2022 Tropical Cyclone Retirements: Fiona / Ian retired--New names for 2028 list=Farrah / Idris

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8887
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#121 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:45 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:At this point I would say likelihood:

Alex - 0%
Bonnie - 0%
Colin - 0%
Danielle - 0%
Earl - 0%
Fiona - 95%
Gaston - 0%
Hermine - 5%
Ian - 100%
Julia - 55%
Karl - 0%
Lisa - 2%
Martin - 0%
Nicole - 15%


Just curious but why is Fiona not 100%? :lol:

Possibility of it being overshadowed by Ian.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 876
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#122 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Nov 13, 2022 12:24 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:At this point I would say likelihood:

Alex - 0%
Bonnie - 0%
Colin - 0%
Danielle - 0%
Earl - 0%
Fiona - 95%
Gaston - 0%
Hermine - 5%
Ian - 100%
Julia - 55%
Karl - 0%
Lisa - 2%
Martin - 0%
Nicole - 15%


Just curious but why is Fiona not 100%? :lol:

Possibility of it being overshadowed by Ian.


I don't know if it makes sense for a bad cyclone to be overshadowed by another bad cyclone. Granted, Ian was generally more expensive than Fiona, but one affected different areas than the other. That said, I'd give almost 100% chance of Fiona's name being retired. (To Shrek's sadness)
2 likes   
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
Sorry for the bad English sometimes!!!

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#123 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Nov 13, 2022 12:40 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:At this point I would say likelihood:

Alex - 0%
Bonnie - 0%
Colin - 0%
Danielle - 0%
Earl - 0%
Fiona - 95%
Gaston - 0%
Hermine - 5%
Ian - 100%
Julia - 55%
Karl - 0%
Lisa - 2%
Martin - 0%
Nicole - 15%


Just curious but why is Fiona not 100%? :lol:

Possibility of it being overshadowed by Ian.


They affected two different countries though, and Fiona was the costliest Canadian storm in recent times. Hard to see why Canada, which is also a country that is normally lenient with name retirements, would not want Fiona gone.
1 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

GSBHurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 157
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:12 am

Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#124 Postby GSBHurricane » Sat Nov 19, 2022 11:44 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
Just curious but why is Fiona not 100%? :lol:

Possibility of it being overshadowed by Ian.


They affected two different countries though, and Fiona was the costliest Canadian storm in recent times. Hard to see why Canada, which is also a country that is normally lenient with name retirements, would not want Fiona gone.

How is Canada lenient when they've only asked or Juan 2003 and Igor 2010 to be removed? But yes $500 million Canadian dollars in insured damages is a lock for retirement from Canada.
1 likes   

GSBHurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 157
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:12 am

Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#125 Postby GSBHurricane » Sat Nov 19, 2022 11:45 am

For the WPAC, I predict four names will be retired: Megi, Hinnamnor, Noru, and Nalgae. Hinnamnor for its effects on South Korea and everything else for their impact on the Philippines.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 876
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#126 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Nov 19, 2022 11:55 am

GSBHurricane wrote:For the WPAC, I predict four names will be retired: Megi, Hinnamnor, Noru, and Nalgae.

And Nanmadol could be retired as well.
Fatalities 4 total
Damage $1.2 billion (2022 USD)

Nanmadol was forecasted to be among the top five strongest typhoons to hit Japan.
0 likes   
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
Sorry for the bad English sometimes!!!

GSBHurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 157
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:12 am

Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#127 Postby GSBHurricane » Sun Nov 20, 2022 2:28 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:
GSBHurricane wrote:For the WPAC, I predict four names will be retired: Megi, Hinnamnor, Noru, and Nalgae.

And Nanmadol could be retired as well.
Fatalities 4 total
Damage $1.2 billion (2022 USD)

Nanmadol was forecasted to be among the top five strongest typhoons to hit Japan.

I am less sure about Nanmodol because it didn't get a special name for its impact on Japan like Faxai and Hagibis.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 876
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#128 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Nov 20, 2022 4:21 pm

GSBHurricane wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote:
GSBHurricane wrote:For the WPAC, I predict four names will be retired: Megi, Hinnamnor, Noru, and Nalgae.

And Nanmadol could be retired as well.
Fatalities 4 total
Damage $1.2 billion (2022 USD)

Nanmadol was forecasted to be among the top five strongest typhoons to hit Japan.

I am less sure about Nanmodol because it didn't get a special name for its impact on Japan like Faxai and Hagibis.

I don't know if receiving a special name is a requirement for the official name to be retired
1 likes   
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
Sorry for the bad English sometimes!!!

GSBHurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 157
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:12 am

Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#129 Postby GSBHurricane » Tue Nov 22, 2022 11:11 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:
GSBHurricane wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote:And Nanmadol could be retired as well.
Fatalities 4 total
Damage $1.2 billion (2022 USD)

Nanmadol was forecasted to be among the top five strongest typhoons to hit Japan.

I am less sure about Nanmodol because it didn't get a special name for its impact on Japan like Faxai and Hagibis.

