2022 TCRs

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cycloneye
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Re: 2022 TCR's

#41 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:33 am

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Re: 2022 TCR's: Hurricane Lisa is up

#42 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 14, 2023 3:24 pm

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Re: 2022 TCR's: Hurricane Nicole is up

#43 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 17, 2023 9:49 am

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Re: 2022 TCR's: Hurricane Nicole / Tropical Storm Gaston are up

#44 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 17, 2023 11:17 am

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Re: 2022 TCR's: Hurricane Nicole / Tropical Storm Gaston are up

#45 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Mar 17, 2023 2:30 pm

The only basis on the landfall intensity for Nicole was radar data and it was offshore. It appears it may have weakened slightly as it was coming in - I wonder if 60 kt was a better estimate there?
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Re: 2022 TCR's

#46 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Mar 20, 2023 3:11 pm

Bonnie has been released for both the Atlantic and the Pacific. Intensity at Atlantic landfall slightly stronger at 50 kts. This just leaves Kay in the Pacific and Earl, Fiona, and Ian for the Atlantic.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL022 ... Bonnie.pdf
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Re: 2022 TCR's

#47 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Mar 21, 2023 3:03 pm

Earl is now out. New peak intensity of 95 kt.

I'd have gone with 100 kt based on the objective data, out of respect of the ADT and the fact it was still over fairly warm water. That would support a pressure of about 942 mb.
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Re: 2022 TCR's

#48 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Mar 21, 2023 3:16 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Earl is now out. New peak intensity of 95 kt.

I'd have gone with 100 kt based on the objective data, out of respect of the ADT and the fact it was still over fairly warm water. That would support a pressure of about 942 mb.


Earl 2022 (110/948) joins Alex 2010 (110/946) as among the most intense Atlantic hurricanes that peaked at Cat 2 strength, especially with their sub-950 mbar pressures. Both really just missed Cat 3 status by a hair.
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Re: 2022 TCR's

#49 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Mar 21, 2023 3:20 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Earl is now out. New peak intensity of 95 kt.

I'd have gone with 100 kt based on the objective data, out of respect of the ADT and the fact it was still over fairly warm water. That would support a pressure of about 942 mb.


Earl 2022 (110/948) joins Alex 2010 (110/946) as among the most intense Atlantic hurricanes that peaked at Cat 2 strength, especially with their sub-950 mbar pressures. Both really just missed Cat 3 status by a hair.


The only other one I know in that range is Ginny (946 mb I believe).
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Re: 2022 TCR's: Hurricane Earl is up

#50 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 21, 2023 3:33 pm

Read the Hurricane Earl report here. Only Fiona and Ian are left for the North Atlantic and Kay for the Eastern Pacific.
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Re: 2022 TCR's: Hurricane Fiona is up

#51 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 23, 2023 9:46 am

Hurricane Fiona is up. One of the most anticipated reports is out. CrazyC83 what is your take?

Image

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Re: 2022 TCR's

#52 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Fri Mar 24, 2023 4:04 pm

I know the CHC had Fiona landfalling at 90 KTS in Nova Scotia PT, so it's interesting to see the NHC go with 85.

Personally considering the Sting jet reading a few hours before landfall and the fact that the winds were noticeably stronger than Juan(85 KTS) I'm a bit surprised they went with 85, I was anticipating 90, minimum.

There was also a 930 MB reading on land that missed the "center" of the low on Cape Breton Island.
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Re: 2022 TCR's

#53 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sat Mar 25, 2023 4:06 am

PavelGaborik10 wrote:I know the CHC had Fiona landfalling at 90 KTS in Nova Scotia PT, so it's interesting to see the NHC go with 85.

Personally considering the Sting jet reading a few hours before landfall and the fact that the winds were noticeably stronger than Juan(85 KTS) I'm a bit surprised they went with 85, I was anticipating 90, minimum.

There was also a 930 MB reading on land that missed the "center" of the low on Cape Breton Island.

Guess we'll just have to wait until like the 2070s for when they reach 2023 in reanalysis :lol:
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Re: 2022 TCR's: Hurricane Nicole / Tropical Storm Gaston are up

#54 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sat Mar 25, 2023 10:49 am

CrazyC83 wrote:The only basis on the landfall intensity for Nicole was radar data and it was offshore. It appears it may have weakened slightly as it was coming in - I wonder if 60 kt was a better estimate there?


A WeatherStem station in Daytona Beach, FSWN, had a sustained wind of 62 kt right before it went offline, presumably due to the high winds there. Could make a case that this station observation combined with potential undersampling effects would support pockets of 64 kt right by the beaches.

I didn't see this station listed in the TCR, so I reached out to Jack Beven to get his thoughts on this wind observation.
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Re: 2022 TCR's

#55 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:59 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:I know the CHC had Fiona landfalling at 90 KTS in Nova Scotia PT, so it's interesting to see the NHC go with 85.

Personally considering the Sting jet reading a few hours before landfall and the fact that the winds were noticeably stronger than Juan(85 KTS) I'm a bit surprised they went with 85, I was anticipating 90, minimum.

There was also a 930 MB reading on land that missed the "center" of the low on Cape Breton Island.


That 930 may have been faulty or not representative. In the case of Juan, the winds were in a very small area (i.e., near and over Halifax Harbour) as it was a fully tropical, compact system, while Fiona was much, much larger. I've been incredibly busy the last few days with my Ph.D. dissertation and other work.

I think 120 kt is right for a peak (I estimated such as well) as well as the 931 mb tropical minimum pressure, but would have gone 85 kt at the landfall in the Dominican Republic and would have kept 90 kt for Nova Scotia landfall, thinking stronger winds were in place over water at the time (due to the sting jet location). As far as minimum pressure (while extratropical), I'd have estimated it at 928 mb at landfall, based on the earlier aircraft data and the wind speeds at the time of the Hart Island data (which was not the true landfall point).

I know they set 00Z as the time where it became ET, but you could argue it might have been a couple hours later (definitely before 06Z or landfall though, it was a quick transition).
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Re: 2022 TCR's: Hurricane Ian is up

#56 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 03, 2023 8:17 am

The biggie is here. Only Kay is left.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1642876272186408960


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Re: 2022 TCR's: Hurricane Ian is up

#57 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Apr 03, 2023 8:24 am



Gosh darn, so it really did reach Cat 5 status (even briefly)! :eek: :eek:

A well-warranted upgrade!
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Re: 2022 TCR's: Hurricane Ian is up

#58 Postby MarioProtVI » Mon Apr 03, 2023 8:40 am

Wow. They really did have the balls to upgrade Ian after all that. Holy poop. Well, guess we have our first legit C5 in 3 years!
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Re: 2022 TCR's: Hurricane Ian is up (Upgraded to Cat 5)

#59 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 03, 2023 8:46 am

Here are their words about the upgrade to cat 5.

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Re: 2022 TCR's: Hurricane Ian is up (Upgraded to Cat 5)

#60 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Apr 03, 2023 8:50 am

$113B good Lord
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