Will the EPAC end up more active than ATLC this year?

[Astromanía]

What are you thoughts, given the ongoing La Niña?

[Kingarabian]

Now seems likely. Thanks to a combo of a strange PDO and no WPAC/ATL competition. PDO is very warm off of North America.

Typical suppressive PDO is usually cold off of North America.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Thanks to a combo of a strange PDO and no WPAC/ATL competition. PDO is very warm off of North America.

Typical suppressive PDO is usually cold off of North America.

This la nina is acting like an el nino for odd to say the least.

[Yellow Evan]

Thanks to a combo of a strange PDO and no WPAC/ATL competition. PDO is very warm off of North America.

Typical suppressive PDO is usually cold off of North America.

This la nina is acting like an el nino for odd to say the least.

Hardly. The atmospheric Niña coupling right now is at record levels and I’d actually say this is reflected by the tropical cyclone activity in all NHEM basins.

[skyline385]

Thanks to a combo of a strange PDO and no WPAC/ATL competition. PDO is very warm off of North America.

Typical suppressive PDO is usually cold off of North America.

This la nina is acting like an el nino for odd to say the least.

Hardly. The atmospheric Niña coupling right now is at record levels and I’d actually say this is reflected by the tropical cyclone activity in all NHEM basins.

Nina is strong in the ENSO regions but outside of that i am not so sure honestly. Look at the waters of the west coast particularly and how they are closer to 2015 than 2010.






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[NotSparta]

This la nina is acting like an el nino for odd to say the least.

Hardly. The atmospheric Niña coupling right now is at record levels and I’d actually say this is reflected by the tropical cyclone activity in all NHEM basins.

Nina is strong in the ENSO regions but outside of that i am not so sure honestly. Look at the waters of the west coast particularly and how they are closer to 2015 than 2010.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220912/d15f51df3648348328a0009c4a2e74cb.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220912/b058ea5f4195e7e211591626db66078b.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220912/414d5f388bf2abacf4a90682e0869acb.jpg


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Those off equatorial regions are irrelevant to ENSO

[skyline385]

Hardly. The atmospheric Niña coupling right now is at record levels and I’d actually say this is reflected by the tropical cyclone activity in all NHEM basins.

Nina is strong in the ENSO regions but outside of that i am not so sure honestly. Look at the waters of the west coast particularly and how they are closer to 2015 than 2010.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220912/d15f51df3648348328a0009c4a2e74cb.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220912/b058ea5f4195e7e211591626db66078b.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220912/414d5f388bf2abacf4a90682e0869acb.jpg


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Those off equatorial regions are irrelevant to ENSO

Which is why i said Nina is strong in the ENSO regions. Yes those regions outside are irrelevant to ENSO specifically but they are clearly having some influence on the season.


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[WiscoWx02]

This is definitely a no brainer at this point. EPAC all the way and by a landslide. Atlantic is toast for finishing anywhere near average and the eastern Pacific has already been relatively active all year so it’s not going to take much to finish on top. Even if we had no more hurricanes in the east Pac all season I still think we’d finish with a lot more ACE there than in the Atlantic.

[Yellow Evan]

This la nina is acting like an el nino for odd to say the least.

Hardly. The atmospheric Niña coupling right now is at record levels and I’d actually say this is reflected by the tropical cyclone activity in all NHEM basins.

Nina is strong in the ENSO regions but outside of that i am not so sure honestly. Look at the waters of the west coast particularly and how they are closer to 2015 than 2010.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220912/d15f51df3648348328a0009c4a2e74cb.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220912/b058ea5f4195e7e211591626db66078b.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220912/414d5f388bf2abacf4a90682e0869acb.jpg


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Look at the waters off Japan and how warm they are, stretching the Hadley Cell in the WPAC. I’ll concede the warm SST’s may be raising the thermodynamic potential of a few storms, but this year has atmospherically resembled a La Niña, with MEI at near record levels, extensive heat in the extratropics, strong monsoons, little convection over the tropical Pacific, no signs of a WPAC monsoon trough until just now, EPAC TC’s have been limited to east of 115W and have mostly been sheared by ULAC’s by Mexico, and said extratropical warmth triggering ACB over the Atlantic making it hostile. In an El Niño, you’d be seeing a lot more oceanic tropical warmth and convection in general, including obviously the Pacific, and that would be shearing the Atlantic, especially the Caribbean while the Pacific basins would have a much easier time producing stronger storms.

