2022 Tropical Cyclone Retirements: Fiona / Ian retired--New names for 2028 list=Farrah / Idris

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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#81 Postby NorthieStangl » Mon Oct 10, 2022 9:44 am



A pleasant surprise. Better late than never, like with Yutu.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#82 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Oct 10, 2022 3:50 pm

Sadly, Julia has officially caused 47 deaths, with 56 missing (so worst case hypothetical scenario thus far would be 103 people dead).

I'm starting to wonder if this may make it potentially a retirement-worthy system.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#83 Postby zhukm29 » Mon Oct 10, 2022 10:43 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Sadly, Julia has officially caused 47 deaths, with 56 missing (so worst case hypothetical scenario thus far would be 103 people dead).

I'm starting to wonder if this may make it potentially a retirement-worthy system.


Unfortunately a common occurrence whenever a storm hits that region :(

Definitely could be a candidate, since Central America is definitely less capable of handling tropical systems, and even a Category 1 system can be damaging. Should be noted though that Matthew in 2010 killed 126 in that region with 17 still missing (although at this point it's all but certain they didn't make it), but wasn't retired that season.

Most of the deaths were in Venezuela due to the precursor of Julia before it formed. Could Venezuela propose a retirement? If they could, I could see it happening.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#84 Postby GSBHurricane » Tue Oct 11, 2022 10:31 am

I agree Canada isn’t that liberal when it comes to retirement. As for comparing Igor to Karl, I found an interesting way to put it. Karl affected 15.8 million people in Mexico while New York City had a population of 8.175 million people. Based on the Population difference, the damage would have been $2 billion in New York City if Karl hit there like it did with Mexico. Igor, on the other hand, hit Newfoundland which had about 522,000 people then. That would have translated to $3.1 billion in New York City. Speaking of Canada, if a similar ratio for Igor holds between the insured damage and total damage, Canada will have a strong case to retire Fiona.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#85 Postby GSBHurricane » Tue Oct 11, 2022 10:36 am

NorthieStangl wrote:
Teban54 wrote:
Nuno wrote:I'd argue Gulf storms really need to be Cat. 4/5 or unusually high death totals for retirement consideration at this point.

I think the US is already doing that by not requesting retirement of Imelda, Sally, Delta and Zeta. (And Isaias though it wasn't in the Gulf.)


I don't know if anyone noticed this, but the last time the United States retired a storm that didn't cause at least $10 billion in damage was Gustav... way back in spring of 2009. That would explain why Sally didn't get retired with $7.3 billion in damage, although I would argue it should had been.


I thought it was Cuba that requested Gustav’s retirement, hence the name Gonzalo (along with Isaias to replace Ike).
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#86 Postby underthwx » Tue Oct 11, 2022 10:42 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Sadly, Julia has officially caused 47 deaths, with 56 missing (so worst case hypothetical scenario thus far would be 103 people dead).

I'm starting to wonder if this may make it potentially a retirement-worthy system.

I am truly heavy in my heart reading of the loss of life, with Julia, Ian, or any cyclone that affects those of us in areas cyclones affect....personally speaking, any cyclone that causes 1 loss of precious life, should not be reused, out of respect for those who perish...I don't know what the criteria are, for cyclone name retirement, to me it's a morbid decision to have to make, and again, to me the choice is obvious, just find another name.....
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#87 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 11, 2022 12:57 pm

It's hard to say regarding Julia if it is worthy. Of the countries in that region, Costa Rica seems to be the most liberal when it comes to retiring names, but there have been weaker storms retired there before.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#88 Postby NorthieStangl » Tue Oct 11, 2022 3:40 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:It's hard to say regarding Julia if it is worthy. Of the countries in that region, Costa Rica seems to be the most liberal when it comes to retiring names, but there have been weaker storms retired there before.


Amanda killed 40 people in May 2021 and it's still on the list, so Julia's (in addition to Hermine's) chances are iffy at this point. Might be too early to call. I won't be surprised if Julia got thrown into the can along with Fiona and Ian, but I'm not expecting it.

Hermine, at the moment, has an even lower chance since Spain has no history of retiring any name - the only European countries, as far as I know, that had done so are France (Klaus 1990 is an infamous example) and the UK (Fabian 2003, Paloma 2008), even though the Netherlands is also on the hurricane committee due to the multiple dependencies in the Caribbean. Also don't forget the Lorenzo debate from 2019 after it affected the Azores and many people are so sure that Portugal would ask for its retirement, and that didn't happen.

