#6 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 06, 2022 11:41 am
The 12Z UKMET is the 5th run in a row to have a TC from this. The Sun 9/4 12Z run UKMET was the first major op model to have this as an actual TC and was soon followed up by others. Will the UKMET end up with kudos? Or will it fail (phantom)? We'll see later:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 10.5N 30.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2022 96 10.9N 31.7W 1010 26
0000UTC 11.09.2022 108 11.8N 35.2W 1010 28
1200UTC 11.09.2022 120 12.4N 38.2W 1009 30
0000UTC 12.09.2022 132 14.1N 40.8W 1007 35
1200UTC 12.09.2022 144 15.5N 43.8W 1006 36
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For comparison, here was that first UKMET run picking it up, the Sun 9/4 12Z run:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 9.8N 26.4W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2022 120 9.8N 26.4W 1009 26
0000UTC 10.09.2022 132 10.6N 30.4W 1009 29
1200UTC 10.09.2022 144 11.4N 34.2W 1008 33
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