Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 96L)

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skyline385
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave

#241 Postby skyline385 » Tue Sep 13, 2022 6:17 am

6Z GFS run is very questionable if you look at 850mb vorticity. It pushes the wave initially into the Caribbean then a front yanks it out through Cuba but because of the ridge building in, it gets detached from the front near the keys after which it enters the Gulf.

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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave

#242 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Sep 13, 2022 6:18 am

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/ykHvENP.gif
06z GFS goes major into GOM... :eek:


Goes from nothing to cat 3 right over the Keys too 1935 style. Pretty darn sure this won't happen.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave

#243 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 13, 2022 6:30 am

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Conventional and Low-earth orbit satellite data indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands have increased and become better organized since yesterday
afternoon. Further development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form over the next several days while it generally moves westward to west-northwestward over the central tropical Atlantic and approaches the Leeward Islands on Friday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave

#244 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 13, 2022 6:36 am

Should see an invest sometime today.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave

#245 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 13, 2022 6:41 am

Image
Katrina 2.0?
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave

#246 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 13, 2022 6:54 am

While I don't want to stop fun GFS speculation I don't think anything the GFS has ever predicted past 240 hours has ever come true in all the years I've been watching it. All the better models stop at 240.

The CMC doesn't develop the wave until it gets into the gulf and you can clearly track the vorticity all the way. The GFS vorticity appears out of nowhere.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave

#247 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 13, 2022 7:00 am

Pretty much it's a waiting period to see what this wave does once it reaches the Lesser Antilles. That's it for me now.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave

#248 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 13, 2022 7:04 am

tolakram wrote:While I don't want to stop fun GFS speculation I don't think anything the GFS has ever predicted past 240 hours has ever come true in all the years I've been watching it. All the better models stop at 240.

The CMC doesn't develop the wave until it gets into the gulf and you can clearly track the vorticity all the way. The GFS vorticity appears out of nowhere.


Gfs is nonsense essentially now getting it mixed up with its favorite CAG. :roll:
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave

#249 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue Sep 13, 2022 7:10 am

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/nDEDtZQ.gif
Katrina 2.0?

Classic spurious GFS genesis. Disregard.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave

#250 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 13, 2022 7:15 am

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/ykHvENP.gif
06z GFS goes major into GOM... :eek:


We should definitely believe the GFS after its stellar performance this year. :lol:
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave

#251 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 13, 2022 7:17 am

No invest yet but it will be up sometime today. This is the link to see it pop up in the ATCF directory and only link we allow to make a invest thread. The number will be 96L.

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/?C=M;O=D
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave

#252 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Sep 13, 2022 7:20 am

Image

You gotta wonder if all of that anomalosu warmth in the W. Atlantic could really give this system a boost down the line :double:
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave

#253 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 13, 2022 7:28 am

I’m still skeptical that this develops, but the increasing short to medium-range model support and further south track than Earl certainly warrants attention. Soon-to-be 96L might be the first direct impact to the islands this year.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave

#254 Postby skyline385 » Tue Sep 13, 2022 7:37 am

SoupBone wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/ykHvENP.gif
06z GFS goes major into GOM... :eek:


We should definitely believe the GFS after its stellar performance this year. :lol:


Not that we should believe any solution this far out, but the GFS has done pretty decently this season. It had a few Caribbean false flags but it nailed the MDR correctly including Earl's TCG and recurve. Unlike ICON and CMC, it also has not been developing every wave that comes offshore near Africa and it is going to be pretty close between GFS and Euro imo when NHC releases the 2022 verification. The Euro also has had a strong MDR bias and has busted more than a few times this season just like the GFS in the Caribbean. 06Z Euro has also started trending towards the GFS solution of running the wave into the GA.

Image

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1569661557382029317


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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 96L)

#255 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 13, 2022 7:49 am

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