Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

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Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#1 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Aug 29, 2022 3:32 pm

It's August 29th, and the Atlantic has gone nearly 2 months without a named storm and nearly 11 months without a hurricane. The Atlantic has produced just 2.8 ACE so far. The Atlantic might actually go the entire month of August without a tropical cyclone in a La Niña year.

It still looks like September will have some activity. However, models have been inconsistent with 91L's intensity, and even if it becomes a hurricane it likely won't be able to erase the ACE deficit. I still think the Atlantic will have some hurricanes and should be able to avoid finishing with less ACE than 2013, but this is getting absurd at this point.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#2 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Aug 29, 2022 3:36 pm

Was about to say; I think it was about time that this kind of special thread was pulled up. To be honest, I gotta say, I have literally not much idea as to what to think of this season, let alone what will happen. Even 2013 was seeing NSs and soon to be hurricanes by now, and I just cannot seem to find any good analog years for this year as it is behaving so strangely.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#3 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Aug 29, 2022 3:43 pm

I've usually always been a relatively bullish forecaster, and one to caution against "season canceling". I had been thinking that we would just see a delayed switch flip similar to 2018. Of course, we still have half the season left. 91L very could go on to become the first hurricane of the season. It only takes one small window of favorable conditions for a system to become a big problem.

But this is just getting really weird at this point. It doesn't seem plausible that mid-level dry air could lead to this level of inactivity. Even in the quietest seasons, usually August produces at least something.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#4 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 29, 2022 3:45 pm

My season cancel barometer is the EPAC. If it manages to produce another hurricane before the Atlantic it's probably it.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#5 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 29, 2022 3:47 pm

How will we know until late October? We could have a record September but an early halt to the season will still leave us well below normal. Labor day is the 5th this year, and if we have no storms and nothing on the models then in my opinion something is wrong. The Tonga theory is interesting, it's never happened before (that much water vapor) but it will take years, or might be impossible, to say for sure that was it.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#6 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Aug 29, 2022 4:03 pm

You know, I gotta say, something I'm curious to see if it will happen is if this year ends up decently below average in ACE and probably the NS/H/MH count, but features that *one* storm that blows up into a menace and destroys some piece of land and has the season remembered for that one storm alone. Kind of like 1900, 1910, 1935, 1938, or 1992, I suppose.

Inactive does not equate to damage-free, from the way I see things.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#7 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 29, 2022 4:04 pm

IMO if the issue was the Tonga eruption, the EPAC would be dead too. I know the WPAC is slow but it is normal for La Nina.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#8 Postby Teban54 » Mon Aug 29, 2022 4:07 pm

Remember last year during mid-September when everyone complained about a dead MDR season (despite Larry), and the complaints only intensified after Peter and Rose stayed weak?

Then came Sam. Which singlehandedly pushed 2021 to above-average.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#9 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Aug 29, 2022 4:10 pm

Kingarabian wrote:IMO if the issue was the Tonga eruption, the EPAC would be dead too. I know the WPAC is slow but it is normal for La Nina.


Yeah, and the WPAC looks like it's about to produce a monster typhoon after a lengthy period of silence (wondering if all of that heat buildup may actually be helping this new typhoon blow up into something major as well to a certain degree)?

With the WPAC waking up from what looked to be an eternal slumber and with the basin now ready to produce its rather usual monster La Nina-disregarding typhoon, maybe the atmosphere isn't as broken worldwide, and maybe that may be a sign of optimism for the Atlantic basin to produce something big after a rather similar long period of quiet? Who knows really.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#10 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Aug 29, 2022 4:11 pm

Teban54 wrote:Remember last year during mid-September when everyone complained about a dead MDR season (despite Larry), and the complaints only intensified after Peter and Rose stayed weak?

Then came Sam. Which singlehandedly pushed 2021 to above-average.