I don't know if receiving a special name is a requirement for the official name to be retired

Faxai and Hagibis were the first typhoons in the WMO era to receive special names from Japan due to their impacts on Japan. You can argue Jebi should've received a name for its damage but apparently, its impact didn't extend beyond monetary damage in the way the other two did. You need to do something special to receive such a name from Japan and I'm not sure. I don't think it's a coincidence those two names were requested by Japan due to their special status and the first two names to ever be requested by Japan.
1 likes   

PavelGaborik10
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 403
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2018 3:23 pm

Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#130 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Sun Dec 04, 2022 3:18 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:At this point I would say likelihood:

Alex - 0%
Bonnie - 0%
Colin - 0%
Danielle - 0%
Earl - 0%
Fiona - 95%
Gaston - 0%
Hermine - 5%
Ian - 100%
Julia - 55%
Karl - 0%
Lisa - 2%
Martin - 0%
Nicole - 15%


Just curious but why is Fiona not 100%? :lol:

Possibility of it being overshadowed by Ian.


Really bad reasoning here. Juan, Igor were both retired and Fiona was significantly stronger/more impactful than both.

Fiona absolutely destroyed areas that are 50 feet above sea level, used to getting smacked with absolutely huge storms, with 50+ foot waves that wiped out entire communities.

Just because it hit an area that is less prone to impacts doesn't change anything, Fiona is easily the strongest cyclone to hit Canada and is absolutely 100% going to be retired, there are no "buts" about it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGPzlzx6X4Y&t=312s

Some of this damage is just absolutely absurd for a storm that was "only" a category 2 strength cyclone at landfall.
5 likes   

al78
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 240
Joined: Thu Nov 01, 2018 12:20 pm

Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#131 Postby al78 » Fri Dec 30, 2022 1:53 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
Really bad reasoning here. Juan, Igor were both retired and Fiona was significantly stronger/more impactful than both.

Fiona absolutely destroyed areas that are 50 feet above sea level, used to getting smacked with absolutely huge storms, with 50+ foot waves that wiped out entire communities.

Just because it hit an area that is less prone to impacts doesn't change anything, Fiona is easily the strongest cyclone to hit Canada and is absolutely 100% going to be retired, there are no "buts" about it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGPzlzx6X4Y&t=312s

Some of this damage is just absolutely absurd for a storm that was "only" a category 2 strength cyclone at landfall.


Some spectacular damage in that footage. Again, as I often see in these aftermath videos, some buildings look to have survived unscathed whereas others have been badly damaged and not just from the surge/waves. It also looks like utility poles were notably not designed to withstand winds as strong as what were observed in Fiona, which is a little surprising as I would expect that part of Canada to be susceptible to some severe windstorms so would have thought those poles would have put up a bit more resistance, unless Fiona's peak winds were extreme or unprecedented.
0 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#132 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Jan 07, 2023 11:35 pm

So much like the historic devastating, powerful hurricanes like Andrew, Mitch, and Wilma, Ian on a false-colorized image looks extremely badass. Will breathe a sigh of relief once its retirement becomes formalized later in March.

Image
2 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

GSBHurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 157
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:12 am

Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#133 Postby GSBHurricane » Tue Feb 07, 2023 11:03 am

Looks like, as of last month, that the Philippines could request Megi, Ma-On, Noru, and Nalgae. If South Korea requests Hinnamnor too we could be seeing five names going in the WPAC.

https://twitter.com/arielrojasPH/status ... 9077464070
0 likes   

Astromanía
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 735
Age: 25
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:34 pm
Location: Monterrey, N.L, México

Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#134 Postby Astromanía » Tue Feb 07, 2023 5:42 pm

Roslyn was impressive but it won't be retired, anyway I just watch Josh Morgerman video from this storm and wow such a strong one, history may be different if it would have made landfall in a big city as Mazatlan
0 likes   

GSBHurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 157
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:12 am

Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#135 Postby GSBHurricane » Thu Feb 09, 2023 12:14 pm

This pretty much confirms the likely axing of Agaton, Florita, Karding, and Paeng from PAGASA and probably their international counterparts (Megi, Ma-On, Noru, and Nalgae):

https://twitter.com/arielrojasPH/status ... YhIuoIQa1Q
1 likes   

NotoSans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1366
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#136 Postby NotoSans » Wed Feb 15, 2023 11:32 pm

0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.

User avatar
Iune
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 291
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2008 12:23 pm
Location: New York City

Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#137 Postby Iune » Thu Feb 16, 2023 12:44 pm

Ma-on seems particularly surprising — not a lot of deaths or fatalities.
0 likes   
Floyd 1999 · Irene 2011 · Sandy 2012

GSBHurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 157
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:12 am

Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#138 Postby GSBHurricane » Thu Feb 16, 2023 1:09 pm

Iune wrote:Ma-on seems particularly surprising — not a lot of deaths or fatalities.

Ma-On met the billion peso mark which automatically qualifies its PAGASA name for retirement and the Philippines has been consistent in requesting the international names of these storms since 2015. The exclusion of Noru and Nalgae is the more confusing part since the Philippines plans on retiring their PAGASA names for meeting their criteria. Although the working document that was originally posted on the Typhoon committee website has been taken down which possibly means Noru and Nalgae are going to be added.
0 likes   

NotoSans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1366
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#139 Postby NotoSans » Mon Feb 20, 2023 11:11 am

PAGASA has filed additional requests to retire Noru and Nalgae. 9 names to the dust bin this year.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33391
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2022 Cyclones Retirement

#140 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Mar 10, 2023 10:39 pm

Based on the TCR and a lot of Julia's deaths being in Venezuela on the fringes, I'd knock back the probability some as they are likely not a country that would think much about it.

Still, once the WMO meets, we can be pretty confident that Fiona and Ian will be retired.
1 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: NessFrogVenom and 41 guests