Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

[PavelGaborik10]

Umm...are you sure about the last sentence you said? Because there's some pretty good interest in our central Atlantic wave (it has its own thread too).

I'm not overly enthused with the area in the immediate future, and neither are models.

Something to keep tabs on, but there's absolutely no denying how quiet it is currently for peak hurricane Season.

That this was a mere 24 hours ago should show that the models are failing miserably this year and keep missing actual development.

What was? Fiona is a sheared, elongated, completely exposed mess of a TS.

I think it likely survives and it does have the potential to become a solid Hurricane down the road, but as of this moment it is what it is, an exposed mess that looks more like something you would see on June 15th as opposed to September 15th.

I'm not holding my breath on any sort of turning of the tides regarding the 2022 Atlantic Season any time soon. We'll see what happens over the next several weeks, but conditions out there are clearly extremely hostile in the tropics. Maybe things change as October nears, but the near future looks quite bleak as far as activity goes.

[Hammy]

I'm not overly enthused with the area in the immediate future, and neither are models.

Something to keep tabs on, but there's absolutely no denying how quiet it is currently for peak hurricane Season.

That this was a mere 24 hours ago should show that the models are failing miserably this year and keep missing actual development.

What was? Fiona is a sheared, elongated, completely exposed mess of a TS.

I think it likely survives and it does have the potential to become a solid Hurricane down the road, but as of this moment it is what it is, an exposed mess that looks more like something you would see on June 15th as opposed to September 15th.

I'm not holding my breath on any sort of turning of the tides regarding the 2022 Atlantic Season any time soon. We'll see what happens over the next several weeks, but conditions out there are clearly extremely hostile in the tropics. Maybe things change as October nears, but the near future looks quite bleak as far as activity goes.

48-72 hours ago the prevailing thought is we'd have nothing the rest of the month, if not the rest of the season, and talk that we'd have nothing at all during the Sep 11-15 period. And no, nothing like this would ever be seen on June 15 as we've only had two storms form in June where this is in the first place.

We're getting only short notice from the global models before storms develop, which is amplifying the quiet into being more than it is, because people are extending that storm-less state into a time frame we aren't even close to yet.

Make no mistake, this season is definitely underperforming, made worse by the fact that everybody here seems to expect a hyperactive season every year. But it's not the 2013 Part 2 that it's made out to be, as longer range models continue to show this will likely be a delayed season--even since July, the CFS for instance has shown the bulk of activity between mid September and late October (and increasingly active as we approach October)

[Ntxw]

Analogs of late busy seasons are growing thinner. 1961 and 1988 featured big multiple ace driven systems ongoing around this time. There is activity out there but not in the likes of driving ACE numbers to reach normal in the near term.

Fiona at the higher end would yield similar to Earl 15-20 units of ACE.

[toad strangler]

Analogs of late busy seasons are growing thinner. 1961 and 1988 featured big multiple ace driven systems ongoing around this time. There is activity out there but not in the likes of driving ACE numbers to reach normal in the near term.

Fiona at the higher end would yield similar to Earl 15-20 units of ACE.

meh. Analogs.

They will be much more useful a five hundred to a thousand years or so from now.

[Ntxw]

Analogs of late busy seasons are growing thinner. 1961 and 1988 featured big multiple ace driven systems ongoing around this time. There is activity out there but not in the likes of driving ACE numbers to reach normal in the near term.

Fiona at the higher end would yield similar to Earl 15-20 units of ACE.

meh. Analogs.

They will be much more useful a five hundred to a thousand years or so from now.

Sample size is important, but without analogs we'd be making little more than a wild guess.

[PavelGaborik10]

That this was a mere 24 hours ago should show that the models are failing miserably this year and keep missing actual development.

What was? Fiona is a sheared, elongated, completely exposed mess of a TS.

I think it likely survives and it does have the potential to become a solid Hurricane down the road, but as of this moment it is what it is, an exposed mess that looks more like something you would see on June 15th as opposed to September 15th.

I'm not holding my breath on any sort of turning of the tides regarding the 2022 Atlantic Season any time soon. We'll see what happens over the next several weeks, but conditions out there are clearly extremely hostile in the tropics. Maybe things change as October nears, but the near future looks quite bleak as far as activity goes.

