Tropical Wave south of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 97L)

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caneman
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Re: Tropical Wave off the African Coast

#61 Postby caneman » Mon Aug 08, 2022 5:21 am

Hammy wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Hammy wrote:Seems like the GFS can be completely discarded as with other seasons when it comes to genesis.

GFS dropped Bonnie before the Euro and CMC. Why shouldn't we trust it here?


The model has a history of showing phantom storms as close as 48 hours in the MDR/Caribbean, while completely missing storms that actually do form. NAM has a better track record, having caught several Gulf/East Coast storms that no other model picked up on.


Actually if memory serves me correctly the GFS had the best performance last year. As always, each model is just a tool in the toolbelt. All should be considered because different ones will be better suited for the job than another depending on the situation.
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Re: Tropical Wave off the African Coast

#62 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 08, 2022 5:38 am

06z GFS much more bullish.

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Re: Tropical Wave off the African Coast

#63 Postby Nimbus » Mon Aug 08, 2022 5:43 am

Looks like the 06 GFS has a front with embedded 1008 mb surface low eroding the mid Atlantic ridge on the 13th.
So still a fish but now we are down to 5 days so probably some real signal there.
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Re: Tropical Wave off the African Coast

#64 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 08, 2022 6:41 am

Danielle survives across the entire Atlantic on the 06z GFS and smacks Long Island/Cape Cod as a Cat 2/3. It’s track is also a little further south this run compared to yesterday.
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Re: Tropical Wave off the African Coast

#65 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 08, 2022 6:44 am

aspen wrote:Danielle survives across the entire Atlantic on the 06z GFS and smacks Long Island/Cape Cod as a Cat 2/3. It’s track is also a little further south this run compared to yesterday.



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Re: Tropical Wave off the African Coast

#66 Postby ouragans » Mon Aug 08, 2022 6:54 am

Up to 20/40
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far
eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde islands is
associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear
generally conducive for gradual development of this system while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression
could form around the middle to latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: Tropical Wave south of the Cabo Verde Islands

#67 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 08, 2022 6:56 am

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Re: Tropical Wave south of the Cabo Verde Islands

#68 Postby ouragans » Mon Aug 08, 2022 7:00 am

TWD at 12z
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 19W from
03N to 20N moving westward at 5-10 kt. Satellite imagery shows
increasing numerous moderate to convection from 10N to 15N between
the coast of Africa and 22W. This activity also extends inland
Africa for 180 nm. Environmental conditions appear generally
favorable for gradual development and a tropical depression may
form around the middle to latter part of the week as the wave
moves into the central tropical Atlantic. The current outlook
states that tropical development is not expected within the next
48 hours, but there is a medium chance within 5 days.
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Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is just a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.

David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris '95, Luis '95, Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W

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Re: Tropical Wave south of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 97L)

#69 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 08, 2022 7:09 am

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