Tropical Wave Near the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 95L)

[ouragans]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave is expected to emerge from the coast of Africa later day. A low pressure area could form in association with this system early in the week, and subsequent gradual development is possible thereafter.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located just off the African coast is associated
with some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An area of low
pressure could form later this week and subsequent gradual
development is possible as this system moves generally
west-northwestward over the east-central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[CFLHurricane]

Another fish.

Keep ‘em coming!

[Category5Kaiju]

I believe this is the 9/6 wave? If it forms and recurves and racks up ACE, then so be it! Bring it on!

[NotSparta]

I believe this is the 9/6 wave? If it forms and recurves and racks up ACE, then so be it! Bring it on!

I think this is the one behind it. Probably not going to be too strong or long lived because of shear from Earl but modeling shows it rather compact for 2022 and dealing with less dry air than usual. Perhaps a quick TS if anything

[Teban54]

This is likely what I call the 9/3 wave in the models thread. As of now, most models show it trying to organize in the central MDR, but few show actual development.

The 9/6 wave is the one behind, the one that CMC develops.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Limited shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with a
tropical wave located just off the west African coast. An area of
low pressure could form later this week and subsequent gradual
development is possible as this system moves generally
west-northwestward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to produce a broad area of disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. An area of low pressure is forecast to form
with this system in the next next day or so, and environmental
conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development. A
tropical depression could form by the latter part of this week as
this system moves generally west-northwestward or northwestward over
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[aspen]

Model support for this wave is almost non-existent, but then again, the models have been pretty inconsistent or conservative when it comes to development after Danielle and Earl. One of the recent ICON runs does turn this into a hurricane in the mid-latitudes.

[Teban54]

Model support for this wave is almost non-existent, but then again, the models have been pretty inconsistent or conservative when it comes to development after Danielle and Earl. One of the recent ICON runs does turn this into a hurricane in the mid-latitudes.

All models do show this trying to organize as it lifts north towards 20N, which is probably why NHC raised chances to 40%.

[aspen]

This is a pretty decent wave all things considered. It's not as broad as Earl's precursor, nor as far north as the last eastern MDR AOI. It'll also continue on more of a WNW path for several days instead of going NW immediately.


The 06z Euro looks a tad stronger at Day 4 than the 00z run.

[NotSparta]

This is a pretty decent wave all things considered. It's not as broad as Earl's precursor, nor as far north as the last eastern MDR AOI. It'll also continue on more of a WNW path for several days instead of going NW immediately.
https://i.imgur.com/2ykYeRZ.jpg

The 06z Euro looks a tad stronger at Day 4 than the 00z run.
https://i.imgur.com/FYsXmpn.png

Not dealing with rock-bottom RH either. Pretty moist all things considered especially for this year

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to produce a broad area of disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. An area of low pressure is forecast to form
with this system in the next day or so, and environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for additional development. A
tropical depression could form by the latter part of this week as
this system moves generally west-northwestward or northwestward over
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Iceresistance]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to produce a broad area of disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. An area of low pressure is forecast to form
with this system in the next day or so, and environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for additional development. A
tropical depression could form by the latter part of this week as
this system moves generally west-northwestward or northwestward over
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

20/50? That is where we may get Fiona if this develops unexpectly?

[Hammy]

I don't recall who posted but somebody pointed out trough orientation being a contributor to the dry tropics and looks like that's a factor in this developing (while the one behind doesn't)

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a
broad area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. An area
of low pressure is forecast to form with this system in the next day
or so, and environmental conditions appear generally conducive for
additional development. A tropical depression could form by the
latter part of this week as the system moves generally
west-northwestward or northwestward over the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms persist from the Cabo Verde
Islands southwestward several hundred miles in association with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are conducive
for some development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form in a few days while moving westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
Upper-level winds are likely to become less conducive for
development late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[aspen]

This is yet another large, double-lobed wave on the CIMSS’s 850mb vorticity plot. However, the NE lobe is dominant on the 700mb and 500mb vorticity plots, and seems to be the part the models are latching on to.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue near the Cabo Verde
Islands extending southwestward several hundred miles in association
with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are
conducive for some development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form in a few days while moving westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less
conducive for development late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Hammy]

There's a narrow window in which this can develop especially before Danielle and Earl become tropical, if we're going to see three storms at once--something else this would have in common with 1988 (and wasn't even operationally)