48-72 hours ago the prevailing thought is we'd have nothing the rest of the month, if not the rest of the season, and talk that we'd have nothing at all during the Sep 11-15 period. And no, nothing like this would ever be seen on June 15 as we've only had two storms form in June where this is in the first place.

We're getting only short notice from the global models before storms develop, which is amplifying the quiet into being more than it is, because people are extending that storm-less state into a time frame we aren't even close to yet.

Make no mistake, this season is definitely underperforming, made worse by the fact that everybody here seems to expect a hyperactive season every year. But it's not the 2013 Part 2 that it's made out to be, as longer range models continue to show this will likely be a delayed season--even since July, the CFS for instance has shown the bulk of activity between mid September and late October (and increasingly active as we approach October)

It doesn't take much for a weak TS to spin up, it generally never has. My comparison to a storm in June was based upon its heavily sheared appearance, it had nothing to do with the location of the system. This simply does not look like a typical TS at the absolute climo peak of Hurricane season.

To my knowledge the last time we were this deep into Hurricane season without the development of a Major, it WAS 2013, so I'm not sure they're totally off base with the analogy.

It'a tough for me to be optimistic when we're halfway through September and virtually everything that has developed and became a respectable storm has done so in the sub tropics.

I'm most certainly switched to "seeing is believing" at this point in time in regards to activity this year.

[Hammy]

What was? Fiona is a sheared, elongated, completely exposed mess of a TS.

I think it likely survives and it does have the potential to become a solid Hurricane down the road, but as of this moment it is what it is, an exposed mess that looks more like something you would see on June 15th as opposed to September 15th.

I'm not holding my breath on any sort of turning of the tides regarding the 2022 Atlantic Season any time soon. We'll see what happens over the next several weeks, but conditions out there are clearly extremely hostile in the tropics. Maybe things change as October nears, but the near future looks quite bleak as far as activity goes.

48-72 hours ago the prevailing thought is we'd have nothing the rest of the month, if not the rest of the season, and talk that we'd have nothing at all during the Sep 11-15 period. And no, nothing like this would ever be seen on June 15 as we've only had two storms form in June where this is in the first place.

We're getting only short notice from the global models before storms develop, which is amplifying the quiet into being more than it is, because people are extending that storm-less state into a time frame we aren't even close to yet.

Make no mistake, this season is definitely underperforming, made worse by the fact that everybody here seems to expect a hyperactive season every year. But it's not the 2013 Part 2 that it's made out to be, as longer range models continue to show this will likely be a delayed season--even since July, the CFS for instance has shown the bulk of activity between mid September and late October (and increasingly active as we approach October)

It doesn't take much for a weak TS to spin up, it generally never has. My comparison to a storm in June was based upon its heavily sheared appearance, it had nothing to do with the location of the system. This simply does not look like a typical TS at the absolute climo peak of Hurricane season.

To my knowledge the last time we were this deep into Hurricane season without the development of a Major, it WAS 2013, so I'm not sure they're totally off base with the analogy.

It'a tough for me to be optimistic when we're halfway through September and virtually everything that has developed and became a respectable storm has done so in the sub tropics.

I'm most certainly switched to "seeing is believing" at this point in time in regards to activity this year.

The reason 2013 is a poor analogy is the mechanics behind that were vastly different from this year, and involved extremely weak waves and a March-type mid and upper pattern--we were seeing strong 500mb lows in the deep tropics for instance (in fact one of these is what steered Humberto over colder waters and prevented it from becoming a long tracker)

This year is likely the result of Tonga's eruption and there is literally no possible analog to compare to. It could remain nothing but weak systems all year, it could pick up, so all we have to go on are the present pattern and long range models. But people are also overplaying how quiet the rest of the season will be as well--just two days ago there was talk that we wouldn't see even a tropical storm the rest of the year, at the start of September people were seriously talking as if we'd have zero hurricanes.

The problem is people got their expectations too high, and when those inevitably busted, went to the opposite end. I noted in early August from the CFS runs even, not to expect much, if anything, before September, and that the bulk of the activity would be after today. So far things have gone in accordance with that, and there's no reason for me to expect an early shutdown or some record low level of activity.

[PavelGaborik10]

48-72 hours ago the prevailing thought is we'd have nothing the rest of the month, if not the rest of the season, and talk that we'd have nothing at all during the Sep 11-15 period. And no, nothing like this would ever be seen on June 15 as we've only had two storms form in June where this is in the first place.

