2022 Tropical Cyclone Retirements: Fiona / Ian retired--New names for 2028 list=Farrah / Idris

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Teban54
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#101 Postby Teban54 » Thu Oct 13, 2022 9:34 am

Cleveland Kent Evans wrote:I also don't think it's really a big issue to have similar sounding names on lists for different years. What they really should be paying attention to is avoiding putting very similar names on both the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic lists in the same year. It's not going to be very confusing to have Julia and Julian both in the Atlantic in their separate years, but if you have a Julian along Mexico's east coast at the same time there was a Julia in the Gulf, that could cause confusion which really could lead to some tragic consequences.

Sara and Tara is a example that already exists. (IIRC, Susan was an option for Sandy's replacement. It might even have been the #1 option, but I could be wrong.)

Sometimes there are similar names on the same list in the same basin too... Arthur and Bertha come to mind.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#102 Postby GSBHurricane » Thu Oct 13, 2022 11:03 am

NorthieStangl wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:It's hard to say regarding Julia if it is worthy. Of the countries in that region, Costa Rica seems to be the most liberal when it comes to retiring names, but there have been weaker storms retired there before.


Amanda killed 40 people in May 2021 and it's still on the list, so Julia's (in addition to Hermine's) chances are iffy at this point. Might be too early to call. I won't be surprised if Julia got thrown into the can along with Fiona and Ian, but I'm not expecting it.

Hermine, at the moment, has an even lower chance since Spain has no history of retiring any name - the only European countries, as far as I know, that had done so are France (Klaus 1990 is an infamous example) and the UK (Fabian 2003, Paloma 2008), even though the Netherlands is also on the hurricane committee due to the multiple dependencies in the Caribbean. Also don't forget the Lorenzo debate from 2019 after it affected the Azores and many people are so sure that Portugal would ask for its retirement, and that didn't happen.

Fiona - 100%
Hermine - 25%
Ian - 100%
Julia - 50%


I don't think Hermine will be retired. Even with the death toll, Spain isn't on the Hurricane Committee so it can't formally request anything. The UK, France, and the Netherlands are the only European countries on the committee and that is largely due to their Caribbean possessions. I recall finding that France requested all three retirees in 2007 (Dean, Felix, and Noel). Actually, I just saw it was Bermuda and the British Caribbean Territories that made those requests, not Britain itself.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#103 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 13, 2022 1:06 pm

Who has made the decisions for recent retirements since 2010 (in reverse chronological order):

Ida - USA

Laura - USA
Eta - Costa Rica
Iota - Costa Rica

Dorian - Bahamas

Florence - USA
Michael - USA

Harvey - USA
Irma - USA (and others?)
Maria - USA (and others?)
Nate - Costa Rica

Matthew - Haiti
Otto - Costa Rica

Erika - Dominica
Joaquin - USA

Ingrid - Mexico

Sandy - USA

Irene - USA

Igor - Canada
Tomas - St. Lucia
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#104 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Oct 13, 2022 1:15 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Who has made the decisions for recent retirements since 2010 (in reverse chronological order):

Ida - USA

Laura - USA
Eta - Costa Rica
Iota - Costa Rica

Dorian - Bahamas

Florence - USA
Michael - USA

Harvey - USA
Irma - USA (and others?)
Maria - USA (and others?)
Nate - Costa Rica

Matthew - Haiti
Otto - Costa Rica

Erika - Dominica
Joaquin - USA

Ingrid - Mexico

Sandy - USA

Irene - USA

Igor - Canada
Tomas - St. Lucia


Didn't Joaquin also strike the Bahamas ?
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#105 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 13, 2022 1:17 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Who has made the decisions for recent retirements since 2010 (in reverse chronological order):

Ida - USA

Laura - USA
Eta - Costa Rica
Iota - Costa Rica

Dorian - Bahamas

Florence - USA
Michael - USA

Harvey - USA
Irma - USA (and others?)
Maria - USA (and others?)
Nate - Costa Rica

Matthew - Haiti
Otto - Costa Rica

Erika - Dominica
Joaquin - USA

Ingrid - Mexico

Sandy - USA

Irene - USA

Igor - Canada
Tomas - St. Lucia


Didn't Joaquin also strike the Bahamas ?


