Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic

[cycloneye]

Near the Coast of Africa:
Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of Africa
by early next week. Some gradual development of the wave will be
possible after it moves over water and heads generally westward
over the far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[aspen]

It’s a basket of lemons out there in the eastern MDR. Only time will tell if the model runs of this ripening into a TC will come to fruition.

[Category5Kaiju]

Wait there was actually model support for this system? I thought people were saying it would be completely dead after Earl; did I just misinterpret things?

[AnnularCane]

It’s a basket of lemons out there in the eastern MDR. Only time will tell if the model runs of this ripening into a TC will come to fruition.

You know what they say about life giving you lemons...

[CyclonicFury]

12z UKMET develops this, although it is very weak:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.4N 23.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2022 96 13.4N 23.4W 1007 27
0000UTC 14.09.2022 108 14.7N 26.7W 1008 30
1200UTC 14.09.2022 120 15.8N 28.8W 1007 34
0000UTC 15.09.2022 132 17.0N 32.8W 1009 36
1200UTC 15.09.2022 144 18.5N 35.4W 1011 32

[LarryWx]

12z UKMET develops this, although it is very weak:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.4N 23.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2022 96 13.4N 23.4W 1007 27
0000UTC 14.09.2022 108 14.7N 26.7W 1008 30
1200UTC 14.09.2022 120 15.8N 28.8W 1007 34
0000UTC 15.09.2022 132 17.0N 32.8W 1009 36
1200UTC 15.09.2022 144 18.5N 35.4W 1011 32

I'm confident this will be another fail by the UKMET similar to the AEW now SSW of the CVs. There's way too much SAL in the MDR now.

[cycloneye]

3. Near the Coast of Africa:
Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of Africa
by early next week. Some gradual development of the wave will be
possible after it moves over water and heads generally westward
over the far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[CyclonicFury]

The 12z Euro once again develops this right after splashdown, but it could be yet another false alarm since other models are much weaker.

[cycloneye]

Near the Coast of Africa:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
early next week. Some gradual development of the wave will be
possible after it moves over water and heads generally westward
over the far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
on Monday. Gradual development of the wave will be possible during
the early to middle part of next week while it moves westward or
west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Models have backed off on this wave.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1568688402782130181

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
on Monday. Gradual development of the wave will be possible during
the early to middle part of next week while it moves westward or
west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Down to 20%.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday. Any development of this wave should be slow to occur while
it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster D. Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located less than a couple hundred miles southeast
of the easternmost Cabo Verde Islands is producing a small area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear only marginally favorable, and any development of this wave
should be slow to occur while it moves westward or
west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic through the
end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[aspen]

The entire MDR is popping with thunderstorms tonight, including this wave. It’s had decent convective activity all day long and maybe has a chance to be a quick spin-up, despite pretty much zero model support.

[Hammy]

Is this the wave behind Fiona? GFS now develops it and Euro had a surface low developing in the same time frame earlier.

[cycloneye]

Is this the wave behind Fiona? GFS now develops it and Euro had a surface low developing in the same time frame earlier.

No. I made this thread for wave that NHC had marked in TWO on September 9. A new thread can be made by anyone for that new wave #40.

[cycloneye]

NHC added it again to TWO.

1. Central Atlantic:
A tropical wave located roughly midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower
activity. Some slow development of this system is possible
late this weekend and early next week when it turns northward over
the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[galaxy401]

With it going into the subtropics, that appears to open the door for possible development since that seems to be the only favorable area.

[Hammy]

Broad, weak, but closed low based on low level cloud motion