How many named storms will form in September?

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How many named storms will form in September?

Poll ended at Wed Aug 31, 2022 5:22 pm

One
5
5%
Two
9
9%
Three
11
11%
Four
13
14%
Five
18
19%
Six
13
14%
Seven or more
19
20%
None will form
8
8%
 
Total votes: 96

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ConvergenceZone
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Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#21 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Aug 14, 2022 10:44 am

I went with 2. I think it will end up being a much slower season than predicted.....
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Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#22 Postby FireRat » Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:11 am

AnnularCane wrote:
FireRat wrote:7 or more, cuz why not :grrr:
11 NS to be precise, and yes I'm rolling the dice big time lol


This is exactly what I was about to post so I'm claiming partial credit. :grrr: (Except for 11 NS, I'm thinking more like 8.)


Hahaha nice! 8 would be tough enough, let alone my 11. It would be nuts at this point if we nail it with the September poll :lol:
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Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#23 Postby chaser1 » Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:39 am

Was debating between 6-7 but went with 6. I'm less apt to think they'll be long-trackers with half developing in the GOM/W. Caribbean, with others developing between 55-75W with the "sweet-spot" around either side of the Rock. For bonus points, my hunch for Major Landfall threats are Hermine and Ian
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Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#24 Postby canebeard » Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:37 pm

Not a prediction, but 1961 might be an optimistic possibility for what can happen in what appears to be a slow year. Only one named storm before September, then 2 cat 5s, 2 cat 4s, and a cat 3. Keep hope alive.

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Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#25 Postby LemieT » Mon Aug 15, 2022 7:58 am

I went with 5 NS, of which I expect 2-3 to be hurricanes.
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Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#26 Postby LarryWx » Mon Aug 15, 2022 2:04 pm

I went with the genesis of 6 NS in September. Why?

1. 3rd year Niña 2000 had 7, but ACE much higher as of 8/15 in 2000 due to Alberto and 7 was by far largest # for a 3rd year La Niña. So, I reduced the 7 slightly.

2. Recent La Niña in Sept: 8, 9, 4, 5...these average 6.5

3. Low ACE as of 8/15 analogs for non-El Nino since 1995:
6, 3, 4, 7, 7.....these average 5.4

Considering all of the above, I was deciding between 5 and 6 and went with 6.
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Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#27 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 16, 2022 7:15 pm

LarryWx wrote:I went with the genesis of 6 NS in September. Why?

1. 3rd year Niña 2000 had 7, but ACE much higher as of 8/15 in 2000 due to Alberto and 7 was by far largest # for a 3rd year La Niña. So, I reduced the 7 slightly.

2. Recent La Niña in Sept: 8, 9, 4, 5...these average 6.5

3. Low ACE as of 8/15 analogs for non-El Nino since 1995:
6, 3, 4, 7, 7.....these average 5.4

Considering all of the above, I was deciding between 5 and 6 and went with 6.


Thank you Larry for participating in this poll. Your great analysis with stats that you always do are great. Let's see what the reallity brings.
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Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#28 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 16, 2022 7:19 pm

This is one of the best polls I have made in terms of participation with 2 weeks to close for voting and how close are all the options in voting and the percents. Those who have not voted yet, do so before it ends on the 31rst at 6:22 PM EDT.
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Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#29 Postby Teban54 » Tue Aug 16, 2022 8:38 pm

As of August 16, 9:30pm EDT, current results are as follows:
- 0 storms: 6
- 1 storm: 4
- 2 storms: 8
- 3 storms: 8
- 4 storms: 8
- 5 storms: 12
- 6 storms: 11
- 7 storms or more: 10

If we count "7 or more" as 7, that gives an average of 4.06 storms predicted by all voters. In contrast, the August poll had an average of 3.85 storms, in a much less favorable month based on climatography.

Years with fewest storms forming in September:
- 0 storms: 1913, 1930
- 1 storm: 1868, 1890, 1899, 1902, 1914, 1917, 1925, 1929, 1935, 1939, 1946, 1997
- 2 storms: 1864, 1904, 1907, 1909, 1910, 1911, 1912, 1918, 1922, 1938, 1947, 1962, 1972, 1973, 1976, 1979, 1982, 1983, 1986, 1989, 1990, 1994, 1996, 2012, 2014

It should be noted that in many of these years, there were storms formed in late August but lasted into September, if not spent the majority of their life in September.

Almost all of them were during -AMO eras and/or in the pre-satellite era when OTS storms could have been easily missed. The only ones interesting are 1996, 1997, 2012 and 2014. Of these, 1997 and 2014 were during (developing) El Ninos, while 1996 and 2012 had higher storm counts in August and October. 1996 and 2012 also produced at least one major each in September, especially 1996 (C4 Hortense and C3 Isidore).