Yes, but I don't think they made the case.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#106 Postby Teban54 » Thu Oct 13, 2022 2:32 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Who has made the decisions for recent retirements since 2010 (in reverse chronological order):

Ida - USA

Laura - USA
Eta - Costa Rica
Iota - Costa Rica

Dorian - Bahamas

Florence - USA
Michael - USA

Harvey - USA
Irma - USA (and others?)
Maria - USA (and others?)
Nate - Costa Rica

Matthew - Haiti
Otto - Costa Rica

Erika - Dominica
Joaquin - USA

Ingrid - Mexico

Sandy - USA

Irene - USA

Igor - Canada
Tomas - St. Lucia

Does this consider if multiple countries requested retirement? I can't imagine Costa Rica being the only country that requested Eta and Iota.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#107 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Oct 13, 2022 11:38 pm

I doubt Venezuela has any say in retirements and that country has the majority of the deaths from Julia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Julia_(2022)
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#108 Postby GSBHurricane » Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:39 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Who has made the decisions for recent retirements since 2010 (in reverse chronological order):

Ida - USA

Laura - USA
Eta - Costa Rica
Iota - Costa Rica

Dorian - Bahamas

Florence - USA
Michael - USA

Harvey - USA
Irma - USA (and others?)
Maria - USA (and others?)
Nate - Costa Rica

Matthew - Haiti
Otto - Costa Rica

Erika - Dominica
Joaquin - USA

Ingrid - Mexico

Sandy - USA

Irene - USA

Igor - Canada
Tomas - St. Lucia


For Tomas, Curaçao and Costa Rica also requested its retirement. Cuba requested Matthew as well. For Maria, I’m guessing Dominica requested it since Margot is a French name and French is a common vernacular language on that island and that damage there totaled 226% of its GDP.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#109 Postby GSBHurricane » Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:41 am

Sciencerocks wrote:I doubt Venezuela has any say in retirements and that country has the majority of the deaths from Julia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Julia_(2022)

Venezuelan is on the committee so a request is possible.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#110 Postby Cleveland Kent Evans » Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:54 am

GSBHurricane wrote:I don't think Hermine will be retired. Even with the death toll, Spain isn't on the Hurricane Committee so it can't formally request anything. The UK, France, and the Netherlands are the only European countries on the committee and that is largely due to their Caribbean possessions. I recall finding that France requested all three retirees in 2007 (Dean, Felix, and Noel). Actually, I just saw it was Bermuda and the British Caribbean Territories that made those requests, not Britain itself.


Why would Spain have to have a representative on the committee to "formally request" a name to be retired? I am sure someone in the official weather agency in Spain knows how to write a letter formally requesting the name be retired and send it to the World Meteorological Organization.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#111 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:55 pm

Cleveland Kent Evans wrote:
GSBHurricane wrote:I don't think Hermine will be retired. Even with the death toll, Spain isn't on the Hurricane Committee so it can't formally request anything. The UK, France, and the Netherlands are the only European countries on the committee and that is largely due to their Caribbean possessions. I recall finding that France requested all three retirees in 2007 (Dean, Felix, and Noel). Actually, I just saw it was Bermuda and the British Caribbean Territories that made those requests, not Britain itself.


Why would Spain have to have a representative on the committee to "formally request" a name to be retired? I am sure someone in the official weather agency in Spain knows how to write a letter formally requesting the name be retired and send it to the World Meteorological Organization.


It's very rare for a Tropical Cyclone to cause severe damage to Spain or part of its islands.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#112 Postby NorthieStangl » Fri Oct 21, 2022 4:33 pm

Tekken_Guy wrote:
NorthieStangl wrote:
NorthieStangl wrote:
Amanda killed 40 people in May 2021 and it's still on the list, so Julia's (in addition to Hermine's) chances are iffy at this point. Might be too early to call. I won't be surprised if Julia got thrown into the can along with Fiona and Ian, but I'm not expecting it.

Hermine, at the moment, has an even lower chance since Spain has no history of retiring any name - the only European countries, as far as I know, that had done so are France (Klaus 1990 is an infamous example) and the UK (Fabian 2003, Paloma 2008), even though the Netherlands is also on the hurricane committee due to the multiple dependencies in the Caribbean. Also don't forget the Lorenzo debate from 2019 after it affected the Azores and many people are so sure that Portugal would ask for its retirement, and that didn't happen.

Fiona - 100%
Hermine - 25%
Ian - 100%
Julia - 50%


Alright, since Julia's death toll had rose considerably lately with dozens more still missing, I'm going to raise Julia's retirement chance to 75%. What stopped me from giving it a 100% chance is the fact that most of the deaths occurred in Venezuela, and with the ongoong political turmoil there I slightly doubt that they will take time to send a retirement request. I'm also not aware of any instance of Nicaragua sending out any retirement request either. Otto, Eta, and Iota were all retired at Costa Rica's insistence, and I suspect Joan was retired on Colombia's behalf.


Julia will not be retired barring any surprises. The damage it did was almost all done as an unnamed tropical depression to a country that almost never retires names. Damage in Cenrral America was very minimal. Nate is not a good comparison since it did its damage mostly to Costa Rica.


