Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

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Teban54
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#121 Postby Teban54 » Fri Sep 09, 2022 5:52 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
TheDreamTraveler wrote:This actually comes from a thread where he was looking at Atlantic activity during volcanic eruption years. But the Tonga eruption is unprecedented in that it didn't eject much ash into the stratosphere but tons of water vapor, 10% more water vapor than the stratosphere had. That will take 5-10 years to fully dissipate and the NASA study I've mentioned before has said this will effect GLOBAL climate patterns. Extra water vapor would also cause different changes globally than ash would. I really am starting to believe this is a key reason for a lot of the issues occurring right now. The entire northern hemisphere being at 55% ACE of normal is very interesting

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1563190005035520009

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1563148507086667776


Maybe in an alternate Earth somewhere out there, Hunga Tonga did not erupt, and 2022's Atlantic hurricane season produced 3 Cat 5s in July :lol:

Not sure about 3 July Cat 5s, but it wouldn't have been surprising to see Earl and 95L instead named Ian and Julia, with tracks and intensities similar to 2010's Igor and Julia.

That's more in line with virtually all indicators prior to July, which typically showed a hyperactive season.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#122 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 09, 2022 6:20 pm

TheDreamTraveler wrote:This actually comes from a thread where he was looking at Atlantic activity during volcanic eruption years. But the Tonga eruption is unprecedented in that it didn't eject much ash into the stratosphere but tons of water vapor, 10% more water vapor than the stratosphere had. That will take 5-10 years to fully dissipate and the NASA study I've mentioned before has said this will effect GLOBAL climate patterns. Extra water vapor would also cause different changes globally than ash would. I really am starting to believe this is a key reason for a lot of the issues occurring right now. The entire northern hemisphere being at 55% ACE of normal is very interesting

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1563190005035520009

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1563148507086667776


I wonder if this is contributing as well to the poor model accuracy, as there's this huge unknown that's likely not going into them as much as the usual climate patterns
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#123 Postby CFLHurricane » Fri Sep 09, 2022 7:23 pm

Been looking at all the models through the end of September…so when do we start the season prediction thread for 2023?
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#124 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 09, 2022 7:24 pm

CFLHurricane wrote:Been looking at all the models through the end of September…so when do we start the season prediction thread for 2023?


On April 1.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#125 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Sep 10, 2022 10:21 am

One of the biggest surprises of this season, in my opinion, is how dead the Gulf of Mexico has been. There has not been a single TC in the Gulf yet this year! Even with a hostile MDR, I would have expected a few waves to survive and develop farther west, but that hasn't been happening. Of course, this season has been a nice break for the CONUS in terms of impacts so far, but there's no guarantee that holds true into the late season. This season is very clearly unlike 2016-21 in a lot of aspects so far.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#126 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 10, 2022 11:05 am

The Tonga volcanic eruption definitely changed the course of the season, caused the stratosphere in the northern hemisphere to be warmer than normal which in turn stabilizes the atmosphere and in turn decreases thunderstorms but it’s imo just delaying things by a month and October and November could be one for the ages but on the other hand could be just as inactive as it has been
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#127 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Sep 10, 2022 11:50 am

Hurricaneman wrote:The Tonga volcanic eruption definitely changed the course of the season, caused the stratosphere in the northern hemisphere to be warmer than normal which in turn stabilizes the atmosphere and in turn decreases thunderstorms but it’s imo just delaying things by a month and October and November could be one for the ages but on the other hand could be just as inactive as it has been


So basically, October and/or November could be either extremely crazy with the Tropical Cyclones, or it would be like the rest of the season?
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#128 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Sep 10, 2022 3:55 pm

Image

Pretty much sums it all up. :lol: :lol:
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#129 Postby al78 » Sun Sep 11, 2022 4:22 pm

If the volcano is responsible for killing tropical cyclone activity across the Northern Hemisphere, why was the NE Pacific basin so active up until early August?
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#130 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 11, 2022 4:33 pm

I am not totally sure as I've not studied the data, but I'd bet that the azores high is above avg strength later into the season. Normally this is why June and July are so hostile in the MDR and any wave is moving 20-25 knots as they plow into deep layers of SAL. What this does is continue the sal at above normal coverage and intensity along with a stronger eastly african jet over the eastern Part of the mdr. This causes a cap south of 25 north within the tropics that doesn't allow tropical cyclones to develop until they're into the subtropics and easterly shear is biting at their butts until the pacific. This reminds me of the mdr in 2005, 2006 in many ways.

