Southeast Florida Hurricane Season

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toad strangler
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Re: Southeast Florida Hurricane Season

#21 Postby toad strangler » Fri Aug 05, 2022 7:30 pm

Andrew splashed down into the Atlantic off of Africa on 8/14/1992. That's just 9 days from now. The time for the FL peninsula to really pay attention is pretty much here.
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Re: Southeast Florida Hurricane Season

#22 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 05, 2022 7:44 pm

toad strangler wrote:Andrew splashed down into the Atlantic off of Africa on 8/14/1992. That's just 9 days from now. The time for the FL peninsula to really pay attention is pretty much here.


Yep, IMO this TW will struggle w/ dry air in the mid levels and out running the convection as it flys across the Atlantic. Typical early August climo. Some model ensembles seem to find better conditions after 65W if the TW avoids Hispaniola.
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Re: RE: Re: Southeast Florida Hurricane Season

#23 Postby skyline385 » Sat Aug 06, 2022 7:08 pm

toad strangler wrote:Andrew splashed down into the Atlantic off of Africa on 8/14/1992. That's just 9 days from now. The time for the FL peninsula to really pay attention is pretty much here.

Andrew was an anomaly that happened during what was a below average season, which really gave meaning to the messaging "it only takes one storm...". For SFL though, historically August has the least hurricane strikes out of ASO.

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Re: RE: Re: Southeast Florida Hurricane Season

#24 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 06, 2022 7:15 pm

skyline385 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:Andrew splashed down into the Atlantic off of Africa on 8/14/1992. That's just 9 days from now. The time for the FL peninsula to really pay attention is pretty much here.
Andrew was an anomaly that happened during what was a below average season, which really gave meaning to the messaging "it only takes one storm...". For SFL though, historically August has the least hurricane strikes out of ASO.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220807/c0b467c317e6d57dfe457ce4c38103ac.jpg

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If you count the first two weeks of August, yes. But nobody in tune with FL tropical history does that. That's a pretty high number considering most of them were 2nd half strikes. Charley was the most recent and ONLY August major that snuck through before 8/15. Charley came in on 8/13. The other 5 August MAJOR canes since 1850 have all been post 8/15. Of the 5 majors post 8/15 only one was not an east coast strike. The other 4 were strikes were Jupiter (1871), Lake Worth (1949), Homestead (Andrew 1992), Miami (1888). Furthermore, just 10 majors IN TOTAL NO MATTER THE DATE have hit the FL East Coast since 1850. None north of Martin County. That average is one every 17 years and rising since it's been 30 years now since Andrew.

I'd have to dive down into the 1's and 2's to see those breakdowns.
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Re: RE: Re: Southeast Florida Hurricane Season

#25 Postby Patrick99 » Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:15 pm

toad strangler wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:Andrew splashed down into the Atlantic off of Africa on 8/14/1992. That's just 9 days from now. The time for the FL peninsula to really pay attention is pretty much here.
Andrew was an anomaly that happened during what was a below average season, which really gave meaning to the messaging "it only takes one storm...". For SFL though, historically August has the least hurricane strikes out of ASO.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220807/c0b467c317e6d57dfe457ce4c38103ac.jpg

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If you count the first two weeks of August, yes. But nobody in tune with FL tropical history does that. That's a pretty high number considering most of them were 2nd half strikes. Charley was the most recent and ONLY August major that snuck through before 8/15. Charley came in on 8/13. The other 5 August MAJOR canes since 1850 have all been post 8/15. Of the 5 majors post 8/15 only one was not an east coast strike. The other 4 were strikes were Jupiter (1871), Lake Worth (1949), Homestead (Andrew 1992), Miami (1888). Furthermore, just 10 majors IN TOTAL NO MATTER THE DATE have hit the FL East Coast since 1850. None north of Martin County. That average is one every 17 years and rising since it's been 30 years now since Andrew.

I'd have to dive down into the 1's and 2's to see those breakdowns.


