Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#221 Postby Steve » Sat Oct 29, 2022 12:54 pm

tolakram wrote:Moved a bunch of posts from indicators into this thread. Some of this discussion is good so hopefully you aren't offended if I moved your post, but I want to keep indicators to INDICATORS. Thanks.


Finally getting a little taste of tropics this afternoon with a line off that Southern Plains low presumably with energy from the recent EPAC system.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24

Rotating in lines working like a warm front. Squally and moderate steady rain.

https://radar.weather.gov/station/KLIX/standard

Slow start? Maybe middle of the season. But better late than never and certainly better than more destruction for New Orleans.I’ll take gusting to 20 any day.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#222 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Oct 30, 2022 9:41 am

I am actually extremely curious to see how this hurricane season will impact tracker attitudes in future hurricane seasons (more specifically when it relates to "season canceling"), assuming it does. The fact that we managed to get a season that looked like toast, only to generate storms like Fiona or Ian later in September makes me wonder if this season could be that "turning point" that causes trackers to remain more patient in future seasons?
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#223 Postby CFLHurricane » Sun Oct 30, 2022 10:46 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:I am actually extremely curious to see how this hurricane season will impact tracker attitudes in future hurricane seasons…


Let’s not give humans too much credit in long term rational thinking. July through mid-August is and always will be “season cancelled” season because something exciting isn’t happening at that very moment. 2013 will remain the eternal hurricane season until a similarly bland season takes its place for a different generation.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#224 Postby Teban54 » Sun Oct 30, 2022 1:01 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:I am actually extremely curious to see how this hurricane season will impact tracker attitudes in future hurricane seasons (more specifically when it relates to "season canceling"), assuming it does. The fact that we managed to get a season that looked like toast, only to generate storms like Fiona or Ian later in September makes me wonder if this season could be that "turning point" that causes trackers to remain more patient in future seasons?

A few users here have said they won't ever cancel a season again. I'm sure there will still be season cancel posts next July and August, though.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#225 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:50 pm

Teban54 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:I am actually extremely curious to see how this hurricane season will impact tracker attitudes in future hurricane seasons (more specifically when it relates to "season canceling"), assuming it does. The fact that we managed to get a season that looked like toast, only to generate storms like Fiona or Ian later in September makes me wonder if this season could be that "turning point" that causes trackers to remain more patient in future seasons?

A few users here have said they won't ever cancel a season again. I'm sure there will still be season cancel posts next July and August, though.

It’s inevitable. The shock of this season may fade after 6+ months, and new people who didn’t go through the pre and early-season pause of 2022 will start tracking next year. I’ve certainly been taught a lesson about activity and impact. 2022 is at just half the NS count of 2021, and didn’t even have a single (official) storm in August, but has been far more impactful and deadly with a greater fraction of high-impact storms. There are three storms with at least moderate chances of retirement (Fiona, Ian, Lisa), and maybe even a fourth depending on what happens with 15L/Lisa. 2022 was an under-achiever when it came to seasonal numbers, but has been one of the more notable of the +AMO era in terms of impacts.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#226 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Nov 01, 2022 3:29 pm

Image

Pretty much sums it all up
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#227 Postby NorthieStangl » Tue Nov 01, 2022 3:59 pm

It's hilarious that November will end up with at least 2 hurricanes when August had a grand total of 0 storm.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#228 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Nov 04, 2022 6:46 pm

You know, at this point, I think it's safe to say that it was just a very slow start to the season. The fact that this season is looking to have an unusually active November? With October and November being more active than August alone? Yeah this is just a radically backloaded season lol
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#229 Postby Hurricane2022 » Fri Nov 04, 2022 8:10 pm

Well, after a very very slow start, we are seeing an extremely backloaded season, with an unusually busy end of September (with 4 systems active simultaneously in September - Fiona, Gaston, Ian and Hermine), a modestly active October (1 TD, Hurricane Julia, TS Karl and Lisa on the last day of the month) and a much more active November than August, with 2 hurricanes (Lisa & Martin) and one more TS that could turn into another hurricane near Florida.

