the coast for daily thunderstorms. Had a brief heavy storm again yesterday. Got 0.44" in about 5 minutes. Minor street flooding. Yard is happy. Looks like a quiet next couple of weeks. Perhaps we'll go to the second week of August before the next development.

[SoupBone]

Models all abandoned development but I am trying to drill down to the reason. There’s a trough, low shear and bath water, why didn’t this develop, continental dry air aloft?

The fact that it was upstream of an upper-level low that was situated north of western Cuba didn't help. At least there is enough instability along the coast for daily thunderstorms. Had a brief heavy storm again yesterday. Got 0.44" in about 5 minutes. Minor street flooding. Yard is happy. Looks like a quiet next couple of weeks. Perhaps we'll go to the second week of August before the next development.

From your mouth to God's ears. I just want a little rain here and there. Rained about 3 minutes at my house yesterday.

[cycloneye]

For anyone that was a asking if recon was going, but all missions were canceled.

ALL MISSIONS TASKED IN TCPOD 22-047 WERE CANCELED BY NHC
AT 13/1315Z.

[Category5Kaiju]

We can wait for Danielle I suppose.

[Wampadawg]

We can wait for Danielle I suppose.

Like today’s airports your flight has been cancelled and you are now being re-routed destination unknown

[wxman57]

Models all abandoned development but I am trying to drill down to the reason. There’s a trough, low shear and bath water, why didn’t this develop, continental dry air aloft?

The fact that it was upstream of an upper-level low that was situated north of western Cuba didn't help. At least there is enough instability along the coast for daily thunderstorms. Had a brief heavy storm again yesterday. Got 0.44" in about 5 minutes. Minor street flooding. Yard is happy. Looks like a quiet next couple of weeks. Perhaps we'll go to the second week of August before the next development.

From your mouth to God's ears. I just want a little rain here and there. Rained about 3 minutes at my house yesterday.

I don't know where you live. Had thunderstorms here in SW Houston Monday and Tuesday. Only glancing blows, but about 0.8" of rain.

[SoupBone]

The fact that it was upstream of an upper-level low that was situated north of western Cuba didn't help. At least there is enough instability along the coast for daily thunderstorms. Had a brief heavy storm again yesterday. Got 0.44" in about 5 minutes. Minor street flooding. Yard is happy. Looks like a quiet next couple of weeks. Perhaps we'll go to the second week of August before the next development.

From your mouth to God's ears. I just want a little rain here and there. Rained about 3 minutes at my house yesterday.

I don't know where you live. Had thunderstorms here in SW Houston Monday and Tuesday. Only glancing blows, but about 0.8" of rain.

NW Houston, Cypress area. I was wedged between two cells, two days in a row with no rain. Finally got 3 minutes of rain yesterday.