Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#181 Postby kevin » Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:11 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Is it too late to ring the peak season bell? :wink:

https://i.postimg.cc/W4bcY46R/two-atl-5d0-15.png


The one to the east now also flipped to orange. Looks like 2022 is trying to make up for its slow start.

Image
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#182 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:39 pm

For a brief sec, I thought the orientation of the map was wrong...then I realized that the AOI was actually positioned like that.

I wonder how many systems in the past took that kind of path
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#184 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:34 pm

The fact that we actually have a shot of getting to at least Julia even before the month's end...just wow. Compare that to what was going on in August or even early this month. I knew this season had potential, and look at what's it is already doing now. :grrr:

The Atlantic basin nevers stops to intrigue me in how suddenly it can really get things going. Unlike the EPAC, for instance. Active periods in the Atlantic can start over merely days, and you can get one active storm one day, only to have 4 active ones 2 days later. Atlantic is as Atlantic does. :lol:
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#185 Postby FireRat » Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:03 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:The fact that we actually have a shot of getting to at least Julia even before the month's end...just wow. Compare that to what was going on in August or even early this month. I knew this season had potential, and look at what's it is already doing now. :grrr:

The Atlantic basin nevers stops to intrigue me in how suddenly it can really get things going. Unlike the EPAC, for instance. Active periods in the Atlantic can start over merely days, and you can get one active storm one day, only to have 4 active ones 2 days later. Atlantic is as Atlantic does. :lol:


2022 is trying to pull a "2010" after all, a few weeks late :lol:
Who would've thunk it!
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#186 Postby St0rmTh0r » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:47 pm

every analog for this year showed a late season with a late peak. I predicted 11 storm for september because all the signs pointed to the season not getting going until mid september and peaking through October. classic la nina.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#187 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:03 pm

Well, I never believed anyone who said this season would go blank.

But in fact, this season really was an "bust", considering CSU's forecast of 20 NS/ 10 H/ 5MH in June and July.

What we currently see here is a backloaded season, with an inactive August and main activity focusing on late September/early October.

There is already a powerful storm roaming the Atlantic (Fiona) and this one, after devastating Puerto Rico, seriously threatens Eastern Canada. And now it looks like there is some chance that 98L could become a very strong Hurricane, potentially reaching Category 5.

I'm still confident that 2022 will be able to reach at least levels close to the average amount of ACE (80 - 100 Units).
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#188 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:42 pm

1988 repeat seems like it's actually playing out with the timing of things even if the tracks didn't necessarily match, we're at 7/3/1 same as where 1988 was with the naming, and looks like we might get a major hurricane out of the H storm (on top of having a near literal repeat of TC#6)
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#189 Postby al78 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:41 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:The fact that we actually have a shot of getting to at least Julia even before the month's end...just wow. Compare that to what was going on in August or even early this month. I knew this season had potential, and look at what's it is already doing now. :grrr:


I hope this illustrates the folly of being over-reactive to the here and now and calling season cancel when we have barely got to the halfway point. High intra-seasonal variability is not unusual in the Atlantic basin.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#190 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:44 am

I think it was a very slow start to the season lol. Wow 2022 is rapidly making up for its slow start. 2013 is trashed now.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#191 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:00 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:I think it was a very slow start to the season lol. Wow 2022 is rapidly making up for its slow start. 2013 is trashed now.


After the events this year, I'm just going to automatically throw out and ignore any "it's 2013 again" comments in future hurricane seasons. ESPECIALLY when they're thrown around in July or early August. They will almost never verify anytime soon imho, much like 2005 comparisons would.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#192 Postby Teban54 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:06 pm

4 simultaneous tropical cyclones.

Narrowly missed the window for 4 named storms: 0z best track has TD9 becoming Ian, but Fiona is already extratropical.

And yet, when Earl was gone, people said they expected 2-3 more storms for the season and that's it...
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#193 Postby Teban54 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:08 am

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1574326088884400133



2001 is an extreme late-boomer season, and all others are hyperactive.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#194 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:54 am

Teban54 wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1574326088884400133?t=pE6bh0quP_bBOGrhJXO9EQ&s=19
2001 is an extreme late-boomer season, and all others are hyperactive.


At this point this year is 2001 except August's activity was divided between early July and September.

Barring 99L developing and some last minute surprise in the next week, we'll be ending this month with at least 9/4/2--slightly ahead of 2001's 8/4/2
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#195 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Sep 27, 2022 7:46 am

Image

Season's so done. Nothin is going to form after Earl, and it'll go down even more pathetically than 2013.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#196 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:30 am

Ian is on the verge of Category 5 intensity, and the Atlantic has reached 73 ACE - making the 2022 Atlantic season officially "near normal" by NOAA's definition with two months of hurricane season to go. The season ending on Earl on September 10th was never realistic, and it proves that you can't just assume the whole season will be quiet based on model runs.