Fiona - 100%
Hermine - 25%
Ian - 100%
Julia - 50%
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#89 Postby NorthieStangl » Tue Oct 11, 2022 3:46 pm

GSBHurricane wrote:
NorthieStangl wrote:
Teban54 wrote:I think the US is already doing that by not requesting retirement of Imelda, Sally, Delta and Zeta. (And Isaias though it wasn't in the Gulf.)


I don't know if anyone noticed this, but the last time the United States retired a storm that didn't cause at least $10 billion in damage was Gustav... way back in spring of 2009. That would explain why Sally didn't get retired with $7.3 billion in damage, although I would argue it should had been.


I thought it was Cuba that requested Gustav’s retirement, hence the name Gonzalo (along with Isaias to replace Ike).


My, I think you're right. If that is the fact... then that mean the last time an storm with a less than $10 billion dollars price tag to get retired at USA's request was Jeanne in 2004 - 18 whooping years ago - even though it nearly reached that milestone.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#90 Postby zal0phus » Wed Oct 12, 2022 11:35 am

I wonder if Julia could be retired due to the flooding in Central America, interesting to note that no retired names so far would be originals
My favored name replacements:
Fiona -> Fatima
Ian -> Ivor
Julia -> Janine

Edited my statement about the 700 fatalities from Julia. Looks like that was someone trolling on Wikipedia
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#91 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Oct 12, 2022 12:14 pm

zal0phus wrote:I wonder if Julia could be retired due to the flooding in Central America, interesting to note that no retired names so far would be originals
My favored name replacements:
Fiona -> Fatima
Ian -> Ivor
Julia -> Janine

Edited my statement about the 700 fatalities from Julia. Looks like that was someone trolling on Wikipedia


So many good female J names out there. Jasmine, Jennifer, Jessica, Juniper....kind of sucks that we have an I curse and not a J curse :lol:
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#92 Postby Teban54 » Wed Oct 12, 2022 12:21 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
zal0phus wrote:I wonder if Julia could be retired due to the flooding in Central America, interesting to note that no retired names so far would be originals
My favored name replacements:
Fiona -> Fatima
Ian -> Ivor
Julia -> Janine

Edited my statement about the 700 fatalities from Julia. Looks like that was someone trolling on Wikipedia


So many good female J names out there. Jasmine, Jennifer, Jessica, Juniper....kind of sucks that we have an I curse and not a J curse :lol:

This makes me wonder why they ended up choosing Julia in 2004 followed by Julian in 2015 for adjacent naming lists, when there are so many male and female J names that sound nothing like each other. Imagine a future year where Julia affects the same area that Julian did in the previous year...
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#93 Postby zal0phus » Wed Oct 12, 2022 12:57 pm

Teban54 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
zal0phus wrote:I wonder if Julia could be retired due to the flooding in Central America, interesting to note that no retired names so far would be originals
My favored name replacements:
Fiona -> Fatima
Ian -> Ivor
Julia -> Janine

Edited my statement about the 700 fatalities from Julia. Looks like that was someone trolling on Wikipedia


So many good female J names out there. Jasmine, Jennifer, Jessica, Juniper....kind of sucks that we have an I curse and not a J curse :lol:

This makes me wonder why they ended up choosing Julia in 2004 followed by Julian in 2015 for adjacent naming lists, when there are so many male and female J names that sound nothing like each other. Imagine a future year where Julia affects the same area that Julian did in the previous year...


The only workaround to that I could possibly see is if Julian is intended to be pronounced in Spanish. So "HOO-le-awn" instead of "JOO-li-ihn"
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#94 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Oct 12, 2022 1:01 pm

zal0phus wrote:
Teban54 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
So many good female J names out there. Jasmine, Jennifer, Jessica, Juniper....kind of sucks that we have an I curse and not a J curse :lol:

This makes me wonder why they ended up choosing Julia in 2004 followed by Julian in 2015 for adjacent naming lists, when there are so many male and female J names that sound nothing like each other. Imagine a future year where Julia affects the same area that Julian did in the previous year...


The only workaround to that I could possibly see is if Julian is intended to be pronounced in Spanish. So "HOO-le-awn" instead of "JOO-li-ihn"


According to the cyclone name pronunciation guide made by NHC, it's pronounced the English way not the Spanish way. Still, I'm unsure why they decided to replace Joaquin with Julian when Julia already existed..
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#95 Postby NorthieStangl » Wed Oct 12, 2022 3:36 pm

NorthieStangl wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:It's hard to say regarding Julia if it is worthy. Of the countries in that region, Costa Rica seems to be the most liberal when it comes to retiring names, but there have been weaker storms retired there before.


Amanda killed 40 people in May 2021 and it's still on the list, so Julia's (in addition to Hermine's) chances are iffy at this point. Might be too early to call. I won't be surprised if Julia got thrown into the can along with Fiona and Ian, but I'm not expecting it.

