Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#161 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 18, 2022 10:29 am

Looking at the prior 10 years, the average number of hurricanes from storms born in Sept is only two. So, Sept of 2022 has already exceeded that mark with three. Of the last 10 years, only 2020 had more with four and 2022 still has another 12 days to go.

Fiona's ACE is likely going to end up quite impressive.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#162 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Sep 18, 2022 10:30 am

This season is starting to feel more like 2014 than 2013, not as many storms but the few storms at peak season that did form were mostly hurricanes in the subtropics.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#163 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:06 pm

Given we have the potential to see 2 systems get named within the next days or so, I genuinely have a feeling that the wave-breaking we saw earlier this season simply delayed the peak and cut down on total NSs (maybe ACE potential too). I found it very hard to believe that especially in a true La Nina like this and with warm MDR ssts, that the wave-breaking would have shut everything down at all points in the season while prohibiting major systems to form like it did in 2013. If anything, imho, Danielle and Earl really helped reintroduce instability in the tropics, and Fiona may also help out as it recurves and blasts through the warm subtropics. Merely weeks ago some talked about the possibility of having zero NSs after Earl, which I was quite skeptical about.

I think October and later this month will be quite interesting to watch. Who knows what October will do, especially with all that warm ocean water in the W. Atlantic?
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#164 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:08 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Given we have the potential to see 2 systems get named within the next days or so, I genuinely have a feeling that the wave-breaking we saw earlier this season simply delayed the peak and cut down on total NSs (maybe ACE potential too). I found it very hard to believe that especially in a true La Nina like this and with warm MDR ssts, that the wave-breaking would have shut everything down at all points in the season while prohibiting major systems to form like it did in 2013. If anything, imho, Danielle and Earl really helped reintroduce instability in the tropics, and Fiona may also help out as it recurves and blasts through the warm subtropics. Merely weeks ago some talked about the possibility of having zero NSs after Earl, which I was quite skeptical about.

I think October and later this month will be quite interesting to watch. Who knows what October will do, especially with all that warm ocean water in the W. Atlantic?


The wave-breaking was dramatically overplayed and overfocused, and (like the TUTT back in June) seems people were treating this as something that's somehow new to this season or unique to inactive ones like 2013.

In the end, it more likely impacts steering more than anything as we're seeing a lot of early recurves, same as years like 1976 and 1981.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#165 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Sep 19, 2022 9:14 pm

Hammy wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Given we have the potential to see 2 systems get named within the next days or so, I genuinely have a feeling that the wave-breaking we saw earlier this season simply delayed the peak and cut down on total NSs (maybe ACE potential too). I found it very hard to believe that especially in a true La Nina like this and with warm MDR ssts, that the wave-breaking would have shut everything down at all points in the season while prohibiting major systems to form like it did in 2013. If anything, imho, Danielle and Earl really helped reintroduce instability in the tropics, and Fiona may also help out as it recurves and blasts through the warm subtropics. Merely weeks ago some talked about the possibility of having zero NSs after Earl, which I was quite skeptical about.

I think October and later this month will be quite interesting to watch. Who knows what October will do, especially with all that warm ocean water in the W. Atlantic?


The wave-breaking was dramatically overplayed and overfocused, and (like the TUTT back in June) seems people were treating this as something that's somehow new to this season or unique to inactive ones like 2013.

In the end, it more likely impacts steering more than anything as we're seeing a lot of early recurves, same as years like 1976 and 1981.

Ill give it to ya, CFS did not do too bad thru September so far.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#166 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:21 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:After this season, I would genuinely be surprised to see serious 2013 2.0 comparisons in subsequent years. Now that we have a major hurricane, 2013 is now a pretty remote analog for 2022. After nearly a decade, 2013 2.0 predictions have all but materialized, and if a season that looked dead at first like 2022 has the ability to spring to life and produce hurricanes (with even a major lol), then it's gotta become to the point that people realize how much of a black swan event 2013 was...right? :lol:



September remember!
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#167 Postby WiscoWx02 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:21 am

AnnularCane wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:After this season, I would genuinely be surprised to see serious 2013 2.0 comparisons in subsequent years. Now that we have a major hurricane, 2013 is now a pretty remote analog for 2022. After nearly a decade, 2013 2.0 predictions have all but materialized, and if a season that looked dead at first like 2022 has the ability to spring to life and produce hurricanes (with even a major lol), then it's gotta become to the point that people realize how much of a black swan event 2013 was...right? :lol:



September remember!


Guess it really goes to show how things can change, I thought this season was toast but Earl saved it IMO by cooling down the subtropics, Fiona is only going to strike even more a blow to those SST when it gets up to Canada too. Now we will finally have more of a temperature gradient between the tropics and extra-tropics...the switch has finally flipped, perhaps a month behind schedule but it has actually happened.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#168 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:40 am

Just a little over a week ago too, the Atlantic looked dead and many including myself were becoming doubtful of what the season would bring. Shows how quick it can change.

