How many named storms will form in October?

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How many named storms will form in October?

Poll ended at Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:59 pm

One
4
6%
Two
10
16%
Three
14
22%
Four
20
31%
Five
7
11%
Six or more
3
5%
None will form
6
9%
 
Total votes: 64

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Re: How many named storms will form in October?

#21 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:31 pm

Going with 4 storms, including 2 hurricanes (both majors).
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Re: How many named storms will form in October?

#22 Postby FireRat » Sat Sep 24, 2022 6:19 pm

Went with 6 or more, 2022 might keep trolling us with a hyperactive October after what we've seen this month
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Re: How many named storms will form in October?

#23 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 24, 2022 6:39 pm

Yeah my vote of zero was prematurely bearish lol. I now think we’ll see between 2-4 storms.
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Re: How many named storms will form in October?

#24 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2022 6:43 pm

aspen wrote:Yeah my vote of zero was prematurely bearish lol. I now think we’ll see between 2-4 storms.


I edited the poll to allow members that may want to change their vote to do so.
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Re: How many named storms will form in October?

#25 Postby Ryxn » Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:07 pm

I am going to be ballsy and go with 6 storms, including 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes with a season-to-date total of 16 storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes (yes I think 99L will develop). I think November will divide October in half and feature 3 storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 major (sorta similar to 2020 but the major here would be 115 mph instead of two 155s). Then I think one more named storm in December and the season ends with 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes tying it with 1933 as the fourth-busiest season and being a historically backloaded season with 5 storms forming before peak and 15 after (75%). Let's see how my prediction pans out. Edit* apparently models are still showing MDR development for the first week of October provide a further case that we're experiencing a delayed season.

For reference:

Pre-/Post-Peak Storm Distributions (Active Era)

1995
Tropical Storm: 63% / 37% FL (frontloaded)
Hurricane>>>>: 55% / 45% N> (normal, > means slightly frontloaded)
Major>>>>>>>>:40% / 60% BL (backloaded)
Average>>>>>>:53% / 47% Normal (>)

1996
Tropical Storm: 62% / 38% FL
Hurricane>>>>: 67% / 33% FL
Major>>>>>>>>:67% / 33% FL
Average>>>>>>:65% / 35% Frontloaded

1997
Tropical Storm: 75% / 25% Very FL
Hurricane>>>>: 100% / 0% Extr. FL (extremely frontloaded)
Major>>>>>>>>:100% / 0% Extr. FL
Average>>>>>>:92% / 7% Extremely Frontloaded

1998
Tropical Storm: 43% / 57% N< (< means slightly backloaded)
Hurricane>>>>: 30% / 70% Very BL
Major>>>>>>>>:33% / 67% BL
Average>>>>>>:35% / 65% Backloaded

1999
Tropical Storm: 50% / 50% N= (= means even distribution)
Hurricane>>>>: 50% / 50% N=
Major>>>>>>>>:60% / 40% FL
Average>>>>>>:53% / 47% Normal (>)

2000
Tropical Storm: 33% / 67% BL
Hurricane>>>>: 25% / 75% Very BL
Major>>>>>>>>:33% / 67% BL
Average>>>>>>:30% / 70% Very Backloaded

2001
Tropical Storm: 40% / 60% BL
Hurricane>>>>: 22% / 78% Very BL
Major>>>>>>>>:50% / 50% N=
Average>>>>>>:37% / 63% Backloaded

2002
Tropical Storm: 58% / 42% N>
Hurricane>>>>: 25% / 75% Very BL
Major>>>>>>>>:0% / 100% Extr. BL
Average>>>>>>:28% / 72% Very Backloaded

2003
Tropical Storm: 56% / 44% N>
Hurricane>>>>: 71% / 29% Very FL
Major>>>>>>>>:67% / 33% FL
Average>>>>>>:65% / 35% Frontloaded

2004
Tropical Storm: 60% / 40% FL
Hurricane>>>>: 67% / 33% FL
Major>>>>>>>>:67% / 33% FL
Average>>>>>>:65% / 35% Frontloaded

2005
Tropical Storm: 54% / 46% N>
Hurricane>>>>: 55% / 45% N>
Major>>>>>>>>:53% / 47% N>
Average>>>>>>:54% / 46% Normal (>)

