Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

[tolakram]

While I wouldn't call this a dead season, I think we will know based on what happens during the next 3 weeks..... I still think 2 to 3 more storms will form in the month of September and then 1 in October before the season winds down.... One thing nice about a super slow se3ason is that it saved me subscribing to Fubo during the summer since I usually do that to get the weather channel(since I love the live coverage).....

Well, some are saying that Danielle could generate enough ACE to bring it to near normal for the season. So it's either based on number of storms or ACE. I personally think dead season based on a lack of named systems, I don't personally use ACE.

Yea, I'm not one who bases whether it's active on just "ace" alone... I base is on numbers.... Since the NHC uses numbers in their predictions to determine if it's active or not, so do I............ Using ace to determine if a season is active or not, never made much sense to me.........

So do you count satellite shorties? In the end ACE is the least worst metric in my opinion. We tried to come up with a better equation in a thread last year but nothing is perfect. Storm has to last so long? Storm has to get to a certain strength? etc.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, some are saying that Danielle could generate enough ACE to bring it to near normal for the season. So it's either based on number of storms or ACE. I personally think dead season based on a lack of named systems, I don't personally use ACE.

Yea, I'm not one who bases whether it's active on just "ace" alone... I base is on numbers.... Since the NHC uses numbers in their predictions to determine if it's active or not, so do I............ Using ace to determine if a season is active or not, never made much sense to me.........

So do you count satellite shorties? In the end ACE is the least worst metric in my opinion. We tried to come up with a better equation in a thread last year but nothing is perfect. Storm has to last so long? Storm has to get to a certain strength? etc.

You bring up good points.......I think I tend to just go by numbers since it's so cut and dry and easier for me to wrap my head around. I a storm should still be counted even if it doesn't get to a certain strength............I was talking to a friend of mine who's a meteorologist in the midwest, but loves following the tropics, and is much better at his predictions it than I am, and he's been even scratching his head at this season so far., not sure what to make of it.........

[aspen]

Well, some are saying that Danielle could generate enough ACE to bring it to near normal for the season. So it's either based on number of storms or ACE. I personally think dead season based on a lack of named systems, I don't personally use ACE.

Yea, I'm not one who bases whether it's active on just "ace" alone... I base is on numbers.... Since the NHC uses numbers in their predictions to determine if it's active or not, so do I............ Using ace to determine if a season is active or not, never made much sense to me.........

So do you count satellite shorties? In the end ACE is the least worst metric in my opinion. We tried to come up with a better equation in a thread last year but nothing is perfect. Storm has to last so long? Storm has to get to a certain strength? etc.

I made a formula a few years ago that uses a TC’s max winds and minimum pressure to give a “strength” number. Sort of like an instantaneous version of ACE. The Atlantic average from 1977-2016 is 386.3 units a year; right now we’re at 25.5 and the EPac is at 300.8. This same time frame averages at 101.6 ACE and 12.2/6.4/2.6. The plus side of this formula is that it uses both wind and pressure, while ACE only uses one. The downside is that it doesn’t take into account how long a storm lasts. However, it can still correlate with ACE — 2005 has a 37% higher “intensity” than 2020 (1300 units vs 946 units) and a 39% higher ACE (250 vs 180).

Back on topic, I do think this season will underperform from a pre and early-season forecasting standpoint. We’ll probably finish with just 10-14 NS, a far cry from the 17-21 NS everyone (except UA) was forecasting from May to July. But maybe with less quantity will come a little more quality. Danielle could end up as a Cat 2/3 in a few days, 91L still has a chance of being a moderate ACE hurricane if a few things go right, and some of the models are suggesting we could see a long-tracking MDR storm start to form next week. Also, the ITCZ might be in a more favorable position this year for Oct-Nov Caribbean activity than 2021. I don’t think we’ll get a crazy active September-October with 5-8 storms per month, but more of a slow burn peak with some surprise quality storms like Danielle.

[Hammy]

Well, some are saying that Danielle could generate enough ACE to bring it to near normal for the season. So it's either based on number of storms or ACE. I personally think dead season based on a lack of named systems, I don't personally use ACE.

Yea, I'm not one who bases whether it's active on just "ace" alone... I base is on numbers.... Since the NHC uses numbers in their predictions to determine if it's active or not, so do I............ Using ace to determine if a season is active or not, never made much sense to me.........

So do you count satellite shorties? In the end ACE is the least worst metric in my opinion. We tried to come up with a better equation in a thread last year but nothing is perfect. Storm has to last so long? Storm has to get to a certain strength? etc.

