Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[LarryWx]

Iceresistance and myself have been following this since 48 hours ago, when it was producing plentiful convection in western Africa. There have been a good number of runs of various operational models as well as ensemble members taking this into the western basin as at least a weak surface low. About 9 hours ago, I posted in the TW thread that it appeared to me per satellite loops that there was a circulation at 11N, 23W, with impressive convection moving west.

This only waned a little after I last posted that. Now, check it out as we start to head toward DMAX, which is still 5-6 hours away in the E MDR. Convection has again blossomed in a circular pattern now centered on 11N, 24W. It looks even more impressive than it looked early today. This has the makings of a sleeper as the NHC doesn't mention this in the TWO.

By the way, I'm not sure if this is directly associated with AEW #40.

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance and myself have been following this since 48 hours ago, when it was producing plentiful convection in western Africa. There have been a good number of runs of various operational models as well as ensemble members taking this into the western basin as at least a weak surface low. About 9 hours ago, I posted in the TW thread that it appeared to me per satellite loops that there was a circulation at 11N, 23W, with impressive convection moving west.

This only waned a little after I last posted that. Now, check it out as we start to head toward DMAX, which is still 5-6 hours away in the E MDR. Convection has again blossomed in a circular pattern now centered on 11N, 24W. It looks even more impressive than it looked early today. This has the makings of a sleeper as the NHC doesn't mention this in the TWO.

By the way, I'm not sure if this is directly associated with AEW #40.

https://i.imgur.com/cEQDaq0.jpg

Yes, it's Wave #40 per 2022 Tropical Waves thread by Luis.

[LarryWx]

Today this looks less impressive as of DMIN although it is starting to refire convection near 11N, 30W. Still watching as quite a few ensemble members still keep this intact near the Caribbean.

[Hurricane Mike]

I'm keeping an eye on this. Looks pretty good and a lower latitude than most that have fizzled.

[Hurricaneman]

I feel this feature needs to be monitored, I see this as a possible Caribbean cruiser if it develops

[LemieT]

Just had a discussion about this. Models might not be "seeing" it yet. Next 24-36 hours we will have a much better idea of what this is about.

[Hurricaneman]

Just had a discussion about this. Models might not be "seeing" it yet. Next 24-36 hours we will have a much better idea of what this is about.

The 0zGFS seems to form a low from what I think is this feature in the GOM in the long range, could be something to watch in coming days

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W, south of
16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 07N to 13N and between 23W and 34W.

[aspen]

The wave at 35W might be another sleeper like Fiona (kind of). Models haven’t done much with it in a few days, possibly due to outflow from Fiona, but it looks like it’ll continue due west into the Caribbean. Some EPS members have Caribbean development in the 7-10 day range. We’re nearing the time of year where this part of the basin becomes favored, and the waters west of 65W have been untapped since Bonnie in early July.

[BobHarlem]

GFS has a "nice" opener for October in fantasy range. (Comes up from W. Caribbean around the 28th)



final frame:

[AutoPenalti]

GFS has a "nice" opener for October.

https://i.imgur.com/MBgorKj.png

No please, not during Halloween Horror Nights

[skyline385]

Funny how it also heads straight for SFL being yanked by the trough but then gets cut off at the last second. Anyways, there seems to be zero support on the EPS for now so probably another GFS phantom.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

[jlauderdal]

Funny how it also heads straight for SFL being yanked by the trough but then gets cut off at the last second. Anyways, there seems to be zero support on the EPS for now so probably another GFS phantom.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

Sofla is gfs long range default solution

[blp]

Funny how it also heads straight for SFL being yanked by the trough but then gets cut off at the last second. Anyways, there seems to be zero support on the EPS for now so probably another GFS phantom.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

I would not say zero support. It has a few members onboard. Looks like a sleeper wave from the MDR.

[Hurricaneman]

If the GFs is to be believed, this might not do much for 7 to 10 days but near that time is when this wave comes to life with a few EUro ensemble members so I wouldn’t take my eye off this until it’s gone or in Central America

[Hurricane Mike]

That would be a major hurricane strike on the Keys and then a threat to the North or Northeast Gulf Coast. Let's see if things progress in future runs.

[blp]

The jury is still out, but so far the GFS has been doing well this year picking up on the weaknesses in the ridge pattern with Earl and Fiona. It was the first one showing a more NW move over PR which has now begun with Fiona. Let's see if it can overcome it's development bias in the W. Caribbean. At least it seems to have a decent handle of the upper pattern so far. I see it's back to development again in the W. Caribbean.

[aspen]

12z GFS, Euro, and CMC are now starting to develop this in the WCar.

[blp]

Folks looks like we have some agreement. Euro onboard with CMC and GFS on development in W. Caribbean from the wave in the MDR.

GFS most progressive with the trough which is most believable this season with it's track record and Euro and CMC being too far west this year.

[LarryWx]

 This AEW is now near 42W (very weak low probably ~11N) continuing westbound and has been pretty inactive the last 2 days as dry, stable air has been interacting with it. There's only scattered convection with it now. The 12Z Euro as posted above does have this as a weak low in the W Caribbean 9/26, which then moves NW to the Gulf of Honduras on 9/28. By then, the W Caribbean season is already starting to get into full swing climowise. So, something to keep an eye on.