Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[skyline385]

HWRF and HMON off the Fiona grid on board in remarkable agreement. Wow.

https://i.ibb.co/rfpGhrB/16-track.png

https://i.ibb.co/LdGf30p/15-track.png

oh wow, that's amazing. I don't think I have ever heard of that happening, seen plenty of off-grid systems when there is a well defined center but not this close in agreement when the wave is completely open. What is the source of that btw, curious which site lets you track systems not in the HWRF/HMON nest.

[blp]

HWRF and HMON off the Fiona grid on board in remarkable agreement. Wow.

https://i.ibb.co/rfpGhrB/16-track.png

https://i.ibb.co/LdGf30p/15-track.png

oh wow, that's amazing. I don't think I have ever heard of that happening, seen plenty of off-grid systems when there is a well defined center but not this close in agreement when the wave is completely open. What is the source of that btw, curious which site lets you track systems not in the HWRF/HMON nest.

FSU

Hmon:
https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/hmon/fiona07l/fcst/index.html

Hwrf:
https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/hwrf/fiona07l/fcst/index.html

[lsuhurricane]

18z EPS are very clustered @ 144 hrs.

[lsuhurricane]

Much less spread compared to the 12z EPS

[psyclone]

This reminds me of the precursor disturbance that became hurricane Matthew 2016...a sneaky late September low rider. Calendar and location with a foundation of robust model interest has me intrigued.

[AtlanticWind]

This has the potential to the Hurricane of the year for the Continental U.S.

[St0rmTh0r]

it was only a matter of time before a low riding wave made its way through. people have jinxed this season!

[gatorcane]

Once again a good chunk of long range GEFS ensembles head north towards Cuba and Florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/8zQVxcsj/08455-C9-F-1-F60-4664-8-E24-36074832-B7-BF.gif

Climatology favors a northward and northeast turn. If something develops, especially something strong, I see a Florida impact coming.

Actually climo would favor more of north or NW turn toward the north-Central GOM or maybe the FL panhandle in particular not really the Florida peninsula. In a few weeks climo would favor the peninsula more.

[toad strangler]

Once again a good chunk of long range GEFS ensembles head north towards Cuba and Florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/8zQVxcsj/08455-C9-F-1-F60-4664-8-E24-36074832-B7-BF.gif

Climatology favors a northward and northeast turn. If something develops, especially something strong, I see a Florida impact coming.

Actually climo would favor more of north or NW turn toward the north-Central GOM or maybe the FL panhandle in particular not really the Florida peninsula. In a few weeks climo would favor the peninsula more.

This has been an atypical climo year

[InfernoFlameCat]

I see the buzz now. Geez.

[caneman]

Once again a good chunk of long range GEFS ensembles head north towards Cuba and Florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/8zQVxcsj/08455-C9-F-1-F60-4664-8-E24-36074832-B7-BF.gif

Climatology favors a northward and northeast turn. If something develops, especially something strong, I see a Florida impact coming.

Actually climo would favor more of north or NW turn toward the north-Central GOM or maybe the FL panhandle in particular not really the Florida peninsula. In a few weeks climo would favor the peninsula more.

I would say since we're getting later in the month of Sept there will be an equal chance of the peninsula getting it.

[AutoPenalti]

18z EPS a bit south of 12z

[Spacecoast]

18z EPS a bit south of 12z

Yes, it appears a bit S...
Comparing the 18z , and 12z (144hr)... black square is ECMF @ 144Hr:

[skyline385]

12Z EPS had probability of TD upto 85% for period of 3-5 days

[AJC3]

Pretty decent amplitude to the wave, according to a recent ASCAT METOP-B pass, even though it missed its western half.

[IcyTundra]

0Z ICON skirts the coast of Nicarauga and Hounduras.

[Keldeo1997]

GFS back South

[Pelicane]

GFS trending stronger and more south in the short term.

[IcyTundra]

0Z GFS coming in further south in the short term moving just north of Trinidad at hr 60.

[Keldeo1997]

GFS much stronger so far and tracking similarly to 12Z