2006
Tropical Storm: 70% / 30% Very FL
Hurricane>>>>: 40% / 60% BL
Major>>>>>>>>:0% / 100% Extr. BL
Average>>>>>>:37% / 63% Backloaded

2007
Tropical Storm: 47% / 53% N<
Hurricane>>>>: 33% / 67% BL
Major>>>>>>>>:100% / 0% Extr. FL
Average>>>>>>:60% / 40% Frontloaded

2008
Tropical Storm: 63% / 37% FL
Hurricane>>>>: 63% / 37% FL
Major>>>>>>>>:60% / 40% FL
Average>>>>>>:62% / 38% Frontloaded

2009
Tropical Storm: 67% / 33% FL
Hurricane>>>>: 67% / 33% FL
Major>>>>>>>>:100% / 0% Extr. FL
Average>>>>>>:78% / 22% Very Frontloaded

2010
Tropical Storm: 47% / 53% N<
Hurricane>>>>: 33% / 67% BL
Major>>>>>>>>:60% / 40% FL
Average>>>>>>:47% / 53% Normal (<)

2011
Tropical Storm: 79% / 21% Very FL
Hurricane>>>>: 57% / 43% N>
Major>>>>>>>>:50% / 50% N=
Average>>>>>>:62% / 38% Frontloaded

2012
Tropical Storm: 68% / 32% FL
Hurricane>>>>: 70% / 30% Very FL
Major>>>>>>>>:50% / 50% N=
Average>>>>>>:63% / 37% Frontloaded

2013
Tropical Storm: 57% / 43% N>
Hurricane>>>>: 50% / 50% N=
Major>>>>>>>>:None formed
Average>>>>>>:54% / 46% Normal (>)

2014
Tropical Storm: 50% / 50% N=
Hurricane>>>>: 50% / 50% N=
Major>>>>>>>>:0% / 100% Extr. BL
Average>>>>>>:33% / 67% Backloaded

2015
Tropical Storm: 73% / 27% Very FL
Hurricane>>>>: 50% / 50% N=
Major>>>>>>>>:50% / 50% N=
Average>>>>>>:58% / 42% Normal (>)

2016
Tropical Storm: 53% / 47% N>
Hurricane>>>>: 57% / 43% N>
Major>>>>>>>>:25% / 75% Very BL
Average>>>>>>:45% / 55% Normal (<)

2017
Tropical Storm: 65% / 35% FL
Hurricane>>>>: 60% / 40% FL
Major>>>>>>>>:50% / 50% N=
Average>>>>>>:58% / 42% Normal (>)

2018
Tropical Storm: 60% / 40% FL
Hurricane>>>>: 63% / 37% FL
Major>>>>>>>>:50% / 50% N=
Average>>>>>>:58% / 42% Normal (>)

2019
Tropical Storm: 39% / 61% BL
Hurricane>>>>: 33% / 67% BL
Major>>>>>>>>:33% / 67% BL
Average>>>>>>:35% / 65% Backloaded

2020
Tropical Storm: 57% / 43% N>
Hurricane>>>>: 43% / 57% N<
Major>>>>>>>>:14% / 86% Extr. BL
Average>>>>>>:38% / 62% Backloaded

2021
Tropical Storm: 62% / 38% FL
Hurricane>>>>: 71% / 29% Very FL
Major>>>>>>>>:75% / 25% Very FL
Average>>>>>>:69% / 31% Frontloaded

2022 (Ryxn Numbers)
Tropical Storm: 25% / 75% Very BL
Hurricane>>>>: 20% / 80% Extr. BL
Major>>>>>>>>:0% / 100% Extr. BL
Average>>>>>>:15% / 85% Extremely Backloaded

1995-2021 Categorial and Overall Averages
Tropical Storm: 57% / 43% N>
Hurricane>>>>: 50.3% / 49.7% N=>
Major>>>>>>>>:49.5% / 50.5% N=<
Average>>>>>>: 53% / 47% Normal (>)