We're getting only short notice from the global models before storms develop, which is amplifying the quiet into being more than it is, because people are extending that storm-less state into a time frame we aren't even close to yet.

Make no mistake, this season is definitely underperforming, made worse by the fact that everybody here seems to expect a hyperactive season every year. But it's not the 2013 Part 2 that it's made out to be, as longer range models continue to show this will likely be a delayed season--even since July, the CFS for instance has shown the bulk of activity between mid September and late October (and increasingly active as we approach October)

It doesn't take much for a weak TS to spin up, it generally never has. My comparison to a storm in June was based upon its heavily sheared appearance, it had nothing to do with the location of the system. This simply does not look like a typical TS at the absolute climo peak of Hurricane season.

To my knowledge the last time we were this deep into Hurricane season without the development of a Major, it WAS 2013, so I'm not sure they're totally off base with the analogy.

It'a tough for me to be optimistic when we're halfway through September and virtually everything that has developed and became a respectable storm has done so in the sub tropics.

I'm most certainly switched to "seeing is believing" at this point in time in regards to activity this year.

The reason 2013 is a poor analogy is the mechanics behind that were vastly different from this year, and involved extremely weak waves and a March-type mid and upper pattern--we were seeing strong 500mb lows in the deep tropics for instance (in fact one of these is what steered Humberto over colder waters and prevented it from becoming a long tracker)

This year is likely the result of Tonga's eruption and there is literally no possible analog to compare to. It could remain nothing but weak systems all year, it could pick up, so all we have to go on are the present pattern and long range models. But people are also overplaying how quiet the rest of the season will be as well--just two days ago there was talk that we wouldn't see even a tropical storm the rest of the year, at the start of September people were seriously talking as if we'd have zero hurricanes.

The problem is people got their expectations too high, and when those inevitably busted, went to the opposite end. I noted in early August from the CFS runs even, not to expect much, if anything, before September, and that the bulk of the activity would be after today. So far things have gone in accordance with that, and there's no reason for me to expect an early shutdown or some record low level of activity.

The mechanics are undeniably different, though quite honestly I haven't seen any posts in this thread comparing the pattern in 2013 to the current one, granted I have not viewed this thread in its entirety. I've seen most posters I've come across comparing this season to 2013 in regards to the lack of activity in the basin, both in terms of quality and quantity, combined with the fact that pre-season forecasts were for a relatively active Hurricane season. In recent times in those regards, 2013 is the most recent significant underperformer in comparison to professional forecasts. I can't help but feel a lot of the optimism and expectations came from the forecasts from experts, which again, were largely positive as we were entering the beginning of the Season, not unlike 2013.

I can't speak for anybody who claimed the Season would no longer see a single system the remaining of the season, in mid September. I think it's quite likely we at the very least see several more storms, though I'm not particularly sure how many actual quality storms will manage to develop in the tropics this year. The current tremendous struggles of Fiona in her current location in mid September do not leave me overly optimistic in terms of the latter.

[TheHurricaneGod]

One of the biggest surprises of this season, in my opinion, is how dead the Gulf of Mexico has been. There has not been a single TC in the Gulf yet this year! Even with a hostile MDR, I would have expected a few waves to survive and develop farther west, but that hasn't been happening. Of course, this season has been a nice break for the CONUS in terms of impacts so far, but there's no guarantee that holds true into the late season. This season is very clearly unlike 2016-21 in a lot of aspects so far.

Usually, by now, there would be at least one tropical storm or hurricane in or near the gulf of mexico. Still nothing, other than that tropical wave in early june that gave S FL a ton of rain. After consecutive active seasons, it's like the Atlantic is having hurricane withdrawal and is "coming down".

[KWT]

Analogs of late busy seasons are growing thinner. 1961 and 1988 featured big multiple ace driven systems ongoing around this time. There is activity out there but not in the likes of driving ACE numbers to reach normal in the near term.

Fiona at the higher end would yield similar to Earl 15-20 units of ACE.

In terms of ACE, a hyperactive season was already basically improbable even 2 weeks ago, an above average season in terms of ACE requires 126.1 so whilst still possible, even that is starting to look increasingly difficult at this point.

