Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 96L)

[cycloneye]

African Coast:
A tropical wave currently located over western Africa is forecast to
emerge offshore into the eastern Atlantic in a day or two.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for some slow
development thereafter as the system moves west-northwestward
over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[SFLcane]

Euro dives this wave wsw at the end of the run.

[aspen]

Euro dives this wave wsw at the end of the run.

https://i.postimg.cc/pX8GGTpL/A6-BD4-A6-B-9-DB6-4-D23-9-BBD-785-F0-AE789-A1.gif

About half of the 06z GEFS members have a WSW dive too, but it’s all fish this run. The previous GEFS run had multiple members reach MH intensity and directly impact the Caribbean, Bahamas, or Florida.

Also good call pointing out this wave before the models started picking it up.

[cycloneye]

[SFLcane]

CFS takes new lemon as a strengthening hurricane into SFL. It also has that wsw dive.

** Use with Caution**

[LarryWx]

The 12Z UKMET is the 5th run in a row to have a TC from this. The Sun 9/4 12Z run UKMET was the first major op model to have this as an actual TC and was soon followed up by others. Will the UKMET end up with kudos? Or will it fail (phantom)? We'll see later:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 10.5N 30.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2022 96 10.9N 31.7W 1010 26
0000UTC 11.09.2022 108 11.8N 35.2W 1010 28
1200UTC 11.09.2022 120 12.4N 38.2W 1009 30
0000UTC 12.09.2022 132 14.1N 40.8W 1007 35
1200UTC 12.09.2022 144 15.5N 43.8W 1006 36

---------------------------------------------------------------
For comparison, here was that first UKMET run picking it up, the Sun 9/4 12Z run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 9.8N 26.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2022 120 9.8N 26.4W 1009 26
0000UTC 10.09.2022 132 10.6N 30.4W 1009 29
1200UTC 10.09.2022 144 11.4N 34.2W 1008 33

[galaxy401]

This is the wave the models appear to be more keen on. Could be a long-tracker if it stays south enough early on.

[cycloneye]

African Coast:
A tropical wave currently located over western Africa is forecast to
emerge offshore into the eastern Atlantic in a day or two.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for some slow
development thereafter as the system moves west-northwestward over
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[SFLcane]

One to watch...

[LarryWx]

One to watch...

https://i.postimg.cc/FshCf9jw/ecm.gif

The 12Z GFS and CMC at 240 are in the same general vicinity as the 12Z Euro though with only weak surface reflections. Indeed, something to watch for possibly the E Caribbean in ~10 days and potentially other areas later.

[gatorcane]

The GFS and the CMC are not particularly enthusiastic. In fact since the 00Z GFS, the last two runs basically drop this system. That said, the wave looks good and is exiting more south so bears watching.

[PTrackerLA]

That's 2 runs of the Euro with a dangerous look for days 7-10. 12z Canadian also has a very similar look to the Euro at day 10.

[SFLcane]

[LarryWx]

https://i.postimg.cc/028Z5Pmj/eps.gif

What's worrisome is not only that it is very active with this AEW, but that a good number of members after moving WNW change headings to W near 45W (similar to the operational) ~9/13 and then head W with the accompanying steering high to the north from there through 9/16 to 55-60W in a potentially dangerous position as your animation suggests.

[AutoPenalti]

12z EPS Control:

https://imgur.com/0UBKJMJ

It looks to want to stall. Maybe a curve away here. Too close to call this far out but something to watch again.

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/028Z5Pmj/eps.gif

What's worrisome is not only that it is very active with this AEW, but that a good number of members after moving WNW change headings to W near 45W (similar to the operational) ~9/13 and then head W with the accompanying steering high to the north from there through 9/16 to 55-60W in a potentially dangerous position as your animation suggests.

Most recurve sharply towards bermuda. Curious to see if/how fast it develops first

[Teban54]

12z EPS Control:

https://imgur.com/0UBKJMJ

https://i.imgur.com/0UBKJMJ.gif

It looks to want to stall. Maybe a curve away here. Too close to call this far out but something to watch again.

So it's pre-Earl all over again?

[cycloneye]

2. African Coast:
A tropical wave currently located over western Africa is forecast to
emerge offshore into the eastern Atlantic in a day or two.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for some slow
development thereafter as the system moves west-northwestward over
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[chaser1]

https://i.postimg.cc/028Z5Pmj/eps.gif

What's worrisome is not only that it is very active with this AEW, but that a good number of members after moving WNW change headings to W near 45W (similar to the operational) ~9/13 and then head W with the accompanying steering high to the north from there through 9/16 to 55-60W in a potentially dangerous position as your animation suggests.

Hard for me to buy into a Caribbean or CONUS threat for this wave given this season's penchant for recurve tracks. Then again, 1989 does beg to differ (and Hugo didn't form until Sept. 11).

[LarryWx]

https://i.postimg.cc/028Z5Pmj/eps.gif

What's worrisome is not only that it is very active with this AEW, but that a good number of members after moving WNW change headings to W near 45W (similar to the operational) ~9/13 and then head W with the accompanying steering high to the north from there through 9/16 to 55-60W in a potentially dangerous position as your animation suggests.

Hard for me to buy into a Caribbean or CONUS threat for this wave given this season's penchant for recurve tracks. Then again, 1989 does beg to differ (and Hugo didn't form until Sept. 11).

Hopefully you're right!

Meanwhile, it appears that the wave may be coming off as I type this. I see something near 13W and it looks rather impressive. Any opinions?