It is definitely true that one storm could pump a ton of ACE. One long tracked major hurricane could singlehandedly push 2022 above seasons like 2013. As dead as the Atlantic looks, I'd be shocked if it doesn't manage a major hurricane at some point. But to get to above average activity, we would need the second half of the season to be well above average. We'll see.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#11 Postby Emmett_Brown » Mon Aug 29, 2022 4:15 pm

I still think this is going to be an active, backloaded, late start La Nina year. I think we'll see a busy Sept, Oct and maybe even Nov, probably finishing slightly above normal, but still far short of the hyperactive season many forecasted. I think the MDR will probably struggle, but the Caribbean (especially Western Caribbean) will be busy. This year has featured record heat waves and drought across much of N America, which I feel has contributed to the stable dry air being forced into the tropics. Once the heat abates, I think things ramp up quickly. I love a good anomaly though... so I hope we can finish with no named storms for the month of August.
Last edited by Emmett_Brown on Mon Aug 29, 2022 4:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#12 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Aug 29, 2022 4:23 pm

I still think this season will be active, but my 19/9/4 preseason numbers will probably be too high at this point. That being said, this shouldn't be a 2013 or some sort of record breaking inactive season, but I do think the 3rd year Nina might have something to do with it.

I mean while August has been completely dead we still have all of September and October to go, and I'd imagine we'll see some pretty decent activity during those months, starting with 91L IMO
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#13 Postby SteveM » Mon Aug 29, 2022 4:38 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:IMO if the issue was the Tonga eruption, the EPAC would be dead too. I know the WPAC is slow but it is normal for La Nina.


Yeah, and the WPAC looks like it's about to produce a monster typhoon after a lengthy period of silence (wondering if all of that heat buildup may actually be helping this new typhoon blow up into something major as well to a certain degree)?

With the WPAC waking up from what looked to be an eternal slumber and with the basin now ready to produce its rather usual monster La Nina-disregarding typhoon, maybe the atmosphere isn't as broken worldwide, and maybe that may be a sign of optimism for the Atlantic basin to produce something big after a rather similar long period of quiet? Who knows really.


One storm does not preclude an inactive season. I myself think the ship has sailed on the season that was forecast. Whether we end up with an average season, a below average season or a historically quiet season remains to be seen.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#14 Postby Meteophile » Mon Aug 29, 2022 4:40 pm

Sorry for my probably not so good english.

This year i haven't found anything that could cancel the entire season. Making a conclusion just based on a very Low activity at the beginning of the season just doesn't Make sense for me (maybe because i'm not a meteorologist at all). We can Try to understand why the activity was low, then If it seems those factors will keep inhibiting the rest of the season i'll say the probability for an "underperforming" (i call it happy) season will be high.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#15 Postby DioBrando » Mon Aug 29, 2022 4:47 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:It's August 29th, and the Atlantic has gone nearly 2 months without a named storm and nearly 11 months without a hurricane. The Atlantic has produced just 2.8 ACE so far. The Atlantic might actually go the entire month of August without a tropical cyclone in a La Niña year.

It still looks like September will have some activity. However, models have been inconsistent with 91L's intensity, and even if it becomes a hurricane it likely won't be able to erase the ACE deficit. I still think the Atlantic will have some hurricanes and should be able to avoid finishing with less ACE than 2013, but this is getting absurd at this point.


It's over.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#16 Postby Hammy » Mon Aug 29, 2022 4:56 pm

It's clear that something is very much off with the atmosphere, but this seems to be the same thing that's been the case since 2018--there's increasing tendency during August (presumably contributed to by climate change) to see these large, broad waves exiting and, thanks to the size (a full ten degrees between the north and south with a flat pressure gradient) they're pulling in more dry air, and being more exposed to shear, than a more compact wave, even one exiting closer to 15-16N

That said, I doubt we'd be having this discussion this year if not for the fact that, for some reason, the subtropics have been barely able to product storms pretty much since October of last year, for unknown reasons. 2018 for instance had two high-latitude tropical storms during August (if not for that, the month would've been storm-free) and in all likelihood we'll eventually see activity.

The Atlantic really seems to be three basins really--the Caribbean and Gulf (the warmer than normal East Pacific is contributing to decline in activity there, same happened in 2019), subtropics (storms have had an exceptionally difficult time making the transition from non-tropical) and the tropical Atlantic. Each of these seem subject to different variations, so combined with whatever's been going on with the African monsoon since 2018, sooner or later unfavorable conditions in each sub-basin would all line up in the same year.