Observations

Over the past 27 years, it seems the Atlantic liked to switch from frontloaded to backloaded phases, stay normal for a bit, then go to switching. The 3-year period 1995-1997 were back-to-back frontloaded or at least slightly frontloaded (in '95's case) seasons. 1997 was EXTREMELY frontloaded with 92% of its total storms forming before September 10. Then we get a 5-year streak of backloaded seasons 1998-2002 aside from 1999 which was normal (2000 and 2002 were both VERY backloaded). Then we get a 10-year streak of frontloaded seasons from 2003-2012 aside from 2005 and 2010 which were only slightly frontloaded (though 2010 was backloaded hurricane-wise) and 2006 which was backloaded (though it was very frontloaded named-storm-wise). Then comes the string of seasons (6 years) with even distribution from 2013-2018 aside from 2014 which was backloaded (though it was even for both named storms and hurricanes; it was the majors that made it backloaded, 2016 was only slightly backloaded despite late season majors). Then we return to primary backloaded seasons from 2019 to now which the exception of 2021 which was unusually frontloaded and had an anomalously inactive October. This year looks to contine the trend of backloaded seasons! Truly fascinating stuff.

1995-1997: Frontloaded Phase
1998-2002: Backloaded Phase (5 years)
2003-2012: Frontloaded Phase (10 years)
2013-2018: Normal Phase (6 years)
2019-Present: Backloaded Phase (minus 2021 anomaly)
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Re: How many named storms will form in October?

#26 Postby FireRat » Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:47 am

:uarrow: awesome analysis Ryxn!! This was really neat to read and yep you may be onto something.

Something was telling me this season was going to be backloaded as heck, almost like 2019-2020.
2022 may have us kinda fooled so far, so perhaps we do get to 19-20 NS afterall, at least this is back on the table especially if 99L gets the J name soon.

October will likely be above average, especially given the model runs still showing MDR activity. It's as if this season is running a month behind, so perhaps October will keep acting as September and November as October. Imagine if instead of 2 155mph systems in Nov, we get 1 175+ mph beast instead! It would be even crazier if it was the last Nov system in Late November, this year would be that weird to have stuff like this imo. Gonna be interesting times ahead, after Ian.
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Re: How many named storms will form in October?

#27 Postby Ryxn » Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:28 am

FireRat wrote::uarrow: awesome analysis Ryxn!! This was really neat to read and yep you may be onto something.

Something was telling me this season was going to be backloaded as heck, almost like 2019-2020.
2022 may have us kinda fooled so far, so perhaps we do get to 19-20 NS afterall, at least this is back on the table especially if 99L gets the J name soon.

October will likely be above average, especially given the model runs still showing MDR activity. It's as if this season is running a month behind, so perhaps October will keep acting as September and November as October. Imagine if instead of 2 155mph systems in Nov, we get 1 175+ mph beast instead! It would be even crazier if it was the last Nov system in Late November, this year would be that weird to have stuff like this imo. Gonna be interesting times ahead, after Ian.


I appreciate the support! Aha yeah it took a few hours to lay out these stats. I find it fascinating.
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Re: How many named storms will form in October?

#28 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 27, 2022 5:41 am

Can't decide between 4 or 5 because I'm thinking that the Momentum of September will carry into October.
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Re: How many named storms will form in October?

#29 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:19 am

Those who have not voted yet have until 7:59 PM EDT to vote as it will close at that time.
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Re: How many named storms will form in October?

#30 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:50 am

cycloneye wrote:Those who have not voted yet have until 7:59 PM EDT to vote as it will close at that time.


Perfect timing for the bump! :D

I voted 5
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Re: How many named storms will form in October?

#31 Postby Lightning48 » Fri Sep 30, 2022 11:19 am

I vote 4- Wes Western Caribbean is still primed for more activity
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Re: How many named storms will form in October?

#32 Postby Abdullah » Fri Sep 30, 2022 4:48 pm

Five
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Re: How many named storms will form in October?

#33 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:03 pm

Poll has closed for voting. Let's see which of the options wins.
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Re: How many named storms will form in October?

#34 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:11 am

The winner was 3: Julia, Karl, and Lisa (barely). While it’s possible Invest 94L gets a post-season upgrade, it was probably nothing more than a brief TD and wouldn’t change the winning number.
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Re: How many named storms will form in October?

#35 Postby Landy » Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:15 am

First poll in a while that I got right. Close call :D
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Re: How many named storms will form in October?

#36 Postby Hammy » Tue Nov 01, 2022 7:27 pm

aspen wrote:The winner was 3: Julia, Karl, and Lisa (barely). While it’s possible Invest 94L gets a post-season upgrade, it was probably nothing more than a brief TD and wouldn’t change the winning number.


I think more likely is that Martin's genesis is moved forward 12+ hours
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