Julia's damage in Central America wasn't "very minimal," I don't know what you had been drinking. Julia killed dozens of people there!
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#113 Postby GSBHurricane » Sat Oct 22, 2022 11:40 am

Cleveland Kent Evans wrote:
GSBHurricane wrote:I don't think Hermine will be retired. Even with the death toll, Spain isn't on the Hurricane Committee so it can't formally request anything. The UK, France, and the Netherlands are the only European countries on the committee and that is largely due to their Caribbean possessions. I recall finding that France requested all three retirees in 2007 (Dean, Felix, and Noel). Actually, I just saw it was Bermuda and the British Caribbean Territories that made those requests, not Britain itself.


Why would Spain have to have a representative on the committee to "formally request" a name to be retired? I am sure someone in the official weather agency in Spain knows how to write a letter formally requesting the name be retired and send it to the World Meteorological Organization.


I thought you had to be part of the committee unless the removal was for political/cultural reasons.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#114 Postby GSBHurricane » Sat Oct 22, 2022 11:42 am

NorthieStangl wrote:
Tekken_Guy wrote:
NorthieStangl wrote:
Alright, since Julia's death toll had rose considerably lately with dozens more still missing, I'm going to raise Julia's retirement chance to 75%. What stopped me from giving it a 100% chance is the fact that most of the deaths occurred in Venezuela, and with the ongoong political turmoil there I slightly doubt that they will take time to send a retirement request. I'm also not aware of any instance of Nicaragua sending out any retirement request either. Otto, Eta, and Iota were all retired at Costa Rica's insistence, and I suspect Joan was retired on Colombia's behalf.


Julia will not be retired barring any surprises. The damage it did was almost all done as an unnamed tropical depression to a country that almost never retires names. Damage in Cenrral America was very minimal. Nate is not a good comparison since it did its damage mostly to Costa Rica.


Julia's damage in Central America wasn't "very minimal," I don't know what you had been drinking. Julia killed dozens of people there!


I personally don’t think Julia will be retired. If you remove the death toll in Venezuela, you’re left with about 37 across the region scattered between several countries. There’s been worse in the region that hasn’t been retired (see Bret 1993 or Francelia). As far as damage goes, the only confirmed figures are in Nicaragua which are at $300 million in 2022 dollars. While impressive there’s been worse there too adjusted for inflation.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#115 Postby NorthieStangl » Sun Oct 23, 2022 10:31 am

I know that it's super early to speculate, but I wonder if Roslyn will be the first retired Pacific name since Patricia. It had been 7 years so it's relatively overdue.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#116 Postby Cleveland Kent Evans » Sun Oct 23, 2022 1:23 pm

GSBHurricane wrote:
Cleveland Kent Evans wrote:
GSBHurricane wrote:I don't think Hermine will be retired. Even with the death toll, Spain isn't on the Hurricane Committee so it can't formally request anything. The UK, France, and the Netherlands are the only European countries on the committee and that is largely due to their Caribbean possessions. I recall finding that France requested all three retirees in 2007 (Dean, Felix, and Noel). Actually, I just saw it was Bermuda and the British Caribbean Territories that made those requests, not Britain itself.


Why would Spain have to have a representative on the committee to "formally request" a name to be retired? I am sure someone in the official weather agency in Spain knows how to write a letter formally requesting the name be retired and send it to the World Meteorological Organization.


I thought you had to be part of the committee unless the removal was for political/cultural reasons.


Why would they have such a rule? It doesn't make sense. IF a country which normally doesn't have a representative on the committee were to have major effects from a storm, and the name was prominently remembered by its population. wouldn't it actually be MORE worthy of retirement than a storm which hit a country which frequently sees tropical storm damage? And why couldn't such a country request representation on the committee? Surely that's not something that is itself unchangeable?
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#117 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:23 am

Ian & Fiona will be retired without question.

Nicole has a shot at retirement too.
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#118 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 12, 2022 5:10 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Ian & Fiona will be retired without question.

Nicole has a shot at retirement too.


I think its chances are low. The only storm that had its peak at category 1 in Florida to be retired was Agnes, and that was not because of what it did there. Damage was probably less than any of the 2020 hurricanes in the eastern/central Gulf Coast (other than Laura).
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#119 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 12, 2022 5:17 pm

At this point I would say likelihood:

Alex - 0%
Bonnie - 0%
Colin - 0%
Danielle - 0%
Earl - 0%
Fiona - 95%
Gaston - 0%
Hermine - 5%
Ian - 100%
Julia - 55%
Karl - 0%
Lisa - 2%
Martin - 0%
Nicole - 15%
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Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#120 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Nov 12, 2022 6:46 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:At this point I would say likelihood:

Alex - 0%
Bonnie - 0%
Colin - 0%
Danielle - 0%
Earl - 0%
Fiona - 95%
Gaston - 0%
Hermine - 5%
Ian - 100%
Julia - 55%
Karl - 0%
Lisa - 2%
Martin - 0%
Nicole - 15%


Just curious but why is Fiona not 100%? :lol:
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