Interesting setup down the road, current conditions are marginal at best for development, will see what happy hour resolvescycloneye wrote:12z Euro ends here with a TS.
Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 96L)
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
sma10 wrote:LarryWx wrote:12Z Euro 216 has a scary setup with TCG days 8-9 Bahamas and a strong high to its north:
https://i.imgur.com/7XyjgLC.png
Yes and the 240 has it right on SFL doorstep. Maybe something to watch
Knowing the models this will probably stop dead in its tracks and curve away from SFL... wouldn't that be something.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
It appears to me that regardless of the final outcome, this is likely going to be a long drawn out situation due to projected very slow movement of this AEW/weak steering currents. We could easily be dealing with this for the better part of two weeks.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
AutoPenalti wrote:sma10 wrote:LarryWx wrote:12Z Euro 216 has a scary setup with TCG days 8-9 Bahamas and a strong high to its north:
https://i.imgur.com/7XyjgLC.png
Yes and the 240 has it right on SFL doorstep. Maybe something to watch
Knowing the models this will probably stop dead in its tracks and curve away from SFL... wouldn't that be something.
Yeah we've seen that before.
It is an interesting setup tho. CMC and Euro are almost identical. I guess something developing in that part of the world needs to be watched
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- skyline385
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
12Z Euro looks very similar to early Earl runs, very likely getting yanked away
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
Sharpened up this afternoon and the sunset frames show increased convection focused near 14N.
So if this becomes an invest early the models that are having trouble with the Hispaniola interaction will be initialized further north. Dry air will prevent RI but may not be enough to prevent this from closing off near 15N.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
The 12Z JMA is the 2nd run with a TC from this after the similarly tracking TC that was on the 12Z yesterday. Today's gives the Virgin Islands to PR 6-7" of rainfall due to slow movement of it as a strengthening TD. Here is the 192, which has a strengthening TS turning north. It is hard to tell if this would have continued much further north because there's a new upper high then starting to build along the east US coast to its north in response to a strong digging NW US trough. My guess is that this new high would have at least slowed it down and possibly turned it back NW to WNW for a period of time:
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
Looks like a recurve here. Too far ahead in time but like someone said, this looks similar to pre-Earl.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
AutoPenalti wrote:https://i.imgur.com/aB8CHQh.png
Looks like a recurve here. Too far ahead in time but like someone said, this looks similar to pre-Earl.
Climo for 9/22 for those east of the Bahamas would favor recurve and that's what they mostly do here. But there also many members on your map either within the Bahamas (some recurve and some don't; some are actually turning left) or near Cuba (no recurves).
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
It seems like the all or most recurve in the Bahamas unless the high is strong enough to keep it going west.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
boca wrote:It seems like the all or most recurve in the Bahamas unless the high is strong enough to keep it going west.
Hmm.. not so sure about that. Half want to bend back left at the end of the run and this is by Day 10 so it could obviously change.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
AutoPenalti wrote:https://i.imgur.com/aB8CHQh.png
Looks like a recurve here. Too far ahead in time but like someone said, this looks similar to pre-Earl.
There is a definite bifurcation. Maybe earlier developers find the escape hatch, while late developers, which are further SW, get caught by the ridge. Either way, purely academic at this point
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
sma10 wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:https://i.imgur.com/aB8CHQh.png
Looks like a recurve here. Too far ahead in time but like someone said, this looks similar to pre-Earl.
There is a definite bifurcation. Maybe earlier developers find the escape hatch, while late developers, which are further SW, get caught by the ridge. Either way, purely academic at this point
Indeed, those which stay weak may end up being more dangerous later.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
For late September, the 1929 Bahamas hurricane sure had a strange path
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
I posted a couple of days ago this would be a system we would be talking a lot
about in the coming days, I think this system is poised to overperform the models .
It is coming across very warm waters at the peak of Hurricane Season with moderate to low
shear . it will have deal with some dry air but we have seen systems overcome that before.
I think the models have already are starting to catch up to the systems potential.
Not saying this is going to be a major but it is a definite one to watch.
about in the coming days, I think this system is poised to overperform the models .
It is coming across very warm waters at the peak of Hurricane Season with moderate to low
shear . it will have deal with some dry air but we have seen systems overcome that before.
I think the models have already are starting to catch up to the systems potential.
Not saying this is going to be a major but it is a definite one to watch.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
jlauderdal wrote:Interesting setup down the road, current conditions are marginal at best for development, will see what happy hour resolves
That position in Sept 22, Jeanne being exception, just a bit late for a W moving system to impact FL from the E.
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Re: RE: Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
This is an odd season so beware of strange outcomes.Blown Away wrote:jlauderdal wrote:Interesting setup down the road, current conditions are marginal at best for development, will see what happy hour resolves
That position in Sept 22, Jeanne being exception, just a bit late for a W moving system to impact FL from the E.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
Blown Away wrote:jlauderdal wrote:Interesting setup down the road, current conditions are marginal at best for development, will see what happy hour resolves
That position in Sept 22, Jeanne being exception, just a bit late for a W moving system to impact FL from the E.
The 1928 hurricane hit WPB on sept 17th and the 1926 hurricane hit miami on sept 18th, so this
system would only be a few days later.
These are rare events but if conditions are right I wouldnt be totally suprised to be hit by a late season
hurricane In S fla.from a west moving storm. Hoping not.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
sma10 wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:https://i.imgur.com/aB8CHQh.png
Looks like a recurve here. Too far ahead in time but like someone said, this looks similar to pre-Earl.
There is a definite bifurcation. Maybe earlier developers find the escape hatch, while late developers, which are further SW, get caught by the ridge. Either way, purely academic at this point
Going to end of 12Z EPS as regards the CONUS, it is active Sept 21-26 with 9 H landfalls: 1 on NYC, 3 on SC, 4 on FL (Cape Canaveral, Keys, Tampa, E Panhandle), and 1 on MS.
So, a US hit from the Gulf could very much be in play here, especially if there's a delay in development. I continue to have the Gulf coast of FL as the highest seasonal risk area based on 8 ENSO analogs.
Last edited by LarryWx on Mon Sep 12, 2022 4:54 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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