August is the new July.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#169 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 20, 2022 1:14 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:After this season, I would genuinely be surprised to see serious 2013 2.0 comparisons in subsequent years. Now that we have a major hurricane, 2013 is now a pretty remote analog for 2022. After nearly a decade, 2013 2.0 predictions have all but materialized, and if a season that looked dead at first like 2022 has the ability to spring to life and produce hurricanes (with even a major lol), then it's gotta become to the point that people realize how much of a black swan event 2013 was...right? :lol:


Back in 2007, a week after Cat 5 Dean, and less than a week before Cat 5 Felix, even before 2013, people were still canceling the season because of models, so I doubt this year will change anything :lol:

I don't recall who it was, but back in August somebody made a point of, what would the reactions be here if we had 2021 but flipped, starting off with a storm or two and then having a massive lull and then everything just came almost back to back after. Seems that's playing out in the end.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#170 Postby SteveM » Tue Sep 20, 2022 2:01 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:After this season, I would genuinely be surprised to see serious 2013 2.0 comparisons in subsequent years. Now that we have a major hurricane, 2013 is now a pretty remote analog for 2022. After nearly a decade, 2013 2.0 predictions have all but materialized, and if a season that looked dead at first like 2022 has the ability to spring to life and produce hurricanes (with even a major lol), then it's gotta become to the point that people realize how much of a black swan event 2013 was...right? :lol:


I'll guess we'll see how the next few weeks pan out. The Atlantic has generally been extremely inactive, so if we have lots of activity over the next few weeks maybe this season can still be busy. Let's see.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#171 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:01 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:After this season, I would genuinely be surprised to see serious 2013 2.0 comparisons in subsequent years. Now that we have a major hurricane, 2013 is now a pretty remote analog for 2022. After nearly a decade, 2013 2.0 predictions have all but materialized, and if a season that looked dead at first like 2022 has the ability to spring to life and produce hurricanes (with even a major lol), then it's gotta become to the point that people realize how much of a black swan event 2013 was...right? :lol:

Eh probably not. Next year during the last week of August, we'll be having the exact same discussions. 2013 reminders will never die! :lol:
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#172 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:17 pm

galaxy401 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:After this season, I would genuinely be surprised to see serious 2013 2.0 comparisons in subsequent years. Now that we have a major hurricane, 2013 is now a pretty remote analog for 2022. After nearly a decade, 2013 2.0 predictions have all but materialized, and if a season that looked dead at first like 2022 has the ability to spring to life and produce hurricanes (with even a major lol), then it's gotta become to the point that people realize how much of a black swan event 2013 was...right? :lol:

Eh probably not. Next year during the last week of August, we'll be having the exact same discussions. 2013 reminders will never die! :lol:


Discussions which will likely begin sometime in July. :lol:
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#173 Postby NotSparta » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:23 pm

This season in a nutshell :lol:

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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#174 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:57 pm

We already have had 3 hurricanes this month. There will very likely be at least a 4th from 98L. If Gaston were to become a H, there would then very likely be 5 this month. If we get to 5, that would tie for the most in Sept. since the active era started in 1995!
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#175 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 20, 2022 6:00 pm

LarryWx wrote:We already have had 3 hurricanes this month. There will very likely be at least a 4th from 98L. If Gaston were to become a H, there would then very likely be 5 this month. If we get to 5, that would tie for the most since the active era started in 1995!


As usual, the handwringing over seasonal busts prove to be at the minimum, too hasty. I guess you can argue about hyperactive and all that but this pattern we are in now is pretty darn explosive. Let's see how September finishes!
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#176 Postby Teban54 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 6:00 pm

LarryWx wrote:We already have had 3 hurricanes this month. There will very likely be at least a 4th from 98L. If Gaston were to become a H, there would then very likely be 5 this month. If we get to 5, that would tie for the most in Sept. since the active era started in 1995!

What are the previous record holders? I know 2017 has to be one, are there any other years?

I remember someone said active Augusts often have quiet Septembers and vice versa. This year is probably the most extreme of a "vice versa" scenario you can get.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#177 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 20, 2022 6:08 pm

Teban54 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:We already have had 3 hurricanes this month. There will very likely be at least a 4th from 98L. If Gaston were to become a H, there would then very likely be 5 this month. If we get to 5, that would tie for the most in Sept. since the active era started in 1995!

What are the previous record holders? I know 2017 has to be one, are there any other years?

I remember someone said active Augusts often have quiet Septembers and vice versa. This year is probably the most extreme of a "vice versa" scenario you can get.


2010, 2005, 2000, and 1998 also had 5
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#178 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 6:19 pm

Is it too late to ring the peak season bell? :wink:

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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#179 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 6:39 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Is it too late to ring the peak season bell? :wink:

https://i.postimg.cc/W4bcY46R/two-atl-5d0-15.png

9/20 is the new 8/20
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#180 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 20, 2022 6:44 pm

Moved a bunch of posts from indicators into this thread. Some of this discussion is good so hopefully you aren't offended if I moved your post, but I want to keep indicators to INDICATORS. Thanks.
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