This would make sense that the eastern Pacific produced such early season activity as the waves just don't develop in the Atlantic. They wait to develop there.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#131 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 11, 2022 4:38 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:I am not totally sure as I've not studied the data, but I'd bet that the azores high is above avg strength later into the season. Normally this is why June and July are so hostile in the MDR and any wave is moving 20-25 knots as they plow into deep layers of SAL. What this does is continue the sal at above normal coverage and intensity along with a stronger eastly african jet over the eastern Part of the mdr. This causes a cap south of 25 north within the tropics that doesn't allow tropical cyclones to develop until they're into the subtropics and easterly shear is biting at their butts until the pacific. This reminds me of the mdr in 2005, 2006 in many ways.

This would make sense that the eastern Pacific produced such early season activity as the waves just don't develop in the Atlantic. They wait to develop there.


One thing I learned from Derek Ortt about 15 years ago is that the SAL opens up the system to shear and doesn't allow the wave to ever close off. Looking at the waves that look promising this season this is exactly how they're acting.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#132 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 11, 2022 5:01 pm

al78 wrote:If the volcano is responsible for killing tropical cyclone activity across the Northern Hemisphere, why was the NE Pacific basin so active up until early August?


There's been more moisture over land and less over water. The East Pacific has land immediately north, so the waves are pulling that moisture south, where in the Atlantic there is water (and thus dryer air) to the north, allowing it to remain barely right at average.

The Indian Ocean is similarly slightly above normal.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#133 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Sep 12, 2022 9:13 pm

Just by looking at the MDR right now and convection over Africa...hmm, maybe the former part to the title question seems like a pretty good fit.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#134 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Mon Sep 12, 2022 9:41 pm

Feels so weird for me to not be active on these forums this time of year.

This very well may be my only post of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Total snoozer out there and models not showing this coming to an end any time soon.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#135 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Sep 12, 2022 9:45 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:Feels so weird for me to not be active on these forums this time of year.

This very well may be my only post of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Total snoozer out there and models not showing this coming to an end any time soon.


Umm...are you sure about the last sentence you said? Because there's some pretty good interest in our central Atlantic wave (it has its own thread too).
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#136 Postby CFLHurricane » Tue Sep 13, 2022 3:28 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Umm...are you sure about the last sentence you said? Because there's some pretty good interest in our central Atlantic wave (it has its own thread too).


The models haven’t committed to the central Atlantic wave yet, and quite candidly we should be tracking a major hurricane during peak. But I’m sure most of us are content to accept the blessings of an aberrant season.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#137 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Tue Sep 13, 2022 4:53 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:Feels so weird for me to not be active on these forums this time of year.

This very well may be my only post of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Total snoozer out there and models not showing this coming to an end any time soon.


Umm...are you sure about the last sentence you said? Because there's some pretty good interest in our central Atlantic wave (it has its own thread too).


I'm not overly enthused with the area in the immediate future, and neither are models.

Something to keep tabs on, but there's absolutely no denying how quiet it is currently for peak hurricane Season.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#138 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 14, 2022 8:59 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:Feels so weird for me to not be active on these forums this time of year.

This very well may be my only post of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Total snoozer out there and models not showing this coming to an end any time soon.


Umm...are you sure about the last sentence you said? Because there's some pretty good interest in our central Atlantic wave (it has its own thread too).


I'm not overly enthused with the area in the immediate future, and neither are models.

Something to keep tabs on, but there's absolutely no denying how quiet it is currently for peak hurricane Season.


That this was a mere 24 hours ago should show that the models are failing miserably this year and keep missing actual development.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#139 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 14, 2022 9:43 pm

Hammy wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
Umm...are you sure about the last sentence you said? Because there's some pretty good interest in our central Atlantic wave (it has its own thread too).


I'm not overly enthused with the area in the immediate future, and neither are models.

Something to keep tabs on, but there's absolutely no denying how quiet it is currently for peak hurricane Season.


That this was a mere 24 hours ago should show that the models are failing miserably this year and keep missing actual development.

I wonder if this is another year where models show development in the long term, then drop them in the near term, only to have the storm actually develop. IIRC this also happened to Earl.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#140 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 15, 2022 3:53 pm

I think it's just going to be a dud year in terms of hurricanes. Of course "dud" is a good thing, when you think everything else we've been through this year.....Not to use to seeing 1 active storm in the Atlantic as we get ready to move into the last part of September being that August was so quiet....... I just don't see it getting crazy busy all the sudden. Conditions develop over time and I don't see the Atlantic and Carib all the sudden having great conditions for development.........I'm ready for 2023.......
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