Hermine, at the moment, has an even lower chance since Spain has no history of retiring any name - the only European countries, as far as I know, that had done so are France (Klaus 1990 is an infamous example) and the UK (Fabian 2003, Paloma 2008), even though the Netherlands is also on the hurricane committee due to the multiple dependencies in the Caribbean. Also don't forget the Lorenzo debate from 2019 after it affected the Azores and many people are so sure that Portugal would ask for its retirement, and that didn't happen.

Fiona - 100%
Hermine - 25%
Ian - 100%
Julia - 50%


Alright, since Julia's death toll had rose considerably lately with dozens more still missing, I'm going to raise Julia's retirement chance to 75%. What stopped me from giving it a 100% chance is the fact that most of the deaths occurred in Venezuela, and with the ongoong political turmoil there I slightly doubt that they will take time to send a retirement request. I'm also not aware of any instance of Nicaragua sending out any retirement request either. Otto, Eta, and Iota were all retired at Costa Rica's insistence, and I suspect Joan was retired on Colombia's behalf.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#96 Postby cainjamin » Wed Oct 12, 2022 3:38 pm

With Fiona officially being Canada's costliest hurricane, I have no doubt they'll request retirement. As others have said, they requested both Igor and Juan (both $200 mil in damage), and Fiona did minumum $300 mil just in insured damages. Non insured damages will also be quiet high as storm surge insurance is virtually unheard of in Atlantic Canada. I wouldn't be surprised if it winds up being Canada's first billion-dollar storm; 4% of PEI is still without power almost 3 weeks after Fiona which is extremely uncommon for the Maritimes.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#97 Postby Teban54 » Wed Oct 12, 2022 3:46 pm

NorthieStangl wrote:
NorthieStangl wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:It's hard to say regarding Julia if it is worthy. Of the countries in that region, Costa Rica seems to be the most liberal when it comes to retiring names, but there have been weaker storms retired there before.


Amanda killed 40 people in May 2021 and it's still on the list, so Julia's (in addition to Hermine's) chances are iffy at this point. Might be too early to call. I won't be surprised if Julia got thrown into the can along with Fiona and Ian, but I'm not expecting it.

Hermine, at the moment, has an even lower chance since Spain has no history of retiring any name - the only European countries, as far as I know, that had done so are France (Klaus 1990 is an infamous example) and the UK (Fabian 2003, Paloma 2008), even though the Netherlands is also on the hurricane committee due to the multiple dependencies in the Caribbean. Also don't forget the Lorenzo debate from 2019 after it affected the Azores and many people are so sure that Portugal would ask for its retirement, and that didn't happen.

Fiona - 100%
Hermine - 25%
Ian - 100%
Julia - 50%


Alright, since Julia's death toll had rose considerably lately with dozens more still missing, I'm going to raise Julia's retirement chance to 75%. What stopped me from giving it a 100% chance is the fact that most of the deaths occurred in Venezuela, and with the ongoong political turmoil there I slightly doubt that they will take time to send a retirement request. I'm also not aware of any instance of Nicaragua sending out any retirement request either. Otto, Eta, and Iota were all retired at Costa Rica's insistence, and I suspect Joan was retired on Colombia's behalf.

Another complication with Julia's case is that many deaths in Venezuela may have occurred while the system was still an invest or TD13, thus not strongly associated with the name Julia itself.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#98 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 12, 2022 5:23 pm

Teban54 wrote:
NorthieStangl wrote:
NorthieStangl wrote:
Amanda killed 40 people in May 2021 and it's still on the list, so Julia's (in addition to Hermine's) chances are iffy at this point. Might be too early to call. I won't be surprised if Julia got thrown into the can along with Fiona and Ian, but I'm not expecting it.

Hermine, at the moment, has an even lower chance since Spain has no history of retiring any name - the only European countries, as far as I know, that had done so are France (Klaus 1990 is an infamous example) and the UK (Fabian 2003, Paloma 2008), even though the Netherlands is also on the hurricane committee due to the multiple dependencies in the Caribbean. Also don't forget the Lorenzo debate from 2019 after it affected the Azores and many people are so sure that Portugal would ask for its retirement, and that didn't happen.

Fiona - 100%
Hermine - 25%
Ian - 100%
Julia - 50%


Alright, since Julia's death toll had rose considerably lately with dozens more still missing, I'm going to raise Julia's retirement chance to 75%. What stopped me from giving it a 100% chance is the fact that most of the deaths occurred in Venezuela, and with the ongoong political turmoil there I slightly doubt that they will take time to send a retirement request. I'm also not aware of any instance of Nicaragua sending out any retirement request either. Otto, Eta, and Iota were all retired at Costa Rica's insistence, and I suspect Joan was retired on Colombia's behalf.