And comparing the current season status and the initial predictions, we could also say that 2022 underperformed significantly than expected, as almost all predictions pointed to a well above average, perhaps even hyperactive 2022 (Ex. CSU forecast of 10/20/5 and 180+ ACE). But so far we barely beat 100 ACE units and we only have 13 TS.
(let's also not forget the University of Arizona forecast of 15 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 majors in June, which almost hit the numbers for the current season.)

So we come to the obvious conclusion that everyone should know: the very slow start has led to a significantly less active season than expected, despite a lot of cyclone activity after September 1st.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#230 Postby Hammy » Mon Nov 07, 2022 3:58 am

I believe this year has had the most named storms of any season to go all of August without anything
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#231 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Mon Nov 07, 2022 12:59 pm

tolakram wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
tolakram wrote:
But it's just a guess, and I don't like guesses because one can't be 'right', even though I think there are some who think they will be.


Actually those numbers are from CSU's real-time TC statistics page, you can see the average ACE for each day of the season on the plot.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic


Something not happening because the odds say it won't happen is still a guess.


Wouldn't that make just about every NHC or NOAA seasonal projection for storms a "guess", even though based on odds and stats? Of course giving themselves such a wide range (14-21, originally, 14-20 adjusted) kinda cheapens the "guess" in my own humble opinion.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#232 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Mon Nov 07, 2022 1:00 pm

Hammy wrote:I believe this year has had the most named storms of any season to go all of August without anything


Now what an ignominious honor that is, not that having a boatload of storms is any honor at all.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#233 Postby tolakram » Mon Nov 07, 2022 1:48 pm

Audrey2Katrina wrote:
tolakram wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
Actually those numbers are from CSU's real-time TC statistics page, you can see the average ACE for each day of the season on the plot.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic


Something not happening because the odds say it won't happen is still a guess.


Wouldn't that make just about every NHC or NOAA seasonal projection for storms a "guess", even though based on odds and stats? Of course giving themselves such a wide range (14-21, originally, 14-20 adjusted) kinda cheapens the "guess" in my own humble opinion.


No, because their forecasts are not guesses, they try and use long range modelling and seasonal forecasts to determine number of storms.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#234 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Mon Nov 07, 2022 2:15 pm

aspen wrote:but has been far more impactful and deadly with a greater fraction of high-impact storms. There are three storms with at least moderate chances of retirement (Fiona, Ian, Lisa), and maybe even a fourth depending on what happens with 15L/Lisa.


I don't see how you can possibly say "FAR more impact storms". Ida of '21 matches more than enough with Ian, certainly it did more $ damage, and both were quite deadly. Fiona's "impact" was mostly as an extratropical storm with winds at Cat 2 level when it hit around Nova Scotia. [THIS is inaccurate, as I have since seen it's actual heaviest impact was on poor Puerto Rico, where at least 2 billion of the 2.8 billion was done, as well as 25 of the 31 known deaths] It was Cat 1 crossing between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and not trying to trivialize anything but in terms of damage, it's approx. $2.8 billion was seen mostly in the Maritimes of Canada. I DO agree that because it will go down as the worst on record to impact Canada, it, too, will be retired--for that reason. I don't see any others. Grace was a Cat 3 at landfall ('21) but fortunately came ashore somewhat north of Vera Cruz with 125 mph winds, still killing 16 people and in a region with not as much to damage still did a half billion. The 2021 season is the third costliest on record as of this post, Fortunately Cat 4's Larry and Sam for the most part expended themselves at sea but neither was small change. 2021 had an Ace some 80 points higher than 2022 at this point and it's unlikely that 2022 will get remotely close to that figure. As far as retirement, I agree with you on Fiona and Ian, But I'm not ready to concede any such thing as Lisa never got out of Cat 1, nor did it have a huge impact... just not enough to retire it. Ida was obviously retired from 2021. Not sure if I missed something but the 4th one you mentioned was another "Lisa", or were you speaking of Martin or Nicole? Only looking for clarification.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#235 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Mon Nov 07, 2022 2:22 pm

No, because their forecasts are not guesses, they try and use long range modelling and seasonal forecasts to determine number of storms.