Have been in a drought for sure since the coast was absolutely peppered with majors in the 20s and 40s. Maybe that was the real anomaly rather than the norm. Everything lately seems to bifurcate into Caribbean/Gulf or out to sea. Irma was a near doomsday scenario for all of SE FL but that's been about it since Andrew and Betsy 27 years before that.
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Re: RE: Re: Southeast Florida Hurricane Season

#26 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Aug 07, 2022 6:20 am

Patrick99 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Andrew was an anomaly that happened during what was a below average season, which really gave meaning to the messaging "it only takes one storm...". For SFL though, historically August has the least hurricane strikes out of ASO.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220807/c0b467c317e6d57dfe457ce4c38103ac.jpg

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If you count the first two weeks of August, yes. But nobody in tune with FL tropical history does that. That's a pretty high number considering most of them were 2nd half strikes. Charley was the most recent and ONLY August major that snuck through before 8/15. Charley came in on 8/13. The other 5 August MAJOR canes since 1850 have all been post 8/15. Of the 5 majors post 8/15 only one was not an east coast strike. The other 4 were strikes were Jupiter (1871), Lake Worth (1949), Homestead (Andrew 1992), Miami (1888). Furthermore, just 10 majors IN TOTAL NO MATTER THE DATE have hit the FL East Coast since 1850. None north of Martin County. That average is one every 17 years and rising since it's been 30 years now since Andrew.

I'd have to dive down into the 1's and 2's to see those breakdowns.


Have been in a drought for sure since the coast was absolutely peppered with majors in the 20s and 40s. Maybe that was the real anomaly rather than the norm. Everything lately seems to bifurcate into Caribbean/Gulf or out to sea. Irma was a near doomsday scenario for all of SE FL but that's been about it since Andrew and Betsy 27 years before that.
The GFS has been delivering us majors for years but the reality is, it's been difficult for systems of any strength to get here. I have retired the generator purchased post-Wilma for an inverter generator, I'm much better prepared for the next Wilma than the first one.
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Re: Southeast Florida Hurricane Season

#27 Postby CourierPR » Sun Aug 07, 2022 6:31 am

In his Saturday Summary, Weatherbell Meteorologist Joe Bastardi gives a detailed explanation of why the cap is about to come off to allow active tropical development.
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Southeast Florida Hurricane Season

#28 Postby skyline385 » Sun Aug 07, 2022 6:34 am

Patrick99 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Andrew was an anomaly that happened during what was a below average season, which really gave meaning to the messaging "it only takes one storm...". For SFL though, historically August has the least hurricane strikes out of ASO.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220807/c0b467c317e6d57dfe457ce4c38103ac.jpg

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk



If you count the first two weeks of August, yes. But nobody in tune with FL tropical history does that. That's a pretty high number considering most of them were 2nd half strikes. Charley was the most recent and ONLY August major that snuck through before 8/15. Charley came in on 8/13. The other 5 August MAJOR canes since 1850 have all been post 8/15. Of the 5 majors post 8/15 only one was not an east coast strike. The other 4 were strikes were Jupiter (1871), Lake Worth (1949), Homestead (Andrew 1992), Miami (1888). Furthermore, just 10 majors IN TOTAL NO MATTER THE DATE have hit the FL East Coast since 1850. None north of Martin County. That average is one every 17 years and rising since it's been 30 years now since Andrew.

I'd have to dive down into the 1's and 2's to see those breakdowns.


Have been in a drought for sure since the coast was absolutely peppered with majors in the 20s and 40s. Maybe that was the real anomaly rather than the norm. Everything lately seems to bifurcate into Caribbean/Gulf or out to sea. Irma was a near doomsday scenario for all of SE FL but that's been about it since Andrew and Betsy 27 years before that.

It honestly requires a very specific setup for a strike from the SE on SFL where the ridge off the east coast is sized perfectly to allow to hit SFL from the bottom while pushing against the strong recurving tendency of a major and at the same time not be too strong to slam it into Cuba or is just very firmly entrenched to allow a hit from the east like Andrew. Matthew and Floyd are recent examples of the former where they weren’t strong enough to fight off the recurve, Irma is one where it was too strong and Dorian is an example of the latter where the ridge gave away before the system slammed into us. Honestly it’s just so much easier for an October strike because Fl is right in the natural path of late Caribbean systems being pulled away by troughs.


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Re: RE: Re: Southeast Florida Hurricane Season

#29 Postby toad strangler » Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:05 am

jlauderdal wrote:
Patrick99 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:

If you count the first two weeks of August, yes. But nobody in tune with FL tropical history does that. That's a pretty high number considering most of them were 2nd half strikes. Charley was the most recent and ONLY August major that snuck through before 8/15. Charley came in on 8/13. The other 5 August MAJOR canes since 1850 have all been post 8/15. Of the 5 majors post 8/15 only one was not an east coast strike. The other 4 were strikes were Jupiter (1871), Lake Worth (1949), Homestead (Andrew 1992), Miami (1888). Furthermore, just 10 majors IN TOTAL NO MATTER THE DATE have hit the FL East Coast since 1850. None north of Martin County. That average is one every 17 years and rising since it's been 30 years now since Andrew.

I'd have to dive down into the 1's and 2's to see those breakdowns.