With that being said, these types of seasons often do produce a strong October Cane or two and a very active Oct-Nov period on top of what Fiona gets us to (Fiona still difficult to tell) its still too early to rule out that above average season, at least in terms of ACE, though I feel even that is getting unlikely.

Average is 96 units. This is still very much reachable IMO.

[al78]

It doesn't take much for a weak TS to spin up, it generally never has. My comparison to a storm in June was based upon its heavily sheared appearance, it had nothing to do with the location of the system. This simply does not look like a typical TS at the absolute climo peak of Hurricane season.

To my knowledge the last time we were this deep into Hurricane season without the development of a Major, it WAS 2013, so I'm not sure they're totally off base with the analogy.

It'a tough for me to be optimistic when we're halfway through September and virtually everything that has developed and became a respectable storm has done so in the sub tropics.

I'm most certainly switched to "seeing is believing" at this point in time in regards to activity this year.

The reason 2013 is a poor analogy is the mechanics behind that were vastly different from this year, and involved extremely weak waves and a March-type mid and upper pattern--we were seeing strong 500mb lows in the deep tropics for instance (in fact one of these is what steered Humberto over colder waters and prevented it from becoming a long tracker)

This year is likely the result of Tonga's eruption and there is literally no possible analog to compare to. It could remain nothing but weak systems all year, it could pick up, so all we have to go on are the present pattern and long range models. But people are also overplaying how quiet the rest of the season will be as well--just two days ago there was talk that we wouldn't see even a tropical storm the rest of the year, at the start of September people were seriously talking as if we'd have zero hurricanes.

The problem is people got their expectations too high, and when those inevitably busted, went to the opposite end. I noted in early August from the CFS runs even, not to expect much, if anything, before September, and that the bulk of the activity would be after today. So far things have gone in accordance with that, and there's no reason for me to expect an early shutdown or some record low level of activity.

The mechanics are undeniably different, though quite honestly I haven't seen any posts in this thread comparing the pattern in 2013 to the current one, granted I have not viewed this thread in its entirety. I've seen most posters I've come across comparing this season to 2013 in regards to the lack of activity in the basin, both in terms of quality and quantity, combined with the fact that pre-season forecasts were for a relatively active Hurricane season. In recent times in those regards, 2013 is the most recent significant underperformer in comparison to professional forecasts. I can't help but feel a lot of the optimism and expectations came from the forecasts from experts, which again, were largely positive as we were entering the beginning of the Season, not unlike 2013.

I can't speak for anybody who claimed the Season would no longer see a single system the remaining of the season, in mid September. I think it's quite likely we at the very least see several more storms, though I'm not particularly sure how many actual quality storms will manage to develop in the tropics this year. The current tremendous struggles of Fiona in her current location in mid September do not leave me overly optimistic in terms of the latter.

I would like to see a solid physical mechanism as to why the Tonga eruption would kill the Atlantic hurricane season yet appear to have little effect on the NE Pacific hurricane season. Did Pinatubo or Krakatoa have any impact on the following Atlantic hurricane season? I am not saying there isn't a link, but I sometimes believe that people faced with a seemingly inexplicable situation look for something happening at the same time and try hard to use one to link the other when it could be no more than coincidence. The human brain it seems cannot stand uncertainty and an explanation must be found. The NW Pacific lacklustre season can be explained by La Nina and the NE Pacific basin has overperformed in the face of La Nina, TSR for example have always predicted a well below average season since early May on this basis. If a link to the Tonga eruption can be verified, it would at least mean that hammering the pre-season Atlantic forecasts would be very unfair, since there is no way anyone can factor the effect of a volcanic eruption in advance of the season.

I think there is something else going on related to the persistent blocked northern hemisphere and stagnant Rossby waves which have brought severe drought/heatwave and flood to many parts, but I am guessing and don't have a scientific analysis to back it up.

[tolakram]

There is no definitive proof that Tonga is causing this.

Tonga was underwater and put a LOT of moisture into the atmosphere, the most ever recorded.

The wave breaking term is now getting tossed around a LOT even though it's usage was pretty rare until this year. This term overusage triggers my filter.

I think we are witnessing a rather normal season that would be mildly interesting if it wasn't so over hyped at the start of the year. There's still something odd going on, but it might take a year or more to come up with a real reason, IF there's any single reason. IMO.

