Tropical Wave moving over the Yucatan (Is invest 99L)

[BobHarlem]

Is a recon being scheduled

Wouldn't expect anything until it gets to the BoC, but nothing so far.

Edit, saw this right after I posted this:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 17 AUGUST 2022
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z AUGUST 2022
TCPOD NUMBER.....22-083

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20.0N 94.0W FOR 19/1800Z.

[aspen]

Still very convectively active this morning and looks to be significantly NE of the NHC’s 8am position. I’d say it’s worthy of an orange this afternoon.

So far the Euro is the only model that does anything with it, and even then it’s just a strong low. It’s unfortunately outside the regions covered by the mesoscale models.

[Steve]

ICON is rolling in and doesn't have much. Looks like a small area of convection just along or south of the TX/Mexico border at 90 hours. It also hints at the possibility of a couple of of coastal lows along the US East Coast.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1712&fh=90

[cycloneye]

Is a recon being scheduled

Wouldn't expect anything until it gets to the BoC, but nothing so far.

Edit, saw this right after I posted this:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 17 AUGUST 2022
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z AUGUST 2022
TCPOD NUMBER.....22-083

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20.0N 94.0W FOR 19/1800Z.

This means it will be invest tomorrow or Friday.

[Kingarabian]

GFS continues to not develop this. Shows a lot of convection and some nice 850mb vorticity but it's strung out.

[jasons2k]

Tidbit from from Jeff Lindner’s update at 9:15:

Tropical Wave:
Yesterday evening a large ball of deep convection developed along the northern coast of Honduras, and this area of thunderstorms has maintained for most of the night into this morning with some recent weakening. However, early morning visible images suggest that a mid level circulation is evident over the SW Caribbean Sea north of the Honduras coast, which is well north (and over the water) versus 24 hours ago. IR Satellite Loop for Western Atlantic | Tropical Tidbits It appears this circulation is moving toward the W or WNW and a review of surface observations in this area does not reveal any sort of surface circulation. This feature will likely move inland over Belize or the southern Yucatan late today into Thursday and then emerge over the Bay of Campeche on Friday. How this system maintains while moving over the land areas and where it enters the Bay of Campeche will have a potential impact on what happens over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Generally, this wave axis will track NW toward NE MX or S TX over the weekend and some development is possible. Currently NHC has development chances unchanged at 20% over the next 5 days.

The complicate things even more is the potential for yet another frontal boundary to drop southward early next week into N TX and block any tropical system from exiting the state to the NW or N and would potentially leave a weak tropical system lingering over some part of Texas into next week. Needless to say the uncertainty in the forecast over the weekend into next week is high.

Jeff Lindner

[jaguars_22]

I’m guessing that’s because it’s fast movement?

[SoupBone]

Tidbit from from Jeff Lindner’s update at 9:15:

Tropical Wave:
Yesterday evening a large ball of deep convection developed along the northern coast of Honduras, and this area of thunderstorms has maintained for most of the night into this morning with some recent weakening. However, early morning visible images suggest that a mid level circulation is evident over the SW Caribbean Sea north of the Honduras coast, which is well north (and over the water) versus 24 hours ago. IR Satellite Loop for Western Atlantic | Tropical Tidbits It appears this circulation is moving toward the W or WNW and a review of surface observations in this area does not reveal any sort of surface circulation. This feature will likely move inland over Belize or the southern Yucatan late today into Thursday and then emerge over the Bay of Campeche on Friday. How this system maintains while moving over the land areas and where it enters the Bay of Campeche will have a potential impact on what happens over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Generally, this wave axis will track NW toward NE MX or S TX over the weekend and some development is possible. Currently NHC has development chances unchanged at 20% over the next 5 days.

The complicate things even more is the potential for yet another frontal boundary to drop southward early next week into N TX and block any tropical system from exiting the state to the NW or N and would potentially leave a weak tropical system lingering over some part of Texas into next week. Needless to say the uncertainty in the forecast over the weekend into next week is high.

Jeff Lindner

This would be great as long as the rain is slow over days.

[Iceresistance]

I’m guessing that’s because it’s fast movement?

More like the GFS thinks it's going to speed up.

