Tropical Wave south of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 97L)

[zzh]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
later this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for some gradual development of this system while it
moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic
during the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[MarioProtVI]

Finally, something to track.

[AtlanticWind]

Now the real Hurricane season begins....

[skyline385]

0Z EPS, almost all members are now OTS. More interestingly, why does the EPS have so many 980-999mb members coming off Africa next?




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[cycloneye]

0Z EPS, almost all members are now OTS. More interestingly, why does the EPS have so many 980-999mb members coming off Africa next?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220806/462cace704758efa8b0cf290d491a739.jpg


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And very high in latitude.

[cycloneye]

[skyline385]

0Z EPS, almost all members are now OTS. More interestingly, why does the EPS have so many 980-999mb members coming off Africa next?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220806/462cace704758efa8b0cf290d491a739.jpg


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And very high in latitude.

Andy thinks its an EPS issue but could be a strong wave coming off

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1555879509878095872

[gatorcane]

I know this wave hasn’t even emerged yet but that is quite a trough cut/off low (for the summer) along the eastern seaboard of the US the GFS shows in the long-range:

[WiscoWx02]

I know this wave hasn’t even emerged yet but that is quite a trough cut/off low (for the summer) along the eastern seaboard of the US the GFS shows in the long-range:

https://i.postimg.cc/Pq3VPbqT/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh168-240.gif

If there wasn’t a date on this model run I would think it’s October or November with all that troughing…don’t think I’ve ever seen that before this time of year.

[Spacecoast]

0Z ECMF Genesis....


and FSU Genesis probability:

[toad strangler]

12z GFS shows Danielle genesis in the far Eastern MDR before poofing out just prior and to the N of the Lesser A's

[Emmett_Brown]

12z GFS shows Danielle genesis in the far Eastern MDR before poofing out just prior and to the N of the Lesser A's

The GFS shows a 500 mb trough in the E Conus at 240 hours, and 0Z ECMWF shows more ridging, which is typical this far out. My guess would be a delayed formation that would allow the wave to move more west before developing. Guesses at this range being low probability of course.

[MHC Tracking]

[cycloneye]

[captainbarbossa19]

Average first Atlantic hurricane forms August 11. We will see what this wave does, but I would not be surprised to see this become stronger than models currently show.

[floridasun]

My question is how strong is high going be to north of system going form in atlantic ocean week how faw west will it go?

[gatorcane]

The Euro is going with development beyond 5 days with a track well NE of the islands. Look how the Bermuda High centered just off the SE US coast gets pummeled by an anomalously strong trough for this time of year and that giant mid-upper level low over the North-Central Atlantic moving SW near the Azores which erodes just about any 500MB ridging to the north of the low. The GFS is showing temps across the Northeastern US in the uppers 40s and low 50s next weekend which is well below normal:

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/stormchasernick/status/1555893386124705793

[aspen]

The Euro is going with development beyond 5 days with a track well NE of the islands. Look how the Bermuda High centered just off the SE US coast gets pummeled by an anomalously strong trough for this time of year and that giant mid-upper level low over the North-Central Atlantic moving SW near the Azores which erodes just about any 500MB ridging to the north of the low. The GFS is showing temps across the Northeastern US in the uppers 40s and low 50s next weekend which is well below normal:

https://i.postimg.cc/Gt0r1F0h/ec-fast-z500a-Norm-atl-fh96-192.gif

That’s impossible for August. The GFS is out of its mind. It’s been averaging in the mid 80s to low 90s for the last few weeks, no way it will plummet by 40 degrees in the same month.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like a circle soon for the wave exiting Africa soon. GFS has this developing within 72 hours.