Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

[SoupBone]

Every model seems to have a different solution. Looks like another weak low like a few weeks ago along the TX coast. Lots of rain for someone, maybe.

Spin the model wheel and see where it lands

1800 Euro shows some pity rain Houston area lol

I just watched a giant cell headed toward me, hit I45 and go poof. I'm getting pissed at these teases, the Euro included.

[Wampadawg]

Spin the model wheel and see where it lands

1800 Euro shows some pity rain Houston area lol

I just watched a giant cell headed toward me, hit I45 and go poof. I'm getting pissed at these teases, the Euro included.

Lol had the same thing about an hour ago in Pearland

[cycloneye]

Important discussion by Bob Henson about the rains expected for the gulf coast. I say important because of the possible flooding that may occur.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022 ... -flooding/

[Stormgodess]

Important discussion by Bob Henson about the rains expected for the gulf coast. I say important because of the possible flooding that may occur.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022 ... -flooding/

Just reading this part made tears well up in my eyes. Please don't let this be like August 2016

"Even if a tropical cyclone doesn’t form, this type of setup can give Gulf Coast residents understandable pause. As noted by tropical expert Michael Lowry, the only other time SSTs were this warm in the northern Gulf in early July was in 2016. Later that summer, an infamous rainmaking cyclone moved slowly westward from Florida to Louisiana, as evident in the tweeted satellite loop below (please note the date of Aug. 14, 2016!)."

[Landy]

0z ICON has an interesting take on this system in the mid-range, to say the least. Is this run a fluke? I've never seen ICON so bullish before.

[Steve]

It seems to be an outlier. What I got from the 00z models was that there would be plenty of offshore energy but at least a piece of it looks to take off to the north and northeast while general instability remains along the coast. Icon handles it differently from GFS, CMC and Nan’s. I like it sometimes for sniffing out development ahead of some of the major models, but I’m not sold on early solutions or tracks.

[Stormcenter]

Latest ICON looks very concerning.

[Dean4Storms]

There’s some vorticity in the convection south of the FL Panhandle this morning. If that convection holds through the day it would have a shot of development but don’t know if it will have enough time over water as seems to be drifting northward.

[Nimbus]

There’s some vorticity in the convection south of the FL Panhandle this morning. If that convection holds through the day it would have a shot of development but don’t know if it will have enough time over water as seems to be drifting northward.

The front cut off further east than I expected and in a few days there may be a high pressure dome over the area as that elongated upper level low lifts out over Florida. Not seeing as much to track this west now as the upper level steering is rather zonal 10 degrees further north.

[wxman57]

The only model suggesting any significant development is the ICON. Development of any low is looking less likely. Nothing to indicate a concentrated area of heavy rain anywhere (like 2016 in Baton Rouge).

[Ivanhater]

Definitely some spin over the Gulf this morning

Sent from my LM-G900TM using Tapatalk

[Wampadawg]

::

The only model suggestingany significant development is the ICON. Development of any low is looking less likely. Nothing to indicate a concentrated area of heavy rain anywhere (like 2016 in Baton Rouge).

“So your telling me there is a chance” of sprinkles for our area

[Blown Away]

00z Icon...

06z was a little weaker through 120 hrs.

[Stormcenter]

A couple of things to note, this was never supposed to develop until Wed. or Thurs. in addition, the NHC has
not lowered their development chances.

[Wampadawg]

A couple of things to note, this was never supposed to develop until Wed. or Thurs. in addition, the NHC has
not lowered their development chances.

Both very good points.do you think today will provide clarity on what this event may or not be?

[Steve]

A couple of things to note, this was never supposed to develop until Wed. or Thurs. in addition, the NHC has
not lowered their development chances.

Both very good points.do you think today will provide clarity on what this event may or not be?

It's just something to watch. I think wxman provided the clarity in that it doesn't look like much of a tropical threat, it's a rain threat. Any focusing point for the circulation would have to be pretty far south in the Gulf. ICON is the only model that shows it dropping that far down, and that's remnant energy next week. NHC has it 10/30. I think it's more like 5/10 at least for now.

[skyline385]

00z Icon...

06z was a little weaker through 120 hrs.

That run is ridiculous lol, however we do have 30-31C waters near the coast and models are showing low shear near it with a moist environment so if the center gets a good time over the waters it might be more than just a TS.

[somethingfunny]

https://i.imgur.com/k23bDNL.gif
00z Icon...

06z was a little weaker through 120 hrs.

This reminds me of Barry a few years ago which also had some insane runs bombing out while stalled offshore... It didn't really pan out that way, though a 65kt wind was recorded at some point.

[Stormcenter]

Lots of convection building south of the SE La.
coastline.

[cycloneye]

12z run of ICON has anything that develops, only a good deal of rain.