Tropical Wave moving over the Yucatan (Is invest 99L)

[zzh]

A tropical wave currently located over the central Caribbean Sea is
forecast to move across Central America and emerge over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, where an area of low pressure could
form by the end of this week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter as it moves slowly to the northwest or
north-northwest over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[InfernoFlameCat]

This was not on my radar.

[Wampadawg]

This was not on my radar.

Tis the season!

[ElectricStorm]

Yep models have been showing this disturbance moving into the gulf for several days now. Definitely has potential to become Danielle imo

[KatDaddy]

Time to watch the GOM later this week.

[weeniepatrol]

Decent 200mb anticyclone aloft.

Per mimic, it (for now) has a high TPW infeed from the EPAC via Panama.

[aspen]

Seeing how 98L was able to become what was most likely a TD in a similar amount of time, I think this has a decent shot of becoming a weak storm, as long as it doesn’t stay too close to Mexico. Approximately two days to develop probably isn’t enough time for it to exceed mid-grade TS status, but who knows how the track and timing might shift.

[jasons2k]

Update from Houston met Jeff Lindner:

Tropical wave currently over the southern Caribbean Sea will move west into central America over the next few days and then this wave axis will turn NW over the Bay of Campeche where conditions may become increasing favorable for tropical cyclone development. The National Hurricane Center is now highlighting this area as a potential area for development late this week at currently a 20% chance. Some of the global models and their respect ensemble members have been hinting at development in this part of the basin and today’s trend has continued if not increased some. With a frontal boundary dropping southward toward the TX coast late this week, conditions south of that boundary will become increasingly favorable for low pressure to potentially develop along the tropical wave axis. Guidance that develops an area of low pressure moves it in the general direction of NE MX or S TX.

For now this is an area that will need to be watched closely over the next several days.

Persons along the TX coast should monitor forecasts at least one time per day for any changes.

[Wampadawg]

Update from Houston met Jeff Lindner:

Tropical wave currently over the southern Caribbean Sea will move west into central America over the next few days and then this wave axis will turn NW over the Bay of Campeche where conditions may become increasing favorable for tropical cyclone development. The National Hurricane Center is now highlighting this area as a potential area for development late this week at currently a 20% chance. Some of the global models and their respect ensemble members have been hinting at development in this part of the basin and today’s trend has continued if not increased some. With a frontal boundary dropping southward toward the TX coast late this week, conditions south of that boundary will become increasingly favorable for low pressure to potentially develop along the tropical wave axis. Guidance that develops an area of low pressure moves it in the general direction of NE MX or S TX.

For now this is an area that will need to be watched closely over the next several days.

Persons along the TX coast should monitor forecasts at least one time per day for any changes.

Geeez Jeff is usually pretty conservative about these things

[SoupBone]

What's the timing on this? Weekend?

[Iceresistance]

What's the timing on this? Weekend?

Weekend into early next week by current model trends.

[jasons2k]

It may have to deal with some dry air which would limit development.

[SoupBone]

It may have to deal with some dry air which would limit development.

Are you sure? 98L seemed to moisten up everything for it.

[AtlanticWind]

Have to say when a disturbance gets into the Bay of Campeche this time of year
they usually develop to some degree and many times quite rapidly if they can
stay over water.

[Nimbus]

This was not on my radar.

This was a 1013 mb surface low rolling through Barbados a few days ago.
Pressure gradient profile was quite shallow and only gradually returned to 1016 mb a day later.
Thought the models might be using this wave to reinforce some lift from the seasonal monsoon near Panama?

[SoupBone]

This wave only exists because Wxman57 said he was taking off a few days. I guess he's working this weekend now.

[ouragans]

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave currently located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is forecast to move across Central America during the next few days and emerge over the Bay of Campeche, where an area of low pressure could form on Friday. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[jasons2k]

It may have to deal with some dry air which would limit development.

Are you sure? 98L seemed to moisten up everything for it.

Look at the medium range SAL forecasts. Could be an inhibiting factor.

[Steve]

Surprise? No. 98L was an interlude. Call to watch Texas end of this week from Saturday a week ago remains. 98L was an interlude with a weak MJO signal. Global MJO Models drop into Phase 1 between the 18th and 20th. So if the signal is stronger than what we had with 98L, you'd have to expect a more defined system to develop. Of course they've been struggling with their call for amplification and a dive into Phase 2 and have been slowing down the progression. So I'm not trusting them over 50% until we see where we're at on Thursday or Friday.

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff:

Tropical wave will emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche late this week.

A tropical wave currently over the far SW Caribbean Sea will be approaching the eastern portions of central America today and then moving WNW in the general direction of the Bay of Campeche over the next 48 hours. No development of this wave is expected over the next 48 hours as it interacts with the land areas of central America.

Once the wave axis reaches the Bay of Campeche on Thursday, some slow development into an area of low pressure will be possible. Current NHC outlook maintains the 20% chance of development over the SW/W Gulf late this week/weekend. Where any low pressure area that may develop along the wave axis occurs will determine how far north over the western Gulf any system may track. Of all the 00Z models only the ECWMF shows any actual development of a weak low near Brownsville this weekend. However some of the ensemble members from both the GFS and ECWMF show some development…hence the 20% tagging at this point.

Regardless of any tropical development, rain chances will begin to increase as early as late Wednesday as a weak frontal boundary moves into the region and stalls. This feature will support shower and thunderstorm development into the weekend while moisture will also begin to surge NW toward the TX coast with the tropical wave axis entering the western Gulf over the weekend. The frontal boundary washes out late in the weekend, but the tropical wave axis/low near south TX could help bring more moisture northward and maintain rain chances into early next week.

As always with the tropics…check forecasts daily for any changes.