[Wampadawg]

Tidbit from from Jeff Lindner’s update at 9:15:

Tropical Wave:
Yesterday evening a large ball of deep convection developed along the northern coast of Honduras, and this area of thunderstorms has maintained for most of the night into this morning with some recent weakening. However, early morning visible images suggest that a mid level circulation is evident over the SW Caribbean Sea north of the Honduras coast, which is well north (and over the water) versus 24 hours ago. IR Satellite Loop for Western Atlantic | Tropical Tidbits It appears this circulation is moving toward the W or WNW and a review of surface observations in this area does not reveal any sort of surface circulation. This feature will likely move inland over Belize or the southern Yucatan late today into Thursday and then emerge over the Bay of Campeche on Friday. How this system maintains while moving over the land areas and where it enters the Bay of Campeche will have a potential impact on what happens over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Generally, this wave axis will track NW toward NE MX or S TX over the weekend and some development is possible. Currently NHC has development chances unchanged at 20% over the next 5 days.

The complicate things even more is the potential for yet another frontal boundary to drop southward early next week into N TX and block any tropical system from exiting the state to the NW or N and would potentially leave a weak tropical system lingering over some part of Texas into next week. Needless to say the uncertainty in the forecast over the weekend into next week is high.

Jeff Lindner

Well that leaves a lot of balls in the air

[ScottNAtlanta]

I feel like I have seen this scenario before. Wave further north than forecast, situated underneath an anticyclone, with an ULL moving in tandem to the west. I suspect this is going to develop current model support or not. The models don't have this initialized correctly, and it doesn't look to me like the convection is weakening.

[Nimbus]

GFS continues to not develop this. Shows a lot of convection and some nice 850mb vorticity but it's strung out.

This was a broad shallow wave about 1013 mb and the convection is consistent with light shear from the south blowing over steaming SST's which causes convection to lift.

I didn't look for buoys and didn't see any obvious low level center and since it will probably be over land again by tonight there isn't much to report(yet).

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is forecast to
move across Central America during the next couple of days and
emerge over the Bay of Campeche, where an area of low pressure could
form on Friday. Some gradual development of this system is possible
while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Bucci/Beven

[wxman57]

It appears to be already inland over Belize. Some rotation aloft, but nothing at the surface. I'd give it a 50% chance of becoming a TD or possibly a weak TS prior to moving ashore north of Tampico Saturday. Not much rain for south Texas, but the front will provide some rain across much of the state.

[Hammy]

NAM catching up to the rest of the models with a weak surface low, compared to a flat wind surge, and further east.

[Edwards Limestone]

What stops this from becoming a hurricane once in the BOC? I feel like we've seen this scenario play out before right about this time of year.

Shear, dry air, time? What am I missing?

Not sounding alarm bells, just genuinely curious.

[Nimbus]

What stops this from becoming a hurricane once in the BOC? I feel like we've seen this scenario play out before right about this time of year.

Shear, dry air, time? What am I missing?

Not sounding alarm bells, just genuinely curious.

Low surface pressure.
I looked around for observations and found that the lowest surface pressure was near 1010 mb's as the system passed over Ambergris Caye earlier. Should have some time over warm SST's once it reaches the Bay of Campeche if the model tracks are correct but potentially dry air.

[ChrisH-UK]

The system looks to be disorganised so far and is trying to settle on which rotation for it to settle on. Where the ECWMF have it close to Mexico interestingly the GFS is showing a much more disorganised system head more towards north west Gulf coast.

Belize radar loop

GOES-16 Geo-Colour Loop

GEOS-16 X-ray view (Optical Depth)

[Steve]

What stops this from becoming a hurricane once in the BOC? I feel like we've seen this scenario play out before right about this time of year.

Shear, dry air, time? What am I missing?

Not sounding alarm bells, just genuinely curious.

Time most likely. I think a lot of last night's overnight sustained convection had to do with land/sea interaction as the majority of the deepest convection was over water as you'd expect. But that dies off a lot of times before refiring which it didn't. So the instability had to be the trough interacting with land forcing the lift over the water which more than likely was warmer at night than the land as it usually is in the Gulf and Caribbean in the summer in the overnight hours.

So if it crosses the Yucatan on a WNWish track, it's not going to emerge as anything particularly healthy and would only have a limited time to get over to the State of Tamaulipas or deep south Texas as surge of tropical moisture or relatively weak low pressure system (if it can get a circulation to the surface). OTOH, if the system was farther east and emerged more off the northern tip of the Yucatan into the Gulf instead of the Bay of Campeche, I think it would have more time to get organized. Hard to say how strong it could get because of the likely shear to the north unless the continental high moved east, the front washed out, and the system was left behind. I think in that kind of scenario, you could see a hurricane or at least a strong tropical storm. It's not likely this time though I don't think.

[BobHarlem]

Here's how it's looking on IR this afternoon, still has quite a bit of convection even as it is moving over land.