When will the first major hurricane form in the Atlantic?

[captainbarbossa19]

Since it is almost August, I thought I would find out what other members think about when to expect the first major. If someone could create a poll, I would appreciate it. Here are the options:

1. July 21-31
2. August 1-10
3. August 11-20
4. August 21-31
5. September 1-10
6. September 11 and beyond
7. There will be no major this year

[FireRat]

August 21-31 is my best guess

[cycloneye]

Made this question as a poll that will close for voting on July 31 at 2:42 PM EDT.

[Category5Kaiju]

Gonna go reckless mode and say August 11-20, bucking the trend from the past years and completely startling many wx trackers, including Dr. Gray, who is forced to ring the bell before August 20

[toad strangler]

Gonna go reckless mode and say August 11-20, bucking the trend from the past years and completely startling many wx trackers, including Dr. Gray, who is forced to ring the bell before August 20

Gray passed away 6 years ago but I'm pretty sure CSU still carries on the tradition? Honestly I don't know.

[skyline385]

Gonna go reckless mode and say August 11-20, bucking the trend from the past years and completely startling many wx trackers, including Dr. Gray, who is forced to ring the bell before August 20

Gray passed away 6 years ago but I'm pretty sure CSU still carries on the tradition? Honestly I don't know.

They do indeed.

[floridasun]

i thin it will be August 11-20 because of shear and Saharan Dust need get less not doing that now

[cycloneye]

August 21-31.

[SFLcane]

August 21-31.

Things can change real fast once you near 8/20!

[Stormybajan]

Going for the usual August 21-31 BUT it should be early in that range like the 21st or the 22nd. Its completely dead and dry right now in the Atlantic but in exactly a month's time (August 15th-20 usually signals the ringing of the Atlantic peak szn bell) the basin should be the polar opposite of what it is today....if the models and forecasters are going to be correct about this being a very active/hyperactive season its going to have to get cooking in August!

[Old-TimeCane]

I went with August 21-31. Who are the 2 (so far) who said there won't be a major this year?

[skyline385]

Gonna go reckless mode and say August 11-20, bucking the trend from the past years and completely startling many wx trackers, including Dr. Gray, who is forced to ring the bell before August 20

Going to join you on August 11-20

[Chris90]

I went with August 11-20th. I think the first major will kick off a touch earlier than usual this year. I know there's been some back and forth about the indicators, but honestly, everything over the past few months has seemingly continued to trend towards a favorable setup for the Atlantic. The SST pattern looks fairly conducive for deep tropical activity, and we've seen some impressive wave trains already. IMO, seasons with favorable setups for deep tropical activity seem to be more heavily weighted towards the August-September portion of ASO and less backloaded like other seasons, which is why I'm throwing my hat in the Aug 11-20th ring.

[aspen]

Going with August 21-31, specifically the last week of August.

[Category5Kaiju]

Imagine if the first hurricane of this season is actually also our first major hurricane

I mean, something like this has happened in past years (interestingly, quite a few of them being List 2 years as well, such as 1980, 1992, 2004, and nearly 2010). 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2007, 2008, and 2011 apply too

[AtlanticWind]

Went Aug.11th to 20th , I think it could even be a tad earlier but went with safer bet.

[ncforecaster89]

Average Date of first #hurricane (1971-2021):

1971-1980: 7/29
1981-1990: 8/04
1991-2000: 8/03
2001-2010: 8/04
2011-2021: 7/31

Avg date: 8/2

Average date of first “major” hurricane:

1971-1980: 8/28
1981-1990: 9/06
1991-2000: 8/17
2001-2010: 8/18
2011-2021: 8/31

Avg date: 8/26