Another complication with Julia's case is that many deaths in Venezuela may have occurred while the system was still an invest or TD13, thus not strongly associated with the name Julia itself.


Nate's worst damage was from being a depression in 2017 and still got retired.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#99 Postby Tekken_Guy » Wed Oct 12, 2022 7:53 pm

NorthieStangl wrote:
NorthieStangl wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:It's hard to say regarding Julia if it is worthy. Of the countries in that region, Costa Rica seems to be the most liberal when it comes to retiring names, but there have been weaker storms retired there before.


Amanda killed 40 people in May 2021 and it's still on the list, so Julia's (in addition to Hermine's) chances are iffy at this point. Might be too early to call. I won't be surprised if Julia got thrown into the can along with Fiona and Ian, but I'm not expecting it.

Hermine, at the moment, has an even lower chance since Spain has no history of retiring any name - the only European countries, as far as I know, that had done so are France (Klaus 1990 is an infamous example) and the UK (Fabian 2003, Paloma 2008), even though the Netherlands is also on the hurricane committee due to the multiple dependencies in the Caribbean. Also don't forget the Lorenzo debate from 2019 after it affected the Azores and many people are so sure that Portugal would ask for its retirement, and that didn't happen.

Fiona - 100%
Hermine - 25%
Ian - 100%
Julia - 50%


Alright, since Julia's death toll had rose considerably lately with dozens more still missing, I'm going to raise Julia's retirement chance to 75%. What stopped me from giving it a 100% chance is the fact that most of the deaths occurred in Venezuela, and with the ongoong political turmoil there I slightly doubt that they will take time to send a retirement request. I'm also not aware of any instance of Nicaragua sending out any retirement request either. Otto, Eta, and Iota were all retired at Costa Rica's insistence, and I suspect Joan was retired on Colombia's behalf.


Julia will not be retired barring any surprises. The damage it did was almost all done as an unnamed tropical depression to a country that almost never retires names. Damage in Cenrral America was very minimal. Nate is not a good comparison since it did its damage mostly to Costa Rica.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#100 Postby Cleveland Kent Evans » Thu Oct 13, 2022 9:25 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
zal0phus wrote:
Teban54 wrote:This makes me wonder why they ended up choosing Julia in 2004 followed by Julian in 2015 for adjacent naming lists, when there are so many male and female J names that sound nothing like each other. Imagine a future year where Julia affects the same area that Julian did in the previous year...


The only workaround to that I could possibly see is if Julian is intended to be pronounced in Spanish. So "HOO-le-awn" instead of "JOO-li-ihn"


According to the cyclone name pronunciation guide made by NHC, it's pronounced the English way not the Spanish way. Still, I'm unsure why they decided to replace Joaquin with Julian when Julia already existed..


You all have to remember who the people are who are making these decisions. These are meteorologists, not people particularly interesting in or knowledgeable about names and naming as an issue. They are almost surely mostly middle-aged or older men who don't care about the name lists except as quick and easy designations for storms.

As I understand it, when the local weather bureaus in any country ask for a name to be retired, they also send along three suggested replacements. As far as I know, the international committe almost always just chooses the first name on the list of three that's sent. Most of the responsibility for replacing Joaquin with Julian goes to whoever in the country that requested Joaquin's retirement came up with the list of three possibilities.

Though technically it's "the UK" that has a representative on the committee, it was local people in Bermuda and the Cayman Islands that made the decisions to ask for Fabian and Paloma to be retired. I have read that the weather bureau in Bermuda actually held a contest asking for suggestions for replacement names from the general public in Bermuda, which is how they came up with Fred. As for the Caymans, people interested in names thought it odd when Paloma was replaced with Paulette even though Paula was already on the Atlantic lists. This almost surely came about just because Paulette was the woman's "P" name that most easily came to mind for whoever in the Caymans was asking for Paloma's retirement. A tiny bit of Googling comes up with the following link to information about a woman named Paulette who has been very prominent in broadcasting in the Caymans for years, and who is herself a native of Cayman Brac, the island that was most devastated by Paloma. I think there's a good chance replacing Paloma with Paulette was a nod to her, whether consciously or unconsciously.

https://www.radiocayman.gov.ky/sales-re ... lly-bailey

I also don't think it's really a big issue to have similar sounding names on lists for different years. What they really should be paying attention to is avoiding putting very similar names on both the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic lists in the same year. It's not going to be very confusing to have Julia and Julian both in the Atlantic in their separate years, but if you have a Julian along Mexico's east coast at the same time there was a Julia in the Gulf, that could cause confusion which really could lead to some tragic consequences.
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