When will Danielle form?

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When will Danielle form?

Poll ended at Sun Jul 31, 2022 6:34 pm

July 25-31
3
9%
August 1-10
19
54%
August 11-20
9
26%
August 21-31
3
9%
September and beyond
1
3%
 
Total votes: 35

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cycloneye
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When will Danielle form?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 20, 2022 6:34 pm

Simple question about when the fourth named storm of the 2022 North Atlantic season will form. Poll will close for voting on July 31 at 7:34 PM EDT.
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Re: When will Danielle form?

#2 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Jul 20, 2022 6:37 pm

Went with August 1-10. I think the upcoming CCKW is bound to produce at least something, given how it seems to be really energizing the EPAC (so it "should" in theory do something similar in the Atlantic; not to mention the WPAC is very quiet)
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Re: When will Danielle form?

#3 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Jul 20, 2022 11:18 pm

August 1-10 in the MDR or Caribbean most likely.
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Re: When will Danielle form?

#4 Postby Old-TimeCane » Wed Jul 20, 2022 11:26 pm

August 1-10
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Re: When will Danielle form?

#5 Postby Nimbus » Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:52 am

We haven't had a quiet August in a few years so I played August 11-20.
Hoping the SAL keeps activity down for a couple weeks.
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Re: When will Danielle form?

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 31, 2022 12:35 pm

My last call to vote for those who have not done so. The voting ends at 7:34 PM EDT.
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Re: When will Danielle form?

#7 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sun Jul 31, 2022 1:00 pm

Went with Aug 11-20, which roughly lines up with the period in which the ASW gets reinvigorated on the EPS. So really not much different from what we've experienced in recent years.
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Re: When will Danielle form?

#8 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jul 31, 2022 1:10 pm

Aug. 1-10 is unlikely. 11-20 is much more realistic.
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Re: When will Danielle form?

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 31, 2022 6:41 pm

This poll has closed for voting.
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Re: When will Danielle form?

#10 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 02, 2022 1:13 pm

I'm thinking the first week of September for Danielle.............It's less than 4 weeks away, so it's possible Danielle can be delayed until them........
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Re: When will Danielle form?

#11 Postby mcheer23 » Tue Aug 02, 2022 1:16 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:I'm thinking the first week of September for Danielle.............It's less than 4 weeks away, so it's possible Danielle can be delayed until them........

We will not go the whole month of August without a named storm.
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Re: When will Danielle form?

#12 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Aug 02, 2022 1:33 pm

mcheer23 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I'm thinking the first week of September for Danielle.............It's less than 4 weeks away, so it's possible Danielle can be delayed until them........

We will not go the whole month of August without a named storm.


:lol:
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Re: When will Danielle form?

#13 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 02, 2022 1:51 pm

I don't see much potential for development over the next 8 days. Most likely after August 15th.
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Re: When will Danielle form?

#14 Postby LarryWx » Tue Aug 02, 2022 3:25 pm

mcheer23 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I'm thinking the first week of September for Danielle.............It's less than 4 weeks away, so it's possible Danielle can be delayed until them........

We will not go the whole month of August without a named storm.


Agreed 110%:

- Since 1995, there has been only one season with no August NS: the super strong El Nino of 1997.
- Since 1995, 24 of 27 (89%) have had not just 2 but 3+ NS in August! Only 1997 (0), 2013 (2), and 2014 (weak El Nino)(2) had fewer than 3 in August.
- 1996, 1998, and 1999 all had 4 NS in August but the first one for all three seasons wasn't til either August 18th or 19th.
- The ENSO analog 2000 (3rd year La Nina) had 4 NS in August.
- Even the pre-1995 ENSO analog of 1985 had 3 NS in August. Actually, all ENSO analogs even going back to the likely underreported years of the 1800s had at least 1 NS in August.

Conclusion: Based on history since 1995, you'd have to be bold to go with fewer than 3 NS this August even with the quiet first week or so on the models. I think 3-4 is the most likely with only a slight lean toward 3 NS in August.
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Re: When will Danielle form?

#15 Postby facemane » Tue Aug 02, 2022 4:43 pm

wxman57 wrote:I don't see much potential for development over the next 8 days. Most likely after August 15th.




This is what our local Met is saying.
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Re: When will Danielle form?

#16 Postby 115MphAgatha » Wed Aug 31, 2022 10:31 am

And, barring a surprise, it looks like the 1 person who voted "September and beyond" wins!
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Re: When will Danielle form?

#17 Postby 115MphAgatha » Thu Sep 01, 2022 10:07 am

mcheer23 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I'm thinking the first week of September for Danielle.............It's less than 4 weeks away, so it's possible Danielle can be delayed until them........

We will not go the whole month of August without a named storm.

Aged like milk!

Anyways, congrats ConvergenceZone!
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Re: When will Danielle form?

#18 Postby zzh » Thu Sep 01, 2022 11:44 am

mcheer23 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I'm thinking the first week of September for Danielle.............It's less than 4 weeks away, so it's possible Danielle can be delayed until them........

We will not go the whole month of August without a named storm.

:lol:
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Re: When will Danielle form?

#19 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Sep 01, 2022 5:25 pm

zzh wrote:
mcheer23 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I'm thinking the first week of September for Danielle.............It's less than 4 weeks away, so it's possible Danielle can be delayed until them........

We will not go the whole month of August without a named storm.

:lol:


First La Nina with no August TC ever observed. Lightning in a bottle and all that :lol:
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