While it still appears that 2022 likely won't be as active as initial forecasts, it's not going to be the historically quiet season some expected a few weeks ago either. And Fiona and Ian will both be very impactful storms.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#197 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:34 am

Hunga Tonga apparently didn't stop Ian, yet another Cat 4+ GoM CONUS landfall, from happening.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#198 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:16 pm

Some of the takes from Sep 8-12 range. This is more to illustrate why we shouldn't take quiet models (which have a terrible history regarding genesis) or one storm underperforming as a set in stone indicator for the rest of the season, but I've removed the names as I don't want this to turn into a calling out of individual posters

The season is probably nearly over now. I don’t see how one of the most suppressed years on record can produce anything significant now that we’re slowly easing out of peak climo. Maybe something spins up in the subtropics or mid-latitudes, but as for the deep tropics, it’s going to be very difficult to get anything going. The last system to form in the deep tropics was Bonnie in early July, and now the season feels even more suppressed than a typical July.


Yet another strong TUTT coming down north of the Caribbean for next week, don't look for any tropical activity in the central and eastern Caribbean :double:

https://i.imgur.com/7A92UbN.gif


You know something has gone wrong this season when its peak season and GFS doesn't have anything in the Caribbean/Gulf at max range :D

https://i.imgur.com/gL6xMRW.png


Time to face the facts! We are looking towards the next two weeks with little chance of major action until the end of September.


No, the season is not over, but I believe it will vastly under perform. I am sure we will get some home brew activity in October, but not enough to salvage any forecast involving high activity.


And a nice reminder not to ignore that the THC collapse was the reason for the other hostile conditions through 2013's season, rather than being one minor contributor, and why that season is never a good comparison.

It what nice to have something to watch and it’d going to be cool watching Earl go subtropical…after that, more likely than not see you guys next year. Yeah there have been seasons in the past that didn’t have strong hurricanes in the deep tropics until October but this isn’t 2001, I think of this year is what 2013 was but without the thermohaline circulation IMO, so we saw stronger storms than in 2013 but the wave breaking and dry mid latitude dry air is a similar issue this year as it was then…that’s just how I look at this year as…either way no matter how you look at it because I know many will disagree with my comparison which I totally don’t mind go ahead :D, this season is going to go down alongside 2005, 2020 and 2013 as one of the lost bizarre seasons in recent memory.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#199 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:35 pm

Hammy wrote:Some of the takes from Sep 8-12 range. This is more to illustrate why we shouldn't take quiet models (which have a terrible history regarding genesis) or one storm underperforming as a set in stone indicator for the rest of the season, but I've removed the names as I don't want this to turn into a calling out of individual posters

The season is probably nearly over now. I don’t see how one of the most suppressed years on record can produce anything significant now that we’re slowly easing out of peak climo. Maybe something spins up in the subtropics or mid-latitudes, but as for the deep tropics, it’s going to be very difficult to get anything going. The last system to form in the deep tropics was Bonnie in early July, and now the season feels even more suppressed than a typical July.


Yet another strong TUTT coming down north of the Caribbean for next week, don't look for any tropical activity in the central and eastern Caribbean :double:

https://i.imgur.com/7A92UbN.gif


You know something has gone wrong this season when its peak season and GFS doesn't have anything in the Caribbean/Gulf at max range :D

https://i.imgur.com/gL6xMRW.png


Time to face the facts! We are looking towards the next two weeks with little chance of major action until the end of September.


No, the season is not over, but I believe it will vastly under perform. I am sure we will get some home brew activity in October, but not enough to salvage any forecast involving high activity.


And a nice reminder not to ignore that the THC collapse was the reason for the other hostile conditions through 2013's season, rather than being one minor contributor, and why that season is never a good comparison.

It what nice to have something to watch and it’d going to be cool watching Earl go subtropical…after that, more likely than not see you guys next year. Yeah there have been seasons in the past that didn’t have strong hurricanes in the deep tropics until October but this isn’t 2001, I think of this year is what 2013 was but without the thermohaline circulation IMO, so we saw stronger storms than in 2013 but the wave breaking and dry mid latitude dry air is a similar issue this year as it was then…that’s just how I look at this year as…either way no matter how you look at it because I know many will disagree with my comparison which I totally don’t mind go ahead :D, this season is going to go down alongside 2005, 2020 and 2013 as one of the lost bizarre seasons in recent memory.

That 384 hr GFS run showing nothing but a weak low in the GOM for yesterday, September 27, is why nobody should take long-range GFS runs at face value - regardless of whether they show development or not.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#200 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:00 pm

This is pretty much what every optimistic season tracker has said (since at least 2016) to the "2013 2.0"-callers after a major hurricane hits land and causes death and destruction.

Image
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