Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 96L)

[jlauderdal]

12z Euro ends here with a TS.

Interesting setup down the road, current conditions are marginal at best for development, will see what happy hour resolves

[AutoPenalti]

12Z Euro 216 has a scary setup with TCG days 8-9 Bahamas and a strong high to its north:

https://i.imgur.com/7XyjgLC.png

Yes and the 240 has it right on SFL doorstep. Maybe something to watch

Knowing the models this will probably stop dead in its tracks and curve away from SFL... wouldn't that be something.

[LarryWx]

 It appears to me that regardless of the final outcome, this is likely going to be a long drawn out situation due to projected very slow movement of this AEW/weak steering currents. We could easily be dealing with this for the better part of two weeks.

[sma10]

12Z Euro 216 has a scary setup with TCG days 8-9 Bahamas and a strong high to its north:

https://i.imgur.com/7XyjgLC.png

Yes and the 240 has it right on SFL doorstep. Maybe something to watch

Knowing the models this will probably stop dead in its tracks and curve away from SFL... wouldn't that be something.

Yeah we've seen that before.
It is an interesting setup tho. CMC and Euro are almost identical. I guess something developing in that part of the world needs to be watched

[skyline385]

12Z Euro looks very similar to early Earl runs, very likely getting yanked away




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[Nimbus]

Not a bad looking TW.

https://i.imgur.com/61HkjJ2.gif

Sharpened up this afternoon and the sunset frames show increased convection focused near 14N.
So if this becomes an invest early the models that are having trouble with the Hispaniola interaction will be initialized further north. Dry air will prevent RI but may not be enough to prevent this from closing off near 15N.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z JMA is the 2nd run with a TC from this after the similarly tracking TC that was on the 12Z yesterday. Today's gives the Virgin Islands to PR 6-7" of rainfall due to slow movement of it as a strengthening TD. Here is the 192, which has a strengthening TS turning north. It is hard to tell if this would have continued much further north because there's a new upper high then starting to build along the east US coast to its north in response to a strong digging NW US trough. My guess is that this new high would have at least slowed it down and possibly turned it back NW to WNW for a period of time:

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like a recurve here. Too far ahead in time but like someone said, this looks similar to pre-Earl.

[LarryWx]

https://i.imgur.com/aB8CHQh.png

Looks like a recurve here. Too far ahead in time but like someone said, this looks similar to pre-Earl.

Climo for 9/22 for those east of the Bahamas would favor recurve and that's what they mostly do here. But there also many members on your map either within the Bahamas (some recurve and some don't; some are actually turning left) or near Cuba (no recurves).

[boca]

It seems like the all or most recurve in the Bahamas unless the high is strong enough to keep it going west.

[AutoPenalti]

It seems like the all or most recurve in the Bahamas unless the high is strong enough to keep it going west.

Hmm.. not so sure about that. Half want to bend back left at the end of the run and this is by Day 10 so it could obviously change.

[sma10]

https://i.imgur.com/aB8CHQh.png

Looks like a recurve here. Too far ahead in time but like someone said, this looks similar to pre-Earl.

There is a definite bifurcation. Maybe earlier developers find the escape hatch, while late developers, which are further SW, get caught by the ridge. Either way, purely academic at this point

[LarryWx]

https://i.imgur.com/aB8CHQh.png

Looks like a recurve here. Too far ahead in time but like someone said, this looks similar to pre-Earl.

There is a definite bifurcation. Maybe earlier developers find the escape hatch, while late developers, which are further SW, get caught by the ridge. Either way, purely academic at this point

Indeed, those which stay weak may end up being more dangerous later.

[Category5Kaiju]

For late September, the 1929 Bahamas hurricane sure had a strange path

[AtlanticWind]

I posted a couple of days ago this would be a system we would be talking a lot
about in the coming days, I think this system is poised to overperform the models .

It is coming across very warm waters at the peak of Hurricane Season with moderate to low
shear . it will have deal with some dry air but we have seen systems overcome that before.

I think the models have already are starting to catch up to the systems potential.
Not saying this is going to be a major but it is a definite one to watch.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1569375611151335426

[Blown Away]

12z Euro ends here with a TS.

https://i.imgur.com/zUyIOnW.jpg

Interesting setup down the road, current conditions are marginal at best for development, will see what happy hour resolves

That position in Sept 22, Jeanne being exception, just a bit late for a W moving system to impact FL from the E.

[jlauderdal]

12z Euro ends here with a TS.

https://i.imgur.com/zUyIOnW.jpg

Interesting setup down the road, current conditions are marginal at best for development, will see what happy hour resolves

That position in Sept 22, Jeanne being exception, just a bit late for a W moving system to impact FL from the E.

This is an odd season so beware of strange outcomes.

[AtlanticWind]

12z Euro ends here with a TS.

https://i.imgur.com/zUyIOnW.jpg

Interesting setup down the road, current conditions are marginal at best for development, will see what happy hour resolves

That position in Sept 22, Jeanne being exception, just a bit late for a W moving system to impact FL from the E.

The 1928 hurricane hit WPB on sept 17th and the 1926 hurricane hit miami on sept 18th, so this
system would only be a few days later.
These are rare events but if conditions are right I wouldnt be totally suprised to be hit by a late season
hurricane In S fla.from a west moving storm. Hoping not.

[LarryWx]

https://i.imgur.com/aB8CHQh.png

Looks like a recurve here. Too far ahead in time but like someone said, this looks similar to pre-Earl.

There is a definite bifurcation. Maybe earlier developers find the escape hatch, while late developers, which are further SW, get caught by the ridge. Either way, purely academic at this point

Going to end of 12Z EPS as regards the CONUS, it is active Sept 21-26 with 9 H landfalls: 1 on NYC, 3 on SC, 4 on FL (Cape Canaveral, Keys, Tampa, E Panhandle), and 1 on MS.

So, a US hit from the Gulf could very much be in play here, especially if there's a delay in development. I continue to have the Gulf coast of FL as the highest seasonal risk area based on 8 ENSO analogs.