Tropical Wave moving over the Yucatan (Is invest 99L)

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks good. This might be a case of brown ocean effect.
When a tropical disturbance or cyclone strengthens over land, it’s called the brown ocean effect because the moist warm earth is releasing enough latent heat to support the development of a tropical cyclone. Yucatán peninsula has been known to be favorable for cyclone development in some cases.

I think it also has to do with the frictional effects of land vs ocean focusing vorticity...but that is not something I have studied, just heard others talk about it.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Anyone that is viewing the RAMMB/CIRA Slider loops what you would want to see for further development is those lower level clouds start to be pulled in to where the MLC is. Looking at it the MLC is getting much more focused, but I'm not seeing the low level convection move quite yet. The next couple of hours will be telling. There is definitely low level inflow from the SE but that would be expected with a wave axis. If I start seeing it from the SW thats when I know it is trying to focus

I'm seeing that on WeatherNerds.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/?initsatsrc=On&initsatname=GOES-E&initsattype=vis&initcscheme=vis1&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=780&initrange=22.500:-93.000:15.000:-83.750&initloop=True&initnframes=20&initlightningge=On&initlightninggw=Off&initltngfed=Off&initltngtoe=Off&initinterstates=On&initwarnings=On&initlatlon=Off&initascatb=Off&initascatc=Off&initascatambb=Off&initascatambc=Off&initsst=Off

The loop I was referencing is much higher resolution. It is easier to see, but might suck up a good chunk of bandwidth

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone that is viewing the RAMMB/CIRA Slider loops what you would want to see for further development is those lower level clouds start to be pulled in to where the MLC is. Looking at it the MLC is getting much more focused, but I'm not seeing the low level convection move quite yet. The next couple of hours will be telling. There is definitely low level inflow from the SE but that would be expected with a wave axis. If I start seeing it from the SW thats when I know it is trying to focus

There is def a low level vort in there. not quite expansive enough to see much noticeable inflow on the west side outside the convection. With convection already starting to build along the coast and into the BOC. I would waher it wont be long before we wee a sudden shift in the the low level cloud movement over the BOC.

[tropicwatch]

Zoom Earth indicates a surface low east of Belize.

https://zoom.earth/maps/wind-speed/#view=18.339,-90.548,7z

[Wampadawg]

Riddle me this what was the last storm that the models did not see to the last moment

[wxman22]

Riddle me this what was the last storm that the models did not see to the last moment

Tropical storm Colin of this year...

[UTSARoadrunner4]

I see this becoming a strong TS or maybe a weak Hurricane. The only thing working against this thing is time, but things can change pretty quickly.
I hate to bring this storm up, but on August 23, 2017, Harvey was just starting up as a TD in the BOC and was only forecasted to be a strong TS. By the 24th, it was already a hurricane and by the 25th it was a MH. Harvey didn’t start creeping until it got close to the Texas.
I’M NOT SAYING THIS WILL BE HARVEY SO DON’T PANIC!! I’M NOT FEAR MONGERING EITHER!! A storm like Harvey is VERY unlikely to happen again and Harvey had some pretty unique circumstances, like a blocking high.
I’m just saying that this thing looks to good OVER the Yucatán to be discounted. I don’t think the models will have a better grasp on this thing until it hits BOC.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
over northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico have become a little
better organized since yesterday. This system is forecast to emerge
into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow, where an area of low pressure
could form. After that, additional slow development of this system
is possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. By Saturday night, the system is expected to move
inland over northeastern Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Friday,
if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[jaguars_22]

So if this blob comes out further north and east what does the steering look like? Would it go directly into the front or curve due west and hook into northern Mexico southern Texas? If it’s stronger wouldn’t it gain more latitude?

[Teban54]

I see this becoming a strong TS or maybe a weak Hurricane. The only thing working against this thing is time, but things can change pretty quickly.
I hate to bring this storm up, but on August 23, 2017, Harvey was just starting up as a TD in the BOC and was only forecasted to be a strong TS. By the 24th, it was already a hurricane and by the 25th it was a MH. Harvey didn’t start creeping until it got close to the Texas.
I’M NOT SAYING THIS WILL BE HARVEY SO DON’T PANIC!! I’M NOT FEAR MONGERING EITHER!! A storm like Harvey is VERY unlikely to happen again and Harvey had some pretty unique circumstances, like a blocking high.
I’m just saying that this thing looks to good OVER the Yucatán to be discounted. I don’t think the models will have a better grasp on this thing until it hits BOC.

Also Nicholas last year. Its center relocation and subsequent intensification to a Cat 1 were not expected by most.

I think Nicholas is a reasonable ceiling for this system. I have a feeling that at least some people will be caught off guard by this on the bell ringing day.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[BobHarlem]

Cloud tops warmed quite a bit recently, so its not looking as healthy as it was this morning, but the structure still seems relatively sound.

[Aric Dunn]

Cloud tops warmed quite a bit recently, so its not looking as healthy as it was this morning, but the structure still seems relatively sound.

https://i.imgur.com/cv6vtL8.gif

All tropical cyclones must pulse down ( even if you dont notice when it does) during the formative stages.

[wxman57]

I see this becoming a strong TS or maybe a weak Hurricane. The only thing working against this thing is time, but things can change pretty quickly.
I hate to bring this storm up, but on August 23, 2017, Harvey was just starting up as a TD in the BOC and was only forecasted to be a strong TS. By the 24th, it was already a hurricane and by the 25th it was a MH. Harvey didn’t start creeping until it got close to the Texas.
I’M NOT SAYING THIS WILL BE HARVEY SO DON’T PANIC!! I’M NOT FEAR MONGERING EITHER!! A storm like Harvey is VERY unlikely to happen again and Harvey had some pretty unique circumstances, like a blocking high.
I’m just saying that this thing looks to good OVER the Yucatán to be discounted. I don’t think the models will have a better grasp on this thing until it hits BOC.

What is your forecast of a strong TS or weak hurricane based on? The setup is not even remotely similar to Harvey. We never stopped our 7-day track forecasts on Harvey when the NHC declared it post-tropical on August 19th. There was good model support for redevelopment and a track to south Texas. This is just a tropical wave crossing the Yucatan. Conditions across the BoC and western Gulf will be far from ideal for development and strengthening. Nothing similar to Harvey. I'm thinking another weak low bordering on the NHC calling it a depression before it moves into NE Mexico Saturday.

[Senobia]

There's a front pushing off the SE Texas coast near Galveston this evening/ tonight.
Does anyone have an opinion on how this front might affect this system, if at all?
Add fuel?
Push it south?
Pull it north?

Answered above, asked by someone else.

[wxman57]

So if this blob comes out further north and east what does the steering look like? Would it go directly into the front or curve due west and hook into northern Mexico southern Texas? If it’s stronger wouldn’t it gain more latitude?

With ridging over Texas this weekend, northerly winds aloft will be increasing along the Texas coast by Saturday. That keeps all impacts confined to Mexico.

[NDG]

I think the reason why the Euro and GFS are not doing much with this TW as it approaches N MX & S TX is because of very dry air over that area that seems to suck it dry as it approaches that area on Saturday.

[Iceresistance]

Squalls building and arcing to the north, does this have a LLC already?


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/32036744.gif

[cycloneye]

Invest 99L is up