I find it shocking that 9% of voters actually voted for 0 storms, which had never happened in the satellite era, even during extremely slow years. 27% of voters (one in four) voted for a repeat of these years listed above (2 storms or less). That's just way too pessimistic and won't verify, IMHO.
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Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#30 Postby St0rmTh0r » Tue Aug 16, 2022 8:50 pm

im going with 11, September is going to show why its the peak month for hurricanes. i think a lot of people will be eating their words stained when it is all said and done.
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Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#31 Postby FireRat » Wed Aug 17, 2022 12:37 am

St0rmTh0r wrote:im going with 11, September is going to show why its the peak month for hurricanes. i think a lot of people will be eating their words stained when it is all said and done.


Haha nice! Good to see I'm not alone anymore with the 11. I think September will be the month that will either make or break the 2022 season number predictions.
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Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#32 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 17, 2022 2:56 am

FireRat wrote:
St0rmTh0r wrote:im going with 11, September is going to show why its the peak month for hurricanes. i think a lot of people will be eating their words stained when it is all said and done.


Haha nice! Good to see I'm not alone anymore with the 11. I think September will be the month that will either make or break the 2022 season number predictions.


11 would break 2020's record of 10
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Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#33 Postby St0rmTh0r » Wed Aug 17, 2022 4:58 pm

Hammy wrote:
FireRat wrote:
St0rmTh0r wrote:im going with 11, September is going to show why its the peak month for hurricanes. i think a lot of people will be eating their words stained when it is all said and done.


Haha nice! Good to see I'm not alone anymore with the 11. I think September will be the month that will either make or break the 2022 season number predictions.


11 would break 2020's record of 10

im thinking that record is going to be broken. September is setting up to be very favorable. I have no doubt there will be mass evacs in the next month. people should get prepared now
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Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#34 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed Aug 17, 2022 10:39 pm

2 or 3 and I might be generous with my estimate.

Unless things drastically change during the next three weeks this season will probably be a bust, yay. :sun:
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Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#35 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 18, 2022 1:23 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:2 or 3 and I might be generous with my estimate.

Unless things drastically change during the next three weeks this season will probably be a bust, yay. :sun:



I totally agree with you. When there's lots of dry air out there, that just doesn't go away in a couple of days............While I think we could get a couple of tropical storms earlier, I think the first hurricane will form by the Middle of September.
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Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#36 Postby psyclone » Fri Aug 19, 2022 1:33 pm

I was jumping between 3 and 4 before coming to my senses and going with 0. Total season cancel. Also 0 for October and November while we're at it.
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Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#37 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:19 am

Bumping this because the poll ends in just over 1 week.
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Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#38 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:29 am

Iceresistance wrote:Bumping this because the poll ends in just over 1 week.


Thank you for the bump.
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Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#39 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Aug 23, 2022 3:16 pm

I'm going with 5 cat 5s
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Re: How many named storms will form in September?

#40 Postby Foxfires » Sun Aug 28, 2022 5:20 am

Teban54 wrote:As of August 16, 9:30pm EDT, current results are as follows:
- 0 storms: 6
- 1 storm: 4
- 2 storms: 8
- 3 storms: 8
- 4 storms: 8
- 5 storms: 12
- 6 storms: 11
- 7 storms or more: 10

If we count "7 or more" as 7, that gives an average of 4.06 storms predicted by all voters. In contrast, the August poll had an average of 3.85 storms, in a much less favorable month based on climatography.

Years with fewest storms forming in September:
- 0 storms: 1913, 1930
- 1 storm: 1868, 1890, 1899, 1902, 1914, 1917, 1925, 1929, 1935, 1939, 1946, 1997
- 2 storms: 1864, 1904, 1907, 1909, 1910, 1911, 1912, 1918, 1922, 1938, 1947, 1962, 1972, 1973, 1976, 1979, 1982, 1983, 1986, 1989, 1990, 1994, 1996, 2012, 2014

It should be noted that in many of these years, there were storms formed in late August but lasted into September, if not spent the majority of their life in September.

Almost all of them were during -AMO eras and/or in the pre-satellite era when OTS storms could have been easily missed. The only ones interesting are 1996, 1997, 2012 and 2014. Of these, 1997 and 2014 were during (developing) El Ninos, while 1996 and 2012 had higher storm counts in August and October. 1996 and 2012 also produced at least one major each in September, especially 1996 (C4 Hortense and C3 Isidore).

I find it shocking that 9% of voters actually voted for 0 storms, which had never happened in the satellite era, even during extremely slow years. 27% of voters (one in four) voted for a repeat of these years listed above (2 storms or less). That's just way too pessimistic and won't verify, IMHO.


Shocking? I mean I'm under the impression that those people are, well, joking (in response to a quiet August), because damn, 2013 had more than September storms than that lol.
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