[Hammy]

There is no definitive proof that Tonga is causing this.

Tonga was underwater and put a LOT of moisture into the atmosphere, the most ever recorded.

The wave breaking term is now getting tossed around a LOT even though it's usage was pretty rare until this year. This term overusage triggers my filter.

I think we are witnessing a rather normal season that would be mildly interesting if it wasn't so over hyped at the start of the year. There's still something odd going on, but it might take a year or more to come up with a real reason, IF there's any single reason. IMO.

An alternate theory going off of what Derek Ortt was talking about is the warmth in the eastern Pacific was causing Nino-esque conditions over the western basin, which seems like adequate explanation as to why we've had to rely entirely MDR/Subtropical development.

We can at least rule out the THC this year as an article was posted early in the season that it was stronger than normal this year.

[PavelGaborik10]

The reason 2013 is a poor analogy is the mechanics behind that were vastly different from this year, and involved extremely weak waves and a March-type mid and upper pattern--we were seeing strong 500mb lows in the deep tropics for instance (in fact one of these is what steered Humberto over colder waters and prevented it from becoming a long tracker)

This year is likely the result of Tonga's eruption and there is literally no possible analog to compare to. It could remain nothing but weak systems all year, it could pick up, so all we have to go on are the present pattern and long range models. But people are also overplaying how quiet the rest of the season will be as well--just two days ago there was talk that we wouldn't see even a tropical storm the rest of the year, at the start of September people were seriously talking as if we'd have zero hurricanes.

The problem is people got their expectations too high, and when those inevitably busted, went to the opposite end. I noted in early August from the CFS runs even, not to expect much, if anything, before September, and that the bulk of the activity would be after today. So far things have gone in accordance with that, and there's no reason for me to expect an early shutdown or some record low level of activity.

The mechanics are undeniably different, though quite honestly I haven't seen any posts in this thread comparing the pattern in 2013 to the current one, granted I have not viewed this thread in its entirety. I've seen most posters I've come across comparing this season to 2013 in regards to the lack of activity in the basin, both in terms of quality and quantity, combined with the fact that pre-season forecasts were for a relatively active Hurricane season. In recent times in those regards, 2013 is the most recent significant underperformer in comparison to professional forecasts. I can't help but feel a lot of the optimism and expectations came from the forecasts from experts, which again, were largely positive as we were entering the beginning of the Season, not unlike 2013.

I can't speak for anybody who claimed the Season would no longer see a single system the remaining of the season, in mid September. I think it's quite likely we at the very least see several more storms, though I'm not particularly sure how many actual quality storms will manage to develop in the tropics this year. The current tremendous struggles of Fiona in her current location in mid September do not leave me overly optimistic in terms of the latter.

I would like to see a solid physical mechanism as to why the Tonga eruption would kill the Atlantic hurricane season yet appear to have little effect on the NE Pacific hurricane season. Did Pinatubo or Krakatoa have any impact on the following Atlantic hurricane season? I am not saying there isn't a link, but I sometimes believe that people faced with a seemingly inexplicable situation look for something happening at the same time and try hard to use one to link the other when it could be no more than coincidence. The human brain it seems cannot stand uncertainty and an explanation must be found. The NW Pacific lacklustre season can be explained by La Nina and the NE Pacific basin has overperformed in the face of La Nina, TSR for example have always predicted a well below average season since early May on this basis. If a link to the Tonga eruption can be verified, it would at least mean that hammering the pre-season Atlantic forecasts would be very unfair, since there is no way anyone can factor the effect of a volcanic eruption in advance of the season.

I think there is something else going on related to the persistent blocked northern hemisphere and stagnant Rossby waves which have brought severe drought/heatwave and flood to many parts, but I am guessing and don't have a scientific analysis to back it up.

It's highly speculatice, It's going to take a tremendous amount of uncovering to conclude how much, if any impact the eruption had on the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

It's really not worth getting into more than that at present time, it's simply a theory, to label it the sole "likely" reason for 2022 significantly underperforming thus far is quite the stretch at this present time.

[AxaltaRacing24]

There is no definitive proof that Tonga is causing this.

Tonga was underwater and put a LOT of moisture into the atmosphere, the most ever recorded.

