Tropical Wave SW of the Cape Verde Islands (Is Invest 99L)

[AJC3]

This may wind up being a short thread, but it's not looking all that bad this evening. Oddly enough, there's no wave being analyzed in that location in the 8 PM TWD.

[aspen]

Last time I checked, this had a little bit of activity on the ensembles. Maybe it’ll be another sleeper like Fiona, Gaston, and 98L.

[weeniepatrol]

Last time I checked, this had a little bit of activity on the ensembles. Maybe it’ll be another sleeper like Fiona, Gaston, and 98L.

[Hammy]

Surprised there's no mention in the TWO

[cycloneye]

[Teban54]

CMC has been developing this for a while now, but minimal support from other models.

Regardless of development, most models show the wave stalling in the Central Atlantic and then pulled north.

[galaxy401]

Got a mention now:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

3. East Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower activity. Slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days
as it moves northwestward and then westward over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Hammy]

0/20 yet pretty close to a TD. NHC is placing too much reliance on model output this season rather than real time data, can't help wonder if they were spooked by August inactivity

[ouragans]

Soon to be Invest, I think

3. East Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
a tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Despite a dry environment, slow development
of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves
northwestward and then westward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Category5Kaiju]

I will literally eat 100 Warheads at once if this system steals the name Hermine, giving 98L the chance to yet again continue the unholy I curse.

[Landy]

Looks better than what the models would've led one to believe. Let's see...

[underthwx]

Looking healthy on satellite, could this be Hermine possibly, before 98L has a chance to attain a nane?

[underthwx]

System sure looking well organized at this point in time, do any of you think the NHC raises percentage to high, skipping the medium level?

[AJC3]

Still has a solid low level Vort signature below 10N, which seems a few degrees south of the strongest turning of low cloud lines on visible satellite.

I continue to find it really odd that it's still not being mentioned in the Atlantic TWD, even though it's being called a t-wave in the TWO. Given the climatological frequency with which AEW's exit Africa, especially this time of year, it's very unlikely that some sort of low amplitude wave didn't sneak offshore without being noticed.

[MississippiWx]

Yeah, uh, this looks to be on the verge of tropical depression quality already. The lack of model support is why the NHC isn't enthused, but sometimes real-time speaks louder. Honestly, not many models showed Fiona either, much less it becoming a Cat 4.

[Teban54]

Yeah, uh, this looks to be on the verge of tropical depression quality already. The lack of model support is why the NHC isn't enthused, but sometimes real-time speaks louder. Honestly, not many models showed Fiona either, much less it becoming a Cat 4.

NHC did get "burned" by PTC4 in some sense: no models showed development but the system looked like it was on the way to becoming a TD, which didn't happen.

I can understand why they might want to be cautious after that.

[cycloneye]

Invest 99L is up