I have a simpler one I use (mostly for the sake of comparison with past seasons/benchmarks etc) but I take the number of storms, add hurricanes(x2), major hurricanes (x3) and Cat 5s (x4)

So, 1988 for instance which was 12/6/3/1 (I consider Keith was likely a hurricane briefly) would come to 37. 2013 (14/2/0) would come to 18, 1998 (14/10/3/1) would be 47, etc. It's simple and has it's flaws bit it's a nice quick reference scale especially comparing where one storm is to another at a given time.

For the time being we're right on schedule with 1988, and will be through at least the 5th depending on what happens with 91L--thanks to Danielle both years will be at 7 (5/1/0) by that point and we'd be ahead of 2001 which had no hurricanes until the 10th or 11th

[SoupBone]

Well, some are saying that Danielle could generate enough ACE to bring it to near normal for the season. So it's either based on number of storms or ACE. I personally think dead season based on a lack of named systems, I don't personally use ACE.

Yea, I'm not one who bases whether it's active on just "ace" alone... I base is on numbers.... Since the NHC uses numbers in their predictions to determine if it's active or not, so do I............ Using ace to determine if a season is active or not, never made much sense to me.........

So do you count satellite shorties? In the end ACE is the least worst metric in my opinion. We tried to come up with a better equation in a thread last year but nothing is perfect. Storm has to last so long? Storm has to get to a certain strength? etc.

This is interesting. There is likely a risk assessment matrix out there that takes into account storm severity (Saffir-Simpson), storm duration, potential damage impact, etc. that could be tailored to fit into a much better active/dead post-season analysis. I know a third-party weather service that has a hurricane severity index that would also be very useful. ACE could be one of many pieces of it too, just not the sole determiner.

[al78]

While I wouldn't call this a dead season, I think we will know based on what happens during the next 3 weeks..... I still think 2 to 3 more storms will form in the month of September and then 1 in October before the season winds down.... One thing nice about a super slow se3ason is that it saved me subscribing to Fubo during the summer since I usually do that to get the weather channel(since I love the live coverage).....

Well, some are saying that Danielle could generate enough ACE to bring it to near normal for the season. So it's either based on number of storms or ACE. I personally think dead season based on a lack of named systems, I don't personally use ACE.

Yea, I'm not one who bases whether it's active on just "ace" alone... I base is on numbers.... Since the NHC uses numbers in their predictions to determine if it's active or not, so do I............ Using ace to determine if a season is active or not, never made much sense to me.........

I think using ACE alongside numbers is a better indicator of activity than numbers alone. There is a world of difference between a storm which reaches 65 kts two days after formation for one advisory then gets sheared apart and a hurricane which peaks at 95 kts but is a hurricane for 10 days. The first is a storm which forms in very marginal conditions, the second forms is indicative of a much more favourable environment. There is also an upward trend in storm numbers which is primarily caused by short lived events being better detected with improvements in technology over the years which do not contribute much to ACE, which complicates using storm numbers as a metric for activity (what is climatology when there is a long term trend?), and it is arguable that a season with 18 storms of which eight lasted less than two days at tropical storm intensity is no more active than a season with 14 storms where nearly all of them lasted several days to a week or longer.

[CyclonicFury]

Not sure how much I trust this but the ECMWF is showing well above average activity in the second half of September. If it comes even close to verifying, it would suggest a backloaded season more than a quiet one.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1565444880637128704

[aspen]

Not sure how much I trust this but the ECMWF is showing well above average activity in the second half of September. If it comes even close to verifying, it would suggest a backloaded season more than a quiet one.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1565444880637128704

We got below-average activity when the Euro weeklies were forecasting near-average (and sometimes slightly below average) activity, so I think it’s safe to assume we could still see a late season uptick compared to the rest of the season, but not as active as the Euro is saying.

[boca]

I think this season is going to make 2013 look really good . Stick a fork in this season because the models show nothing after 91L.

[toad strangler]

The more this goes on the more I worry about October.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think this season is going to make 2013 look really good . Stick a fork in this season because the models show nothing after 91L.

And I think Danielle is going to make 2013 look bad

[skyline385]

He makes a good point, Danielle is not really indicative of the problems with this season. 91L however is and it looks like it’s not going to end well, models have been pushing back on it’s development daily with some in even in the dissipation category.

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1565703225726173186





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[KWT]

Danielle is finally adding to the ACE, and we will stay ahead of 1988 for now, though 88 did chuck out multiple systems so much will depend on 91l as to whether 2022 can keep pace beyond next week.

