Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[Sambucol]

CMC has started adjusting towards the GFS/Euro

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220920/f42f5b7dfe47da21269538e52068e2b7.jpg
Is that more of a west track into the GOM?

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[skyline385]

Weaker Euro this run 120 hrs in

[skyline385]

CMC has started adjusting towards the GFS/Euro

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220920/f42f5b7dfe47da21269538e52068e2b7.jpg
Is that more of a west track into the GOM?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yea CMC started off much more westwards that the other models

[AtlanticWind]

Weaker Euro this run 120 hrs in

Euro seems to under do these systems until they are formed

[skyline385]

Looks like its going to be a sloppy run from the Euro, much more SW than previous runs and just a broad circulations so far.

[Keldeo1997]

Here we go. Going to shoot the channel

[skyline385]

Right through the channel but shear in the Gulf may limit its intensification

[skyline385]

Going to be very close for peninsular florida, could recurve towards Florida but if that trough moves out the ridge may build back again

[skyline385]

Euro 0Z ends weaker and slightly slower than 12Z

[Hammy]

CMC has started adjusting towards the GFS/Euro

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220920/f42f5b7dfe47da21269538e52068e2b7.jpg
Is that more of a west track into the GOM?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yea CMC started off much more westwards that the other models

Which is quite strange (and a trend this season in general, did the same with Fiona as well) as I'm used to it being the eastern outlier.

[skyline385]

Yea CMC started off much more westwards that the other models

Which is quite strange (and a trend this season in general, did the same with Fiona as well) as I'm used to it being the eastern outlier.

Yea it's been a strange season so far, even the GFS has been frequently modeling stronger ridges than the Euro (today's 0Z run at 240 hours is another such instance) which is completely the opposite of how they typically behave.

[Hurricane Mike]

It appears that once Fiona pushes out, this system would have a nice outflow jet on the eastern side when it's south of Cuba and starts strengthening like mad.

[Teban54]

Convection going strong as it approaches DMAX:

[skyline385]

Convection going strong as it approaches DMAX:

Yea even seeing some pink cloud tops, probably going to cause a very bullish 12Z suite if it persists…


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[Nimbus]

Very clear that the model runs are timing the start of recurve based on system strength.
Probably not going to stay weak all the way to the Yucatan so the Tex/Mex solutions aren't going to verify.
Barbados is the bowling rule of 31 marker I usually use.
If we have a sharpening wave just south of Barbados it could close off in time to shoot the Yucatan channel.

[SFLcane]

Very tricky setup as to what happens once it makes into the western Caribbean and feels the tug north as the jet streams dips.

[Iceresistance]

Yea CMC started off much more westwards that the other models

Which is quite strange (and a trend this season in general, did the same with Fiona as well) as I'm used to it being the eastern outlier.

Yea it's been a strange season so far, even the GFS has been frequently modeling stronger ridges than the Euro (today's 0Z run at 240 hours is another such instance) which is completely the opposite of how they typically behave.

I've remembered that the models have been underestimating the strength of the ridges and troughs in the past several years. And with a stronger ridge from the GFS compared to the Euro, I'm assuming that the GFS does not want that mistake this time around.

[Keldeo1997]

06z GFS is faster yet again. It seems the GFS has been treading towards faster forward speed.

[Hammy]

06z GFS is faster than 00Z. It seems the GFS has been treading towards faster forward speed.

Going to end up going over South America/not developing at all if that trend keeps up

[chris_fit]

Most NE of the last 4 runs so far