The wave breaking term is now getting tossed around a LOT even though it's usage was pretty rare until this year. This term overusage triggers my filter.

I think we are witnessing a rather normal season that would be mildly interesting if it wasn't so over hyped at the start of the year. There's still something odd going on, but it might take a year or more to come up with a real reason, IF there's any single reason. IMO.

An alternate theory going off of what Derek Ortt was talking about is the warmth in the eastern Pacific was causing Nino-esque conditions over the western basin, which seems like adequate explanation as to why we've had to rely entirely MDR/Subtropical development.

We can at least rule out the THC this year as an article was posted early in the season that it was stronger than normal this year.

I was wondering that since June tbh. I feel that this is 2004 in reverse with the ESNO temps.

[Meteophile]

As always, sorry for my probably not so good english.

And as always, i'm not a meteorologist at all so this text may be full of bs.

I have been thinking about the subtropical ssts since June. They seem to be among the highest every recorded. Wpac and Natl have this point in common, and i read it can strongly inhibit the season's activity. I don't know why (cool subtropics are favorable to an anticyclone that give the storms westward winds on the necessary altitudes, which would mean less shear and the "classic" westward movement maybe ?).
But If it's the case, even If the subtropics are warmer than they should, they will cool down as we approach and pass the equinox, so maybe the conditions are mid-august-like (or even early-august-like ?) in mid september and will be the most favourable in mid October. And is the risk of a bigger altitude temp gradient getting higher as we go through the end of summer and fall ?


Edit : btw the wpac seems to be kind of acting this way (see the last few storms, particularly nanmadol).

[REDHurricane]

As always, sorry for my probably not so good english.

And as always, i'm not a meteorologist at all so this text may be full of bs.

I have been thinking about the subtropical ssts since June. They seem to be among the highest every recorded. Wpac and Natl have this point in common, and i read it can strongly inhibit the season's activity. I don't know why (cool subtropics are favorable to an anticyclone that give the storms westward winds on the necessary altitudes, which would mean less shear and the "classic" westward movement maybe ?).
But If it's the case, even If the subtropics are warmer than they should, they will cool down as we approach and pass the equinox, so maybe the conditions are mid-august-like (or even early-august-like ?) in mid september and will be the most favourable in mid October. And is the risk of a bigger altitude temp gradient getting higher as we go through the end of summer and fall ?


Edit : btw the wpac seems to be kind of acting this way (see the last few storms, particularly nanmadol).

Agreed, great observation -- it's almost like the hurricane season for the entire Earth has been running about a month behind, and to my (extremely) amateur understanding it makes sense that the anomalously warm subtropics could be a significant reason why. What are the things we're seeing that are making this season so strange that we've essentially never seen in any previous hurricane seasons? I immediately think of 1) the Tonga eruption and 2) record-high subtropical SSTs throughout the entire northern hemisphere. These, combined with the unusual strong third-year La Niña conditions and the long-range CFS model consistently predicting a backloaded season from the start, make me guess that Atlantic TC formation could extend through October and possibly even well into November. It's difficult to tell which is the cause and which is the effect here, and I'll leave that for the scientists to figure out after this season is over, but as far as the rest of this season goes I think a lot of people might be surprised with the amount of activity the Atlantic produces in the next few months; all signs seem to be pointing to a delayed, not dead, 2022 hurricane season as of right now.

[Also, your English is basically perfect, no need for the disclaimer ]

[Hurricaneman]

The eastern end of ENSO 1 have been above to well above normal which will cause shear in the Atlantic, even though we have overall below normal In the ENSO like 1983 lite but also a record warm subtropical Atlantic which causes shear and stability in the MDR

But as of recent the positive anomalies in the ENSO 1 have all but changed to cooler so we may be seeing the benefits from that in the Atlantic right now through Especially October when I expect the western Caribbean to spit out tropical cyclones as I feel that’s where the most favorable area will be

[Hammy]

One thing that's interesting this year is what's highlighting the inactivity more than anything is we're lacking the weak, short lived 'slop storms' ever since early July. We had a couple of strong waves in July, at least three almost-systems in August, and 2-3 already in September--all storms that would've ended up weaker systems had they developed, but never did.

While we'd still be below normal ACE-wise I wonder how the discussion would be different if we were at 12/3/0 rather than 6/3/0

[Iceresistance]

Fiona bump!