A hyperactive season is probably sailing away now and will require something pretty exceptional for it to come back into play, though in a reasonably strong La Nina with warm SSTs overall, I'm still hesitant to call it 100% off still. 1961 did have a slow start apart from Anna, however Betsy was getting going and was similar in strength to Danielle atm, plus was about to spawn Carla and Debbie very soon as well.

An above average season is still very possible, though it will require a strongly active burst at some point in Sept/Oct and probably at least one or two decent long tracked deep latitude storms from this point.

[Hammy]

He makes a good point, Danielle is not really indicative of the problems with this season. 91L however is and it looks like it’s not going to end well, models have been pushing back on it’s development daily with some in even in the dissipation category.

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1565703225726173186?s=21&t=OW1RM3s1IkuY2wxu7KhGJw


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I think he's on to something with the Pacific too, this seems like a more likely explanation for shear, coupled with whatever's going on with the WAM.

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1565743677011640321

[NotSparta]

He makes a good point, Danielle is not really indicative of the problems with this season. 91L however is and it looks like it’s not going to end well, models have been pushing back on it’s development daily with some in even in the dissipation category.

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1565703225726173186?s=21&t=OW1RM3s1IkuY2wxu7KhGJw


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I think he's on to something with the Pacific too, this seems like a more likely explanation for shear, coupled with whatever's going on with the WAM.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1565743677011640321/photo/1

Just because the entire region isn't freezing cold doesn't mean it's El Nino. Nino 1+2 is still in Nina range

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

He makes a good point, Danielle is not really indicative of the problems with this season. 91L however is and it looks like it’s not going to end well, models have been pushing back on it’s development daily with some in even in the dissipation category.

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1565703225726173186?s=21&t=OW1RM3s1IkuY2wxu7KhGJw


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I think he's on to something with the Pacific too, this seems like a more likely explanation for shear, coupled with whatever's going on with the WAM.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1565743677011640321/photo/1

Just because the entire region isn't freezing cold doesn't mean it's El Nino. Nino 1+2 is still in Nina range

I feel like what Ortt is pointing out is something that is coincidentally there in a season where the Atlantic has mostly struggled to get going. It's not like the EPac has been consistently pumping out majors either, and we have pretty decent proof through studies of ENSO telecommunications that the equatorial water temps near Central America (especially further east of Nino 1+2) matter much less compared to the areas further west with respect to tropical cyclone activity. Not to mention that the basin has struggled in the MDR/tropics in areas that aren't nearly as tied to EPac activity.

Until I see further evidence, I can't get behind Ortt's theory of "EPac Nino" being partially responsible for a less-than-active North Atlantic so far. Easier explanations exist that have been proven to be detrimental towards TCG in the tropics. Focusing on the SSTs at this part of the Pacific when steering patterns, cutoff lows, absurd subtropical warmth, stretching of the Hadley Cell, and other factors that are present in some form to counteract the warmth in the MDR, La Nina background state, and relatively favorable subseasonal forcing/active WAM seems a bit silly to me.

He could be right of course, but just like the people saying that the Atlantic is 2013-lite, I feel like they're reaching for an explanation or link that we don't really have much proof of.

[Category5Kaiju]

I have a question: is the wave-breaking we're seeing now like at record-levels? As in, if you compared it with the past 100 years or so, it would rank among the highest or most severe wave-breaking?

[CyclonicFury]

I think 2013 is an overused comparison as I have stated before. Even if the CV season turns out to be a total bust, who's to say October won't be significantly more active than 2013? CanSIPS still shows a very favorable October FWIW. La Niña years usually have some October hurricane activity in the Caribbean or GoM (with last year being a notable exception). 2013 was a cool neutral rather than a true Niña.

[Hammy]

He makes a good point, Danielle is not really indicative of the problems with this season. 91L however is and it looks like it’s not going to end well, models have been pushing back on it’s development daily with some in even in the dissipation category.

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1565703225726173186?s=21&t=OW1RM3s1IkuY2wxu7KhGJw


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I think he's on to something with the Pacific too, this seems like a more likely explanation for shear, coupled with whatever's going on with the WAM.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1565743677011640321/photo/1

Just because the entire region isn't freezing cold doesn't mean it's El Nino. Nino 1+2 is still in Nina range

Nino 3.4 determines El Nino/La Nina, not 1+2. And a west based Nina can likely cause more hostile than typical Nina conditions over the western basin, same as a western and southern based Nino can still allow an active season.

It's likely a piece of the puzzle for this season, along with the anomalous WAM

[canes92]

Oh it's gon be a slow one.