Tropical Wave Over West Africa (Is Invest 90L)

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Tropical Wave Over West Africa (Is Invest 90L)

#1 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 20, 2022 12:53 pm

Will this one steal the name Hermine or break the I curse as Ian?

Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/AOI-east-of-Cape-Verde.png

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in
a couple of days. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear
marginally favorable for some development while the system moves
northward between west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands through the
end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (0/20)

#2 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Sep 20, 2022 1:05 pm

That's certainly an interesting track. Not sure I've seen anything go straight north that far east
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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (0/20)

#3 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Sep 20, 2022 1:43 pm

That is weird, it looks like it's standing upright. :lol:
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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (0/20)

#4 Postby Teban54 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 1:46 pm

Not surprising as I noted in the models thread earlier. The 12z GFS run was probably what pulled the trigger.

This is heading straight into one of the least favorable regions for development in the MDR. If this becomes a TS, it would really mean the extremely unfavorable base state that lasted until the first half of September has changed.
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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (0/20)

#5 Postby Europa non è lontana » Tue Sep 20, 2022 1:55 pm

Tropical cyclones in this part of the Atlantic aren't unprecedented - Becky 1962, Ginger 1967, and Tropical Storm Ten of 1988 come to mind - although a development like this would certainly be unusual.
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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (0/20)

#6 Postby NotSparta » Tue Sep 20, 2022 2:55 pm

Given the calendar and a general warming of the SSTAs, this will probably have half decent SSTs until it hits 20N

Image

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (0/40)

#7 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:06 pm

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Thursday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
at least gradual development of the system for a couple days
thereafter while the system moves slowly northward between west
Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (10/50)

#8 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:57 am

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Thursday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
at least gradual development of the system for a couple days
thereafter while the system moves slowly northward, between west
Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands, through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (10/50)

#9 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:36 am

I searched out this thread just to state how massive the circulation is for this wave. Wow! :double:
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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (10/50)

#10 Postby Fancy1001 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:46 am

Iceresistance wrote:Will this one steal the name Hermine or break the I curse as Ian?

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/AOI-east-of-Cape-Verde.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/AOI-east-of-Cape-Verde.png

I’m not sure why this would break the I curse, I storms are always either monstrous or pathetic, if this became Ian then it would fall under the pathetic category.
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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (10/50)

#11 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:56 am

Fancy1001 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Will this one steal the name Hermine or break the I curse as Ian?

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/AOI-east-of-Cape-Verde.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/AOI-east-of-Cape-Verde.png

I’m not sure why this would break the I curse, I storms are always either monstrous or pathetic, if this became Ian then it would fall under the pathetic category.


The I curse is that every storm name that begins with an 'I' is retired every year, even 2020 did not escape it (Iota).
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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (20/50)

#12 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:56 am

Already some nice rotation at 14N 12W. For once, I think the model runs showing this developing immediately after exiting Africa has a chance to verify.
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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (30/50)

#13 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:59 pm

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Thursday. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form
this weekend while the system moves slowly northward, between west
Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
.
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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (50/60)

#14 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:45 pm

Showers and thunderstorms located near the west coast of Africa are
associated with a tropical wave that is forecast to move over the
far eastern Atlantic waters on Thursday. Thereafter, environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development, and a
tropical depression could form by this weekend while the system
moves slowly northward, between west Africa and the Cabo Verde
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (50/60)

#15 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:19 pm

cycloneye wrote:Showers and thunderstorms located near the west coast of Africa are
associated with a tropical wave that is forecast to move over the
far eastern Atlantic waters on Thursday. Thereafter, environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development, and a
tropical depression could form by this weekend while the system
moves slowly northward, between west Africa and the Cabo Verde
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.


Well that escalated quickly, maybe this system will steal the name Hermine! :D
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (50/60)

#16 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:33 pm

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (50/60)

#17 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 22, 2022 4:34 am

Now at 60/60% chance.
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (50/60)

#18 Postby ouragans » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:23 am

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms located near the west coast of Africa are
associated with a tropical wave that has emerged over the warm
waters of the far eastern Atlantic. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for some development, and a tropical
depression could form by this weekend while the system moves slowly
northward, between west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: Tropical Wave Over West Africa (Is Invest 90L)

#19 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:04 am

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