What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

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What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

Poll ended at Sun Jul 31, 2022 11:04 am

Leave numbers the same
21
40%
Reduce the numbers
31
60%
Increase the numbers
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 52

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cycloneye
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What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:04 am

Many experts and agencies will update their forecasts for the 2022 North Atlantic hurricane season in the first days of August. The question is, what the members think about what will they do? Only three options and the voting ends on July 31 at 12:04 PM EDT. If anyone wants to comment about this question, go ahead.
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Re: What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#2 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:32 am

I think they will reduce total NS count possibility from a ridiculously high 20 or 21 and more towards the 17-18 range (maybe, just maybe 19 as an upper bound) since shorties in the subtropics don't seem to really be happening unlike the last 2 years, but I still think they will keep hurricane count and MH count the same. Nothing suggests to me that there's any reason to believe that ASO will not be busy
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Re: What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#3 Postby zzh » Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:37 am

Expecting big decrease in CSU's August forecast. Maybe down to 140 ace.
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Re: What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#4 Postby CFLHurricane » Mon Jul 25, 2022 12:42 pm

This is a wonderful poll to gauge the annual July doldrums. :P
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Re: What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#5 Postby skyline385 » Mon Jul 25, 2022 1:31 pm

CSU will probably lower the number of NS and ACE back to 160 similar to the original June forecast. Most of the stuff which caused CSU to bump it from 160 to 180 (warming MDR and overly bullish seasonal models) have backed off.

NOAA forecast already has a wide enough range so they wont probably be updating anytime soon.
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Re: What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 25, 2022 1:46 pm

skyline385 wrote:CSU will probably lower the number of NS and ACE back to 160 similar to the original June forecast. Most of the stuff which caused CSU to bump it from 160 to 180 (warming MDR and overly bullish seasonal models) have backed off.

NOAA forecast already has a wide enough range so they wont probably be updating anytime soon.


NOAA had 14-21 named storms in the May forecast and my opinion is that they may trim them by one or two. 13/20 or 12/19.
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Re: What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#7 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Jul 25, 2022 1:57 pm

They might lower the NS count by 1 or 2 but overall I'm not expecting any major changes honestly. July doesn't really have any impact on peak season...
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Re: What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#8 Postby zzh » Mon Jul 25, 2022 2:09 pm

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All of CSU's July predictors are indicating a suppressed Atlantic, way far off from model predictions in early July. I see zero reason CSU would keep numbers the same.
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Re: What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#9 Postby skyline385 » Mon Jul 25, 2022 2:48 pm

We also have the August run of the SEAS5 on the 1st and CSU have acknowledged it in their forecasts. However this one will be very close to their forecast release so not sure how much weight will be given to it.
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Re: What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#10 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Mon Jul 25, 2022 2:48 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:They might lower the NS count by 1 or 2 but overall I'm not expecting any major changes honestly. July doesn't really have any impact on peak season...


I completely agree. I am trying to figure out why July conditions of dry air, SAL, and SSTs are supposed to majorly negate the season. July is often the slowest month of the year and we often do not see an increase in activity until mid to late August. Also, SSTs are colder in the subtropics, while MDR and western basin SSTs are running average to above-average. Wind shear has also been rather low given the time of year which we often do not see in average to below-average seasons. Looking at all the factors together, I think the potential for this season is still high, but we will see what happens in reality. I just find it interesting how if July is slow, there seems to be a tendency from many to decrease expectations of peak season. July and August can be as different activity-wise as weather is different between summer and winter.
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Re: What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#11 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Jul 25, 2022 3:15 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
ElectricStorm wrote:They might lower the NS count by 1 or 2 but overall I'm not expecting any major changes honestly. July doesn't really have any impact on peak season...


I completely agree. I am trying to figure out why July conditions of dry air, SAL, and SSTs are supposed to majorly negate the season. July is often the slowest month of the year and we often do not see an increase in activity until mid to late August. Also, SSTs are colder in the subtropics, while MDR and western basin SSTs are running average to above-average. Wind shear has also been rather low given the time of year which we often do not see in average to below-average seasons. Looking at all the factors together, I think the potential for this season is still high, but we will see what happens in reality. I just find it interesting how if July is slow, there seems to be a tendency from many to decrease expectations of peak season. July and August can be as different activity-wise as weather is different between summer and winter.

Yeah I think a lot of people kind of got used to the very active Julys of 2020 and 2021 and expected it to happen again but it hasn't, which is completely normal.

Now if we get to September and there's still not much going on, then we can start talking about a less active season but for now I don't really see any reason to believe that will be the case.
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Re: What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#12 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jul 25, 2022 3:25 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
ElectricStorm wrote:They might lower the NS count by 1 or 2 but overall I'm not expecting any major changes honestly. July doesn't really have any impact on peak season...


