How many named storms will form in September?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K

How many named storms will form in September?

Poll ended at Wed Aug 31, 2022 5:22 pm

One
5
5%
Two
9
9%
Three
11
11%
Four
13
14%
Five
18
19%
Six
13
14%
Seven or more
19
20%
None will form
8
8%
 
Total votes: 96

Message
Author
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#61 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Sep 02, 2022 8:13 pm

Landy wrote:Well, with 91L likely becoming TS Earl next advisory, looks like we already have our second voting option out. :D


I may be able to get the 6 right, September is going to show no mercy after an extremely unexpected 0/0/0 August for a La Nina year.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#62 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Sep 02, 2022 8:24 pm

How hard could it be to get to at least Ian by month's end? :lol: Can't be that hard, just 4 more named storms during the most notorious month of hurricane season, right?
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#63 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 03, 2022 7:09 am

My guess of 3 does look too bad now that all the models have dropped development after Earl. This season will likely struggle to get even a few more named storms.
2 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#64 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Sep 16, 2022 7:48 am

Who knew that the chances of seeing 5 NSs already form this month (yes, I'm including those 2 lemons now because who knows really if they'll be even at least quick spin ups?) would be a plausible thing to see? :lol:
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#65 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:11 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Who knew that the chances of seeing 5 NSs already form this month (yes, I'm including those 2 lemons now because who knows really if they'll be even at least quick spin ups?) would be a plausible thing to see? :lol:


Who knew that the chances of seeing 6 NSs form this month would be a plausible thing to see? :lol:
1 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1912
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#66 Postby Teban54 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:12 pm

aspen wrote:My guess of 3 does look too bad now that all the models have dropped development after Earl. This season will likely struggle to get even a few more named storms.

The guess does look horrible, but for completely opposite reasons.
1 likes   

User avatar
weeniepatrol
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 852
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:30 pm
Location: WA State

Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#67 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat Sep 24, 2022 2:52 am

aspen wrote:No more generous estimates. I’m going with just 3 storms. Everything we’ve seen over the last month has shown that many favorable indicators turned out to be wrong, probably due to the triple-dip Nina or some other factor we just don’t know about yet. With that said, my vote will probably be too conservative even with a near to below-average season.


aspen wrote:My guess of 3 does look too bad now that all the models have dropped development after Earl. This season will likely struggle to get even a few more named storms.



how many seasons will it take before we learn :lol: no offense
6 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#68 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:44 am

I got it correct! I knew that September was going to show no mercy! :eek:
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#69 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:29 am

Whoever chose 6 (including me) may get it right after all.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Stormybajan
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 428
Joined: Thu May 20, 2021 3:21 pm
Location: Windward Islands

Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#70 Postby Stormybajan » Sat Oct 01, 2022 5:11 am

Damn, im kinda salty about TD11 flopping after being around for like 2 weeks and not becoming Julia :roll: . Well..atleast I was close to my prediction with 7 tropical cyclones
3 likes   
Sad West Indies and Manchester United fan ⚽️


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: kevin, SteveM, Zonacane and 56 guests