PavelGaborik10 wrote:Hammy wrote:PavelGaborik10 wrote:
What was? Fiona is a sheared, elongated, completely exposed mess of a TS.
I think it likely survives and it does have the potential to become a solid Hurricane down the road, but as of this moment it is what it is, an exposed mess that looks more like something you would see on June 15th as opposed to September 15th.
I'm not holding my breath on any sort of turning of the tides regarding the 2022 Atlantic Season any time soon. We'll see what happens over the next several weeks, but conditions out there are clearly extremely hostile in the tropics. Maybe things change as October nears, but the near future looks quite bleak as far as activity goes.
48-72 hours ago the prevailing thought is we'd have nothing the rest of the month, if not the rest of the season, and talk that we'd have nothing at all during the Sep 11-15 period. And no, nothing like this would ever be seen on June 15 as we've only had two storms form in June where this is in the first place.
We're getting only short notice from the global models before storms develop, which is amplifying the quiet into being more than it is, because people are extending that storm-less state into a time frame we aren't even close to yet.
Make no mistake, this season is definitely underperforming, made worse by the fact that everybody here seems to expect a hyperactive season every year. But it's not the 2013 Part 2 that it's made out to be, as longer range models continue to show this will likely be a delayed season--even since July, the CFS for instance has shown the bulk of activity between mid September and late October (and increasingly active as we approach October)
It doesn't take much for a weak TS to spin up, it generally never has. My comparison to a storm in June was based upon its heavily sheared appearance, it had nothing to do with the location of the system. This simply does not look like a typical TS at the absolute climo peak of Hurricane season.
To my knowledge the last time we were this deep into Hurricane season without the development of a Major, it WAS 2013, so I'm not sure they're totally off base with the analogy. It'a tough for me to be optimistic when we're halfway through September and virtually everything that has developed and became a respectable storm has done so in the sub tropics.
I'm most certainly switched to "seeing is believing" at this point in time in regards to activity this year.
The reason 2013 is a poor analogy is the mechanics behind that were vastly different from this year, and involved extremely weak waves and a March-type mid and upper pattern--we were seeing strong 500mb lows in the deep tropics for instance (in fact one of these is what steered Humberto over colder waters and prevented it from becoming a long tracker)
This year is likely the result of Tonga's eruption and there is literally no possible analog to compare to. It could remain nothing but weak systems all year, it could pick up, so all we have to go on are the present pattern and long range models. But people are also overplaying how quiet the rest of the season will be as well--just two days ago there was talk that we wouldn't see even a tropical storm the rest of the year, at the start of September people were seriously talking as if we'd have zero hurricanes.
The problem is people got their expectations too high, and when those inevitably busted, went to the opposite end. I noted in early August from the CFS runs even, not to expect much, if anything, before September, and that the bulk of the activity would be after today. So far things have gone in accordance with that, and there's no reason for me to expect an early shutdown or some record low level of activity.
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