One could equally argue that the ACE figures cited were based on long range data accumulated for years; but that's fine, we can agree to disagree. In my estimation when you need to put forth an eight storm range as your prediction, that's a guess. My opinion. Now had it been within a range of no more than 3, I could say that was a bona-fide prediction. It seems I could predict that tonight's low will be somewhere between 30 and 80, and be fairly sure I'll get a win. Again, strictly my own perspective on things. To each his or her own.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#236 Postby Teban54 » Mon Nov 07, 2022 3:47 pm

Audrey2Katrina wrote:
aspen wrote:but has been far more impactful and deadly with a greater fraction of high-impact storms. There are three storms with at least moderate chances of retirement (Fiona, Ian, Lisa), and maybe even a fourth depending on what happens with 15L/Lisa.


I don't see how you can possibly say "FAR more impact storms". Ida of '21 matches more than enough with Ian, certainly it did more $ damage, and both were quite deadly. Fiona's "impact" was mostly as an extratropical storm with winds at Cat 2 level when it hit around Nova Scotia. It was Cat 1 crossing between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and not trying to trivialize anything but in terms of damage, it's approx. $2.8 billion was seen mostly in the Maritimes of Canada. I DO agree that because it will go down as the worst on record to impact Canada, it, too, will be retired--for that reason. I don't see any others. Grace was a Cat 3 at landfall ('21) but fortunately came ashore somewhat north of Vera Cruz with 125 mph winds, still killing 16 people and in a region with not as much to damage still did a half billion. The 2021 season is the third costliest on record as of this post, Fortunately Cat 4's Larry and Sam for the most part expended themselves at sea but neither was small change. 2021 had an Ace some 80 points higher than 2022 at this point and it's unlikely that 2022 will get remotely close to that figure. As far as retirement, I agree with you on Fiona and Ian, But I'm not ready to concede any such thing as Lisa never got out of Cat 1, nor did it have a huge impact... just not enough to retire it. Ida was obviously retired from 2021. Not sure if I missed something but the 4th one you mentioned was another "Lisa", or were you speaking of Martin or Nicole? Only looking for clarification.

I believe aspen meant Fiona, Ian and Julia, not Lisa. Julia has a very high death toll despite "only" being a Cat 1.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#237 Postby Hammy » Mon Nov 07, 2022 3:53 pm

Audrey2Katrina wrote: It was Cat 1 crossing between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and not trying to trivialize anything but in terms of damage, it's approx. $2.8 billion was seen mostly in the Maritimes of Canada.


Puerto Rico's damage has not been tallied and none of it is included in that yet--so the final damage total will likely be quite a bit higher than this
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#238 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Mon Nov 07, 2022 5:36 pm

Hammy wrote:
Audrey2Katrina wrote: It was Cat 1 crossing between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and not trying to trivialize anything but in terms of damage, it's approx. $2.8 billion was seen mostly in the Maritimes of Canada.


Puerto Rico's damage has not been tallied and none of it is included in that yet--so the final damage total will likely be quite a bit higher than this


This is true, although even reports from Puerto Rico say that the damages from Cat 1 Fiona are largely due to as yet unrecovered areas from the horrendous damages done by Maria in 2017. Current figures given by the PR govt. state $2 billion in damages, 25 deaths, (citing San Juan NewsWep [EFE] dated Oct.1), so apparently it did more damage as a 1 in Puerto Rico than as a 2 when it reached Canada. I still do feel it will be retired.
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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#239 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Mon Nov 07, 2022 5:42 pm

I believe aspen meant Fiona, Ian and Julia, not Lisa. Julia has a very high death toll despite "only" being a Cat 1.


Thank you for that clarification, Teban54, and that's highly probable, but with 91 dead and 50+ of those in Venezuela, as well as so many places not reporting their damage, I suppose it's possible, but at this point I'd say unlikely to be retired. Whether retired or not any storm that takes any life, is a storm that loved ones will like to see retired. I know this first hand.

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Re: Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

#240 Postby NorthieStangl » Thu Nov 10, 2022 5:40 am

Three hurricanes in November. Imagine that!
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