Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 96L)

[Iceresistance]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/sX2gLhHr/AE4-C416-B-055-A-460-F-B4-C6-917534-C7-BAFC.gif

It has a slight WSW curve.

Just a few days ago, we thought that this season was done and threw in the towel. And now look at this!

[NDG]

Another look at the 18z Euro.

[Steve]

Icon has the islands threat end of 18z run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91218&fh=6

EC had that South Florida threat end of 12z run. CMC has something right off SE FL as well. Everything looks relatively weak in the ocean but I’m sure that system is being discussed in its appropriate thread.

[tolakram]

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1569486257188753408?s=46&t=aXu-bX06L0E3i0y2FnRslw

2020: Recurving typhoon becomes our friend
2022: Recurving typhoon becomes....our enemy?

[cycloneye]

Icon has the islands threat end of 18z run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91218&fh=6

EC had that South Florida threat end of 12z run. CMC has something right off SE FL as well. Everything looks relatively weak in the ocean but I’m sure that system is being discussed in its appropriate thread.

Hi my friend. To let you know that moved your post from the global models discussion thread to the wave one.

[NDG]

18z Euro Ensembles.

[SFLcane]

[Tropics Guy]

Central wave Looking better tonight, development chances will probably go up to orange from lemon soon if the convection continues.

[emeraldislenc]

Looking much better tonight. Will be interesting to see if it is an orange at 2 am.

[sma10]

18z Euro Ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/OZv7hqV.png
https://i.imgur.com/9a1lIDx.png

18z EPS quite different than 12z.

Many more members with development, with a more clustered (rather than scattershot) look

[crownweather]

It would be very 2022 if all of the 00Z & 06Z models dropped the development of this wave.

[Fego]

It would be very 2022 if all of the 00Z & 06Z models dropped the development of this wave.

ICON says not me.

[PTrackerLA]

It would be very 2022 if all of the 00Z & 06Z models dropped the development of this wave.

Likewise I think it would be very 2022 if Fiona became "the threat" of the season after initially being dropped by all models post spalshdown. That's the weird part of this season and current date, anything could still happen the next 6 weeks.

[Category5Kaiju]

Is it just me or does the ICON have this system just plow through a ridge?

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1569534209773142017

[Hammy]

Worth noting for anyone turning to the GFS for wisdom, it has not been handling anything well as of late. 90h ago it had little to nothing in terms of even wave activity.

[skyline385]

Worth noting for anyone turning to the GFS for wisdom, it has not been handling anything well as of late. 90h ago it had little to nothing in terms of even wave activity.

https://i.imgur.com/cP9ZXFX.png
https://i.imgur.com/qOX8AxE.png

To be fair, both Euro and GFS had nothing on it 90 hours ago, look at the vorticity plots.

Also keep in mind that the GFS was the first to correctly predict Earl's recurve without any weird stalling and kept it weak until it was around 55W, which is pretty much what happened.

[AutoPenalti]

Not sure what the ICON is doing but this recurved sharply away as a Cat 3

[skyline385]

Not sure what the ICON is doing but this recurved sharply away as a Cat 3

ICON has been showing a Cat 1-3 in the tropics for almost each of its run. Whatever is causing the issues for this season, ICON seems to be the most affected by it. I am pretty sure its going to end up last on intensity verification for 2022 amongst the global models