I completely agree. I am trying to figure out why July conditions of dry air, SAL, and SSTs are supposed to majorly negate the season. July is often the slowest month of the year and we often do not see an increase in activity until mid to late August. Also, SSTs are colder in the subtropics, while MDR and western basin SSTs are running average to above-average. Wind shear has also been rather low given the time of year which we often do not see in average to below-average seasons. Looking at all the factors together, I think the potential for this season is still high, but we will see what happens in reality. I just find it interesting how if July is slow, there seems to be a tendency from many to decrease expectations of peak season. July and August can be as different activity-wise as weather is different between summer and winter.

Yeah I think a lot of people kind of got used to the very active Julys of 2020 and 2021 and expected it to happen again but it hasn't, which is completely normal.

Now if we get to September and there's still not much going on, then we can start talking about a less active season but for now I don't really see any reason to believe that will be the case.


I think that there were a few comments that speculated that this Atlantic season would bust due to how unexpectedly active the EPAC has been (seems like such comments were reliant on the notion that the EPAC would continue to remain busy and steal Atlantic rising air potential). However, there are definitely signs that the EPAC is ever so slightly losing steam (and the WPAC has really not been a factor at all recently due to how shut down it has been), so it'd make intuitive sense that the Atlantic will eventually wake up and deliver.
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Re: What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#13 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Jul 25, 2022 5:15 pm

They will reaffirm
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Re: What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#14 Postby toad strangler » Mon Jul 25, 2022 8:19 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:They will reaffirm


Weenies are weenieing right now lol
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Re: What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#15 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 27, 2022 7:31 am

I haven't talked to Klotzbach about the outlook lately. He and Kris are vacationing in the mountains somewhere. Given that the Atlantic may well remain quiet through the second week of August, it may be hard to reach a total of 20-22 named storms. It would take a quite active October and November. Wouldn't rule that out, though. I'm considering lowering our numbers by 1-3, not because of the inactive July (after the first week), but due to the slow start in August. August and September will have to be very active to reach 20+ named storms. Total of 18 or 19 may be more likely. Perhaps the season will be a dud like 2013? Everything pointed to a very active season but all forecasts were wrong. That would be great.
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Re: What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#16 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 29, 2022 9:29 am

toad strangler wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:They will reaffirm


Weenies are weenieing right now lol


I'm not sure what this means. Is updating a weather forecast after the initial forecast "weenieing"? If, on Monday, we forecast rain on the following Sunday, but remove rain from the forecast by Wednesday, is that "weenieing"? If a forecast is not going as expected, are meteorologists not allowed to ever change it? Clearly, the season is way behind the pace needed to reach 20 named storms or more, given that the first couple weeks of August may remain quiet. That said, I'm dropping my numbers by 3 named storms, 1 hurricane, and 1 major hurricane.
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Re: What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#17 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jul 29, 2022 9:54 am

wxman57 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:They will reaffirm


Weenies are weenieing right now lol


I'm not sure what this means. Is updating a weather forecast after the initial forecast "weenieing"? If, on Monday, we forecast rain on the following Sunday, but remove rain from the forecast by Wednesday, is that "weenieing"? If a forecast is not going as expected, are meteorologists not allowed to ever change it? Clearly, the season is way behind the pace needed to reach 20 named storms or more, given that the first couple weeks of August may remain quiet. That said, I'm dropping my numbers by 3 named storms, 1 hurricane, and 1 major hurricane.


Still quite the season. Now even more imporant do you still feel good about threats to the NE caribbean and the Southeast?
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Re: What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#18 Postby kevin » Fri Jul 29, 2022 10:02 am

I expect a slight reduction in NS due to the lower number of early season shorties and perhaps a very minor change to the hurricane and major hurricane count (so f.e. reduction of 1 in those latter two categories like wxman also mentioned). However, unless the underlying forecasted patterns for ASO have changed significantly since the last forecasts I don't think ACE forecasts will be changed by much. Besides less than a handful of exceptions (AKA pretty much only 2005), the overwhelming majority of ACE is generated during ASO so I don't think the quietness so far should impact that. The only argument for a significant ACE reduction I could think of is if there would be clear signs that the majority of August will also be quiet (no idea if those signs are actually there, haven't looked into it that much recently).
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Re: What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#19 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 29, 2022 10:17 am

My thinking is that they will at least leave the same if not reduce numbers, I can see some that forecasted ACE closer to 180 reducing them to the low to mid 100s.
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Re: What will the Experts / Private and Public agencies do in their early August forecasts?

#20 Postby Teban54 » Fri Jul 29, 2022 10:20 am

NDG wrote:My thinking is that they will at least leave the same if not reduce numbers, I can see some that forecasted ACE closer to 180 reducing them to the low to mid 100s.

That's what I'm thinking as well. Pretty much nobody is expecting a 200 ACE season anymore (though you never know), but I haven't seen concrete evidence that would point to a 120-130 ACE season like some suggest. That would be even less than 2018/19/21, when this year's overall conditions still seem more favorable than the batch.
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