I still feel the season will be near or slightly above average, but even an above average season is likely to 'underperform' given everybody set their expectations well above even what most agencies were forecasting. But a fun coincidence is we seem to have one season every decade that massively underperforms--1962, 1973, 1982, 1994, 2007 (despite two Cat 5's thanks to the massive La Nina, it was almost 2013 outside the Caribbean), and of course 2013 itself.

One last point that's worth noting: 1999, while the switch flipped earlier, also went longer with no storms: June 19 through August 18 had not one named storm, and I've been saying all along this year would have a delay in the start--so far we're ahead of that, as long as we don't reach September 2 with no storms.
Last edited by Hammy on Mon Aug 29, 2022 5:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#17 Postby MGC » Mon Aug 29, 2022 5:24 pm

I'm getting 1977 vibes this season. 1977 had 6 named storms with 5 being hurricanes. Still got 2 solid months for something to spin up. I'm glad things are slow, 1 year since Ida and 17 since Katrina......MGC
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#18 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 29, 2022 5:47 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
Teban54 wrote:Remember last year during mid-September when everyone complained about a dead MDR season (despite Larry), and the complaints only intensified after Peter and Rose stayed weak?

Then came Sam. Which singlehandedly pushed 2021 to above-average.

It is definitely true that one storm could pump a ton of ACE. One long tracked major hurricane could singlehandedly push 2022 above seasons like 2013. As dead as the Atlantic looks, I'd be shocked if it doesn't manage a major hurricane at some point. But to get to above average activity, we would need the second half of the season to be well above average. We'll see.

It’s entirely possible that 91L can produce nearly as much ACE as the entire 2013 season (which was around 38 IIRC). But the sheer drought of activity, untrustworthy and inactive models, and anomalous presence of dry air everywhere really makes it seem that the rest of peak season will under-achieve. It’s been over a week since the bell rang and 91L is the only thing out there with good chances to develop, despite a couple waves in the next 10 days that might need to be watched.

I’m leaning towards a bust year of 10-14 NS max. It’s possible we don’t even hit 2013’s named storm total, and it would take an incredibly active September through October to get 2022 all the way up to the borderline hyperactive forecasts from earlier this year. Again, it’s been abnormally unfavorable and quiet and dry. The instability and shear issues won’t just magically disappear and allow for a crazy active delayed peak — and I’m a little doubtful we’ll even see a peak in activity. Maybe a couple of storms scattered throughout the month, but nothing crazy like 3-5+ NS active at once like September 2017-20.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#19 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 29, 2022 5:52 pm

tolakram wrote:How will we know until late October? We could have a record September but an early halt to the season will still leave us well below normal. Labor day is the 5th this year, and if we have no storms and nothing on the models then in my opinion something is wrong. The Tonga theory is interesting, it's never happened before (that much water vapor) but it will take years, or might be impossible, to say for sure that was it.


Because everything now. And first. That’s not a hit on aspen for starting the thread. Since people post question threads like how many, where, when, etc. i wonder if I should pose the question - how ruined is your life with a slow starting hurricane season.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#20 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 29, 2022 6:19 pm

Steve wrote:
tolakram wrote:How will we know until late October? We could have a record September but an early halt to the season will still leave us well below normal. Labor day is the 5th this year, and if we have no storms and nothing on the models then in my opinion something is wrong. The Tonga theory is interesting, it's never happened before (that much water vapor) but it will take years, or might be impossible, to say for sure that was it.


Because everything now. And first. That’s not a hit on aspen for starting the thread. Since people post question threads like how many, where, when, etc. i wonder if I should pose the question - how ruined is your life with a slow starting hurricane season.

I kinda wish we got another July tropical storm up here in Connecticut like 2020/21 because this summer has been one of the driest in years and we desperately need a sustained rain event. I think the last one that was more than half an hour to an hour long was several weeks to over a month ago. A tropical storm would’ve been a much-needed rainfall boost up here, one that we still need. But otherwise my chatter about this season underperforming, as well as others’, is just due to curiosity, boredom, and interest in meteorology. A <50 ACE or <10 NS season isn’t gonna break my year, unless one of those storms is a Carol or Long Island Express repeat.
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