Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[BobHarlem]

Further east Cuba crosser this run, headed for keys.

[chris_fit]

Getting closer to SFL/Keys

[chris_fit]

As we expected, GFS sharing this storm with everybody along the Gulf Coast - this time, it's SW FL's turn, so far.

[jlauderdal]

Further east Cuba crosser this run, headed for keys.

https://i.imgur.com/jr3RR99.png

I like that track this far out, the trend is also good, let's hope it continues.

[Keldeo1997]

Charlie is back for to make up for the Tampa landfall busts.

[chris_fit]

Further east Cuba crosser this run, headed for keys.

https://i.imgur.com/jr3RR99.png

I like that track this far out, the trend is also good, let's hope it continues.

Exactly, my thinking as well - This is where you want to be 8-9-10+ days out.

[chris_fit]

Where's the Tampa Hurricane Shield?

[BobHarlem]

Tampa bay run here, VERY bad setup for surge if this happens this way. Check that off the long range GFS hit list. Hoping we get an invest designation on this soon for more models.

[Keldeo1997]

And GFS gives us the Hurricane Phoenix run...

[jlauderdal]

Further east Cuba crosser this run, headed for keys.

https://i.imgur.com/jr3RR99.png

I like that track this far out, the trend is also good, let's hope it continues.

Exactly, my thinking as well - This is where you want to be 8-9-10+ days out.

Yep, yesterday I wasn't happy to see it off to our west, but now it's coming in our direction and trending east so that's better. Here is where we don't want to be, anywhere near a 5-day NHC track, there is very little wiggle room when you are on their track. Its been a few weeks since I ran the new genny, starting it today to keep this system away

[pgoss11]

Well this run would be a problem for the entire east coast!

[SFLcane]

Gfs similar to its ensembles for now. Just makes sense in my opinion based on climo alone. Long way to go

[caneman]

Tampa bay run here, VERY bad setup for surge if this happens this way. Check that off the long range GFS hit list. Hoping we get an invest designation on this soon for more models.

https://i.imgur.com/qrNSzam.png

https://i.imgur.com/xoQQhwK.png

Dang that would wipe out my home. I live on the little peninsula known as Pinellas county but as others have said, I'd rather the model be on top of us this far out than a few days from now.

[SFLcane]

[wxman57]

Unfortunately, this disturbance could be trouble for the eastern Gulf (Florida) in 8-9 days. Definitely not Charley, as this could be larger. I'm not so confident where it will really go yet. If it's slower to develop and weaker, it may crash into Central America. That's the best we could hope for. I think it'll most likely become a depression next Sun/Mon as it passes south of Jamaica. Look for NHC probabilities to steadily climb as that development point falls within 5 days and if models don't change. If I lived anywhere in Florida or on the northern Gulf Coast, I'd check my hurricane supplies now before the panic starts.

[SFLcane]

[LarryWx]

The UKMET (12Z) has this as a TC per the textual output for the second time as it was also on the 12Z 9/14 run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 13.6N 76.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2022 144 13.6N 76.4W 1006 26

*Corrected to say this is the 2nd UKMET run with it

The 0Z UKMET is the 3rd run overall and 2nd run in a row with TC genesis. This has it occur 30 hours earlier than the prior run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.8N 71.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2022 108 13.6N 72.9W 1007 28
0000UTC 25.09.2022 120 13.7N 75.0W 1005 26
1200UTC 25.09.2022 132 13.3N 77.4W 1004 28
0000UTC 26.09.2022 144 13.8N 79.7W 1002 29

[toad strangler]

Gfs similar to its ensembles for now. Just makes sense in my opinion based on climo alone. Long way to go

https://i.postimg.cc/9Q25V0Pn/C9857-F93-EE13-432-B-BE91-8863-A856-C899.png

that looks like Wilma with that eye

[caneman]

Unfortunately, this disturbance could be trouble for the eastern Gulf (Florida) in 8-9 days. Definitely not Charley, as this could be larger. I'm not so confident where it will really go yet. If it's slower to develop and weaker, it may crash into Central America. That's the best we could hope for. I think it'll most likely become a depression next Sun/Mon as it passes south of Jamaica. Look for NHC probabilities to steadily climb as that development point falls within 5 days and if models don't change. If I lived anywhere in Florida or on the northern Gulf Coast, I'd check my hurricane supplies now before the panic starts.

Dang, I'm fixing to take this serious. Normally you underplay systems and are usually right. You have my attention on the west coast of Florida now.

[toad strangler]

Further east Cuba crosser this run, headed for keys.

https://i.imgur.com/jr3RR99.png

I like that track this far out, the trend is also good, let's hope it continues.

Exactly, my thinking as well - This is where you want to be 8-9-10+ days out.

I'm sure there will be E of FL to Hatteras and beyond runs in the coming days.