Have been in a drought for sure since the coast was absolutely peppered with majors in the 20s and 40s. Maybe that was the real anomaly rather than the norm. Everything lately seems to bifurcate into Caribbean/Gulf or out to sea. Irma was a near doomsday scenario for all of SE FL but that's been about it since Andrew and Betsy 27 years before that.
The GFS has been delivering us majors for years but the reality is, it's been difficult for systems of any strength to get here. I have retired the generator purchased post-Wilma for an inverter generator, I'm much better prepared for the next Wilma than the first one.


We have had three strikes on the east coast in the 2000's as we all know. Frances 2, Jeanne 3, Katrina 1
That would be a clean average of once every seven years. Problem is TWO of those hit within TWO weeks of each other :lol:
Then we have had a number of close calls. Irima ( which was a strike, just not SE FL), Matthew, Dorian, Isaias (fell apart down here)

So these storms are always going to be "around" as the hurricane climo super highway is not far off our east coast.
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Re: Southeast Florida Hurricane Season

#30 Postby toad strangler » Sun Aug 07, 2022 11:40 am

Preliminary study and number crunching for the ENTIRE E Coast of FL (sorry SE only dudes) Miami Dade through Nassau shows that since 1850 there have been the following EAST COAST strikes:

12 - Major Hurricanes - ALL 12 FROM MARTIN COUNTY TO DADE. Nothing north of there.
17 - Cat 1 & 2 - SIX of these NORTH of MARTIN COUNTY
24 - Tropical Storms

*Every one of the 12 majors was POST 8/15
*Only TWO hurricanes since 1850 have struck the east coast in July and just barely. A cat 2 on 7/28/1926 in VOLUSIA COUNTY and a Cat 1 on 7/30/1933 in MARTIN COUNTY.
*23 of the 29 hurricanes to hit were POST 8/15

Most eye popping find for me was that in 1871 there were two strikes only 8 days apart in MARTIN county. A cat 2 and a Cat 3 .... A near carbon copy of 2004 Frances & Jeanne in MARTIN county.

So, easy math tells us that there is a Minimum Cat 1 strike SOMEWHERE on the FL E Coast every 5.931 years and rising since we are now going on year 17 since Cat 1 Katrina landfall in Broward County.

Throw in TS strikes because as we know, they can be very impactful (Fay) - and we are at one TC every 3.226 years. We are now going on 12 years since Bonnie in Dade County 2010. I'd say the FL East Coasty is overdue if there was ever such a thing in the tropics. But I'm inclined to think that there is too much randomness in tropical strikes for them to behave to a statistical average :D
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Re: Southeast Florida Hurricane Season

#31 Postby Spacecoast » Mon Aug 08, 2022 1:54 pm

toad strangler wrote:So, easy math tells us that there is a Minimum Cat 1 strike SOMEWHERE on the FL E Coast every 5.931 years and rising since we are now going on year 17 since Cat 1 Katrina landfall in Broward County.


Either the East coast is overdue, or the concept of 'return rate' is mistaken. The idea that landfall locations follow any kind of cyclical oscillation seems wrong. One could calculate a return rate on a completely random set of numbers, but it would not have any degree of be predictive accuracy

While it is true that (historically) a CAT1+ struck the FL E coast (on average) every 5.9 years, the min value is 8 days(Martin county), and the max value is perhaps many times 5.9. So maybe a return rate of: 5.931 years (+/- 5.930 years) would be accurate, but not useful.
Definitely not a repeatable, sinusoidal cycle.

toad strangler wrote:I'd say the FL East Coasty is overdue if there was ever such a thing in the tropics. But I'm inclined to think that there is too much randomness in tropical strikes for them to behave to a statistical average :D


I'm inclined to agree with you. It appears to be loosely constrained chaos, subject to thousands of different variables.

Some areas do however have a higher historical track density than others, which is measurable. Monroe County historically has a 30% probability, while Flagler County only has 14% probability (for an 'average' season). 2022 is expected to be higher.

CSU has done a excellent job of calculating these relative probabilities, and have recently updated their county level numbers. Keep in mind that higher probabilities are generally the result of larger targets.
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Re: Southeast Florida Hurricane Season

#32 Postby toad strangler » Thu Aug 11, 2022 5:25 pm

So someone please correct me if I’m wrong. The ENTIRE Florida east coast is in the longest stretch without at least a Cat 1 East Coast strike since the onset of “modern data”

1850 - 1871 (21 years)
2005 - 2022 (17 years)
1950 - 1964 (14 years)
1965 - 1979 (14 years)
1979 - 1992 (13 years)
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