[aspen]

The EPac is already at almost 90 ACE. It’ll take a couple of majors to get the Atlantic past 50 ACE at this rate. Who would’ve guessed that such a strong La Niña would yield one of the most active -ENSO EPac years (especially in the number of hurricanes), but also feature potentially one of the least active Atlantic seasons on record.

[Iceresistance]

The EPac is already at almost 90 ACE. It’ll take a couple of majors to get the Atlantic past 50 ACE at this rate. Who would’ve guessed that such a strong La Niña would yield one of the most active -ENSO EPac years (especially in the number of hurricanes), but also feature potentially one of the least active Atlantic seasons on record.

I've been thinking that we're having a Modoki-like La Nina, where the conditions that were supposed to be unfavorable end up in the Atlantic instead of normally being in the EPAC.

[Category5Kaiju]

The EPac is already at almost 90 ACE. It’ll take a couple of majors to get the Atlantic past 50 ACE at this rate. Who would’ve guessed that such a strong La Niña would yield one of the most active -ENSO EPac years (especially in the number of hurricanes), but also feature potentially one of the least active Atlantic seasons on record.

I've been thinking that we're having a Modoki-like La Nina, where the conditions that were supposed to be unfavorable end up in the Atlantic instead of normally being in the EPAC.

This actually doesn't seem to be a Modoki La Nina. Modoki La Ninas typically feature much warmer Nino 1,2 regions. The Nino 1,2 region, equatorially, is not as warm as years such as 2011, which were true, operationally defined Modoki La Nina years.

[Iceresistance]

The EPac is already at almost 90 ACE. It’ll take a couple of majors to get the Atlantic past 50 ACE at this rate. Who would’ve guessed that such a strong La Niña would yield one of the most active -ENSO EPac years (especially in the number of hurricanes), but also feature potentially one of the least active Atlantic seasons on record.

I've been thinking that we're having a Modoki-like La Nina, where the conditions that were supposed to be unfavorable end up in the Atlantic instead of normally being in the EPAC.

This actually doesn't seem to be a Modoki La Nina. Modoki La Ninas typically feature much warmer Nino 1,2 regions. The Nino 1,2 region, equatorially, is not as warm as years such as 2011, which were true, operationally defined Modoki La Nina years.

Can this La Nina be the one that is acting like a Modoki La Nina? This situation is very unique, I have never seen anything like this before.

[Astromanía]

Thanks to a combo of a strange PDO and no WPAC/ATL competition. PDO is very warm off of North America.

Typical suppressive PDO is usually cold off of North America.

This la nina is acting like an el nino for odd to say the least.

Hardly. The atmospheric Niña coupling right now is at record levels and I’d actually say this is reflected by the tropical cyclone activity in all NHEM basins.

How la niña affect the Southern hemisphere? coz last season was a below average

[Kingarabian]

In regards to the EPAC, TC activity is dictated mainly by ENSO/PDO/PMM. That being said, the PDO and the PMM are closely associated with ENSO. So if ENSO is cool/La Nina, expect the PDO and PMM to be negative.

While the PDO and the PMM are negative due to values of certain anomalies in their respective regions, the anomalies near North America have remained abnormally warm.

So with La Nina favoring TCG near North America and the current warm SST configuration, it's not a surprise to see the above average numbers in the EPAC.
But it is a surprise to many (including me) who simply thought there would be a slow EPAC season due to the negative values in the ENSO/PDO/PMM variables.