What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

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What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

Poll ended at Sun Jul 31, 2022 11:04 am

Leave numbers the same
21
40%
Reduce the numbers
31
60%
Increase the numbers
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 52

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skyline385
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What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#21 Postby skyline385 » Fri Jul 29, 2022 10:30 am

Teban54 wrote:
NDG wrote:My thinking is that they will at least leave the same if not reduce numbers, I can see some that forecasted ACE closer to 180 reducing them to the low to mid 100s.

That's what I'm thinking as well. Pretty much nobody is expecting a 200 ACE season anymore (though you never know), but I haven't seen concrete evidence that would point to a 120-130 ACE season like some suggest. That would be even less than 2018/19/21, when this year's overall conditions still seem more favorable than the batch.

I said this a few days ago and still think that CSU will go for something between 140-160. The CSU forecast talks in detail about the factors contributing to their numbers and many of them have trended back since June.
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Re: What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#22 Postby toad strangler » Fri Jul 29, 2022 11:02 am

wxman57 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:They will reaffirm


Weenies are weenieing right now lol


I'm not sure what this means. Is updating a weather forecast after the initial forecast "weenieing"? If, on Monday, we forecast rain on the following Sunday, but remove rain from the forecast by Wednesday, is that "weenieing"? If a forecast is not going as expected, are meteorologists not allowed to ever change it? Clearly, the season is way behind the pace needed to reach 20 named storms or more, given that the first couple weeks of August may remain quiet. That said, I'm dropping my numbers by 3 named storms, 1 hurricane, and 1 major hurricane.


It's just term MANY of us use and wasn't directed at pro mets. Dropping your numbers might be the prudent thing to do. Only those infatuated with ACE totals are going to fret about that anyway. I worry about the three or four that could wreck the tranquility of many.
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Re: What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#23 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2022 8:36 am

This poll has closed for voting but if anyone wants to make comments, go ahead.
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Re: What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#24 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 03, 2022 8:43 am

I see zero reason to raise the predicted numbers. With only 3 named storms so far, and at least half of August likely quiet, there's only one way to go...
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Re: What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#25 Postby underthwx » Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:21 am

wxman57 wrote:I haven't talked to Klotzbach about the outlook lately. He and Kris are vacationing in the mountains somewhere. Given that the Atlantic may well remain quiet through the second week of August, it may be hard to reach a total of 20-22 named storms. It would take a quite active October and November. Wouldn't rule that out, though. I'm considering lowering our numbers by 1-3, not because of the inactive July (after the first week), but due to the slow start in August. August and September will have to be very active to reach 20+ named storms. Total of 18 or 19 may be more likely. Perhaps the season will be a dud like 2013? Everything pointed to a very active season but all forecasts were wrong. That would be great.


As always, I pay attention to you Xman, maybe they lower the numbers a bit, who knows? ...August and September will either be feast or famine with Cyclone development, it remains to be seen. The past few weeks being quiet, to me are not indicative of what the remainder of the season will ultimately deliver in development, as you eluded to Xman....I wonder if the 2022 season does end with far fewer systems developing, what